Russia is stuck in Ukraine, and Washington fears that Moscow could become a „junior partner” of China, if not its vassal. America would stand to gain if it offered Russia a way out of this tight spot.
The United States could help Moscow break free from Beijing’s oppressive influence, and thus the Trump administration could increase pressure on China, as stated in an opinion article published by Kyiv Post.
For Putin, it would be a breath of fresh air at the last moment. The great Russian bear is fatally wounded, thanks to the courage, resistance, and professionalism of Ukrainian fighters. Up to a million soldiers from Russia and North Korea have been killed, wounded, or taken prisoner on the front lines. Thousands of Russian tanks, artillery pieces, air defense systems, armored personnel carriers, and infantry fighting vehicles have been destroyed.
Sanctions are working. Military spending now accounts for 40% of Russia's budget. Inflation is at 10%. The Central Bank of Russia's key interest rate is 21%. Moscow cannot afford to use public funds to manufacture weapons systems, then destroy them on the battlefield and call it "economic growth."
Who Wants the Great Bear with Its Tail Between Its Legs
Although Washington has been planning and preparing for this moment since at least 1945, Europe, Turkey, and China have been dreaming of this moment for centuries. Now, it seems that America is trying to clean up the mess created by Russian war criminals to save Russia from Ukraine, but perhaps also from China, according to George Monastiriakos, a member of the Center for Security Policy, a think tank in Geneva.
To support his hypothesis of a US-Russia understanding against China, the author suggests going back to the 19th century when the Russian Empire expanded eastward through Central Asia to the Pacific Ocean at a historic pace, while the Qing dynasty was losing territory to foreign powers under what are now known as "unequal treaties." The most famous of these concessions came from the Opium Wars fought between Britain and China, resulting in the cession of Hong Kong to London.
Two treaties from this era are crucial to understanding the history of relations between Russia and China: firstly, the Treaty of Aigun in 1858, through which Chinese territory north of the Amur River was ceded to the Russian Empire. Secondly, the Treaty of Beijing in 1860. Negotiated under the threat of burning the city down, the document attests to the cession of territory between the Ussuri River and the Pacific Ocean to Russia.
A century later, in 1969, tensions between China and the USSR turned into a direct military confrontation along the same Ussuri River. Today, this area is part of Russia's Far Eastern Federal District. It represents about 40% of Russia's territory and borders the Arctic Ocean, Pacific Ocean, Mongolia, China, Japan, and the United States.
Although larger than the European Union and nearly twice the size of India, this resource-rich region barely has a population of eight million people. In contrast, China's provinces bordering this area, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, each have at least 30 and 24 million inhabitants, respectively.
Why China Wants a Weak Russia
Indeed, since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Beijing and Moscow have signed a series of agreements to demarcate their borders. But among thieves, there is little honor. After all, the so-called Axis of Autocracies is a series of short-term convenience partnerships – not a military alliance like NATO or a civilizational project like the European Union, Monastiriakos emphasizes.
In his view, China has an interest in Russia being weakened enough to depend on it. But it also wants Moscow to be strong enough to keep fighting against Kiev and the West. Among other things, this means that while Moscow remains stuck in Ukraine, it can no longer defend the Russo-Chinese border, nearly 4,300 kilometers long. Beijing has already started referring to cities in this region, including the port of Vladivostok in the Pacific, by their pre-Russian occupation names.
Could Moscow have convinced Washington that Beijing might occupy or annex parts of the Far Eastern Federal District? Hard to say. But a territorial change of this magnitude would make Moscow's annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhia, and regions in Kherson seem insignificant in comparison to such a loss, the author considers.
This could explain Washington's absurd discussions about Russian-American interests in the Arctic, as well as the US's concern about China's activities on the other side of the Bering Strait. From abandoning Europe to turning Canada into the 51st American state to taking Greenland from Denmark, why would America burn all the bridges it has built in the last 80 years to appease the Russian dictator? - Monastiriakos wonders.
This could be yet another unintended consequence of Russia's illegal and "idiotic" invasion of Ukraine, a huge international crisis created, from A to Z, by the Kremlin regime.
Washington has spent trillions of dollars over eight decades fighting against Russia, and it's astonishing that America is now trying to shield it from the consequences it should face for all the misery it has caused, the author concludes.
T.D.