In the afternoon of March 4th, a mysterious statement, not so much by its content but by its author, is distributed to the entire world by the TASS news agency from Russia.
The author is the SVR, the external intelligence service of the Kremlin, led by Sergey Naryshkin.
„The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who played a key role in declaring the results of the first round of the presidential elections in Romania invalid, has asked the current authorities in Bucharest to ban Georgescu from participating in the second round in May.
She warned that if this representative of the non-systemic forces continues his electoral campaign, the European Union will restrict Romania's access to its funds," the statement says, which was never true at any time. But what sane person in this world expects the SVR to tell the truth?
"After an attack on Georgescu, it is very likely that the European liberal mainstream will make new attempts to stifle dissent in the EU. Their main target will be Hungary, as a bastion of European conservatism, and a good pretext will be the upcoming parliamentary elections in that country next year," the SVR statement further states.
The message transmitted by Sergey Naryshkin, a longtime collaborator of Putin and head of the foreign intelligence agency, represents a turning point in the action mode of Russian espionage in the countries of the European Union.
Glorious Withdrawal
In the article published on March 6th "Roasting a Spy. A Shadow War that Weakened Romania and Which It Doesn't Know If It Won", according to the analysis of the SVR statement and the ways of action of Russian intelligence services, we indicated that the message transmitted by SVR actually means an announcement for Russian agents involved in supporting Călin Georgescu in Romania to stop and withdraw.
The SVR statement was released a day before the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared "persona non grata on Romanian territory the military, air, and naval attaché of the Russian Federation in Bucharest, as well as his deputy, for engaging in activities that contravene the provisions of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations of 1961."
The two were involved in extensive espionage operations and coordinated multiple agents, supported campaigns for Călin Georgescu, and were also connected with Horațiu Potra.
Shortly after the SVR message, there is a decrease in the intensity of the bombardment with false information on social networks.
Several users targeted by Russian trolls announce that they have significantly reduced their presence.
But the most significant disappearance from the scene is that of the pro-Russian candidate Călin Georgescu himself, who, after being invalidated by the BEC, has interrupted his "political operations."
On March 11, he posted a message on Facebook informing his supporters, indirectly, that he refuses to choose a successor to his program.
Why would a presidential candidate, who has just gathered a dowry of over 2 million votes, fail to continue his political activity?
Why didn't Călin Georgescu ask to become the president of an extremist parliamentary party like POT or AUR, if his political force is real?
And then, shortly after Georgescu's withdrawal, chaos began within the extremist movement in Romania.
Chaos Among Extremists
The leaders of AUR and POT have submitted their presidential candidacies, announcing that one of them will withdraw if both are validated.
Then, Anton Pisaroglu entered the scene, a controversial figure, former advisor to Călin Georgescu, who boasted that he would run for office.
But just hours before the legal deadline set by the BEC for entering the presidential race, he issued an unexpected statement on his Facebook page: "...I have decided that it is better for our movement not to proceed further."
These disordered movements and decisions are compounded by tensions within AUR, where Claudiu Târziu, former co-president of the party, challenges the position of George Simion, the current leader of the party.
Also, the relationship between Anamaria Gavrilă, president of POT, and the AUR leader is not going well, with the two having a series of unresolved conflicts stemming from the past when they were party colleagues.
Validating Mr. Simion's candidacy is a sign that the fragmentation plan has begun. It is a sign that neither George Simion nor Mrs. Gavrilă understood what is to come. They did not understand anything from the pact. They did not understand the real strategy. Fragmentation, demonization, relentless antagonization will follow. The anti-system sovereignist movement will not even reach the final. And the crucial second round, which was stolen from us, will be erased from history. It will not even be acknowledged that it existed. I do not want and should not be complicit in this. We must not be!
Anton Pisaroglu, Călin Georgescu's advisor
The only logical explanation that can describe this Brownian motion among Romanian extremists is indicated by the SVR statement, the Russian intelligence agency, which, through an unprecedented gesture, assumed Călin Georgescu.
Exposure also represents the stoppage of funds coming from Moscow to networks in Romania, and the chaos is a signal that there is no longer coordination from the Kremlin, primarily carried out through the Russian Embassy in Romania and the infrastructure created by the diplomatic representation in recent years.
Without money and without strategy, the extremist movement in Romania will fragment and transform due to internal conflicts.
Currently, the reasons for the reduction in the intensity of Kremlin's political operations in Romania are not clear. They will be much clearer in the near future, depending on how events unfold.
Below, I list some of the possible causes from which one or more could have led to the decision of the SVR:
- Russia has achieved its objectives in Romania, reducing the country's influence in the region and significantly weakening political and electoral processes.
- The Kremlin's intelligence services are changing their course of action after the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House, a leader close to Vladimir Putin.
- The delayed but extensive reaction of Romania's intelligence services has endangered the networks built here in the last decade, and the Kremlin has decided to salvage what can still be saved.
- The very high cost of operations conducted both online and offline, compared to the results obtained, was interpreted as disproportionate in the complicated economic context of Russia.
- The fact that at the level of the European Union and Great Britain, a real shadow war against Russian espionage has been unleashed.
The causes are not clear, but the recent events indicate one or more of the above.
By analyzing the reports of the secret services in Romania, those in France, made public, but also the cost of the campaigns carried out by pro-Russian influencers in the USA, the estimated quotation of the "Călin Georgescu, president" operation has exceeded 100 million euros, which is not insignificant for a candidate who reported zero expenses.