Ukraine is responding, especially by targeting Russia’s oil installations, but analysts do not expect this to be enough to convince Putin to end the war. On the contrary, the Kremlin leader is buying time and taking full advantage of the ambiguous stance of US President Donald Trump.
After high hopes for peace, Ukraine was hit by the second-largest attack on Kyiv since the beginning of the war. Following the Alaska summit between Trump and Putin and the meetings in Washington between the American president and Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders, nothing has changed: Russia continues to kill innocent people.
Why is Vladimir Putin doing this? In short, because he can. The Russian president believes he is winning this war, and it is hard to avoid the conclusion that he is using diplomacy to buy time while continuing to crush the will of Ukrainians to win, as stated in an analysis published Friday by Sky News.
A Titanic Struggle between East and West
At this moment, no one is stopping Putin. Ukraine is responding, especially targeting Russia's oil units, many of which are engulfed in thick black smoke after being hit by long-range Ukrainian drones.
Kyiv is targeting the enemy's "Achilles' heel," but analysts do not expect this to be enough to convince him to end this war.
The West is divided between Europe, which wants a ceasefire and much harsher sanctions, and Donald Trump, who, it seems, does not want to, always more willing to sympathize with the Russians than with Ukraine.
Every time the US president has condemned Russia for such attacks, he has done nothing concrete to punish it.
More worrying for Ukrainians is the fact that Russians are taking control in the drone war, taking Iranian technology and turning it into faster drones that Ukrainians find increasingly difficult to shoot down.
It is anticipated that by winter, up to 1,000 drones per night will come towards Ukraine, and many, many more innocent people will be killed in a war that started as one man's crazy idea. A war has turned, in three and a half years, into a titanic struggle between East and West, fought more and more with machines, in a dystopian evolution of warfare.
If Trump is not prepared to use his power to end this war, what will the remaining three and a half years of his presidency bring? It is a chilling question, concludes the analysis cited.
Putin Offers Two Options to Kyiv
"Putin will not accept any significant compromise with Ukraine. Putin offers Kyiv two options: to agree with his political demands and become another Belarus - with a puppet regime and widespread Russification, or to be militarily defeated and annexed piece by piece," said Ryhor Nijnikau, a Russia expert at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, to Kyiv Independent.
Putin has also shown that he will not cancel any illegal annexation as part of a peace agreement with Ukraine. "Any compromise regarding the de jure recognition of (occupied) territories is political suicide for any (Ukrainian) leader," said Oleksandr Kraiev, head of the North America program at the Ukrainian think tank Prism, for the Ukrainian publication.
Morally, recognizing any of these territories as Russian would legitimize the Kremlin's aggression and equate to Ukraine's surrender.
But even pragmatically, analysts say Ukraine has little to gain from such recognition. Without solid security guarantees, such as NATO membership, it is unlikely to bring about stable peace and will only encourage further Russian aggression.
"(A territorial understanding) is very unlikely. Ukraine can only accept a painful agreement if the West provides credible security guarantees that will deter any future Russian aggression. The US and Europe cannot offer this. Therefore, Ukraine cannot accept any de facto or de jure concessions, as it makes no sense and is suicidal - it will undermine the war effort and the political stability of the government," said Nijnikau.
Jenny Mathers, lecturer in international politics at Aberystwyth University in the UK, believes that Russia would only accept guarantees "that give Russia a role and/or a veto right."
"But the more important question is whether Ukraine's international allies will allow Russia to determine the nature of the security guarantees they offer Ukraine," she added.
Nijnikau emphasizes that "Russia will not accept any significant security guarantee from the West": "They will oppose any Western military presence in Ukraine or even political integration (of Ukraine) (into the EU) at any cost," he said.
Their ideal version is a multilateral security consortium with a limited mandate, in which Moscow will have a veto right, allowing it to resume its aggression at any time.
Putin Would Meet Zelensky Only Under One Condition
A major reason for the lack of progress towards peace is Trump's reluctance or blatant inability to understand how to deal with Putin, experts say.
He has consistently refused to penalize and sanction Russia enough to press for an agreement to end the war. Also, Trump has constantly oscillated between appeasing the Kremlin and threatening to impose sanctions or tariffs to get Russia to accept an agreement.
However, analysts say actions matter, not rhetoric. Trump has introduced some limited measures aimed at putting pressure on Russia to end the war.
The situation deteriorated even further when Trump once again postponed decisions on sanctions and tariffs targeting Russia and its trading partners, after the meeting with Putin on August 15.
The Kremlin seems to have realized that it has nothing to fear from Trump.
"Trump is fascinated by Putin and admires him, and what Trump imagines is Putin's unlimited power and ability to do whatever he wants without consequences," said Mathers.
"Think about how much effort Zelensky and Western leaders must put in to get Trump to even slightly lean towards supporting Ukraine. But all this work can be undone with a phone call with Putin or, as we have recently seen, a personal meeting."
Trump has achieved the exact opposite of progress in peace talks, Nijnikau shows: "Russia has been further encouraged simply because his approach works. So far, the main outcome of the two summits is that Trump has allowed Putin to pursue a comprehensive peace agreement rather than a ceasefire, rejected any pressure on Moscow, and shown reluctance to escalate in relations with Moscow and Beijing. With such an approach, Moscow is even less inclined to make compromises than before."
Once again, Trump has accepted Putin's tactics of delaying peace negotiations, while continuing to kill Ukrainians and destroy Ukrainian cities.
Nijnikau says that "if Ukraine diplomatically capitulates, Putin will be happy." "If it does not, Russia will continue to mimic peace talks as long as Trump desires," he added.
"However, these diplomatic games with Trump have already evolved in favor of Russia so far. Trump's desire to position himself as a 'mediator' and his self-control in providing Ukraine with the necessary support to maintain the 'peace process' facilitate Russia's advancement on the battlefield. Therefore, as long as he does exactly that, Russia is more than happy to 'negotiate peace' until the end of Trump's presidency."
Trump has claimed that a meeting between Putin and Zelensky will take place soon, but no agreement has been reached on this yet. Analysts say such a meeting is unlikely to happen in the near future.
"Putin wants to avoid giving Zelensky equal status and legitimate leadership," said Mathers. "The only condition under which Putin would be willing to meet Zelensky is the ceremonial signing of an agreement that gives Putin what he wants or enough of what he wants to present it as a victory."
What Is the Solution?
The only way to end the war - temporarily or permanently - is to put devastating pressure on Russia by imposing the harshest sanctions and tariffs and dramatically increasing arms deliveries to Ukraine, say analysts.
Only then might Putin believe he has nothing to gain from continuing the war, say experts. He could then agree to a compromise - such as freezing the front line without humiliating conditions for Ukraine.
Putin might agree to stop the war only "if Russia's progress stops or reverses and if Russia struggles to continue financing the war and loses support from allies," Mathers says.
"Right now, Putin has no incentive to accept a ceasefire or peace agreement," said John Herbst, an expert at the Atlantic Council and former US ambassador to Ukraine, to the Kyiv Independent. "(To accept an agreement), Putin needs to be worried about his ability to wage war. For that, many months of sustained pressure on Russia are needed."
T.D.