After three years of war, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky is under pressure, caught in a bind between the Russian army, which continues to gain ground in the east, and Donald Trump, who urges him to quickly negotiate with Vladimir Putin.
Moreover, he is urged by Donald Trump, who questions his democratic legitimacy, much like Vladimir Putin, to organize elections. And in Ukraine, the scent of a presidential campaign is starting to emerge, as reported by BFMTV.
In a harsh message posted on his social network, the American president described his Ukrainian counterpart as a „dictator without elections,” shocking numerous Western leaders and even those from his own camp.
By this remark, Donald Trump has called into question the democratic legitimacy of the Ukrainian president and used an argument regularly waved by the Kremlin. Parliamentary elections were supposed to take place in October 2023, and presidential elections in March 2024, but the martial law in effect in Ukraine since February 2022 did not allow for the organization of the polls.
### Popularitate erodata de razboi
Furthermore, the American president falsely claimed that his Ukrainian counterpart has only „4% favorable opinions” among his fellow citizens, without citing a source. According to AFP, this figure, transmitted by certain Russian media, comes from an informal „survey” conducted on Telegram by pro-Russian Ukrainian deputy Oleksandr Dubinsky, sanctioned by Washington in 2021 for his alleged ties to „a foreign influence network linked to Russia.”
In reality, **Volodymyr Zelensky has a 57% approval rating in Ukraine**, according to the latest survey conducted in early February 2025 by the International Institute of Sociology in Kiev (KIIS). While 77% of Ukrainians trusted him in December 2023, the president’s popularity dropped to 52% in December 2024 before rebounding by five points in recent weeks.
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In the – still distant – event of a ceasefire and the organization of presidential elections, will Volodymyr Zelensky still participate? The former Ukrainian television star, who stated during the campaign that he only wants a single term, seems to have been weakened.
„The standard effect” that supported him after the Russian invasion seems to have diminished as the war prolongs and claims the lives of more and more Ukrainians. Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned a figure of 45,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed in an interview at the beginning of February, but estimates from the media, such as those from The Wall Street Journal, place the number of Ukrainian deaths at around 80,000.
To compensate for the lack of manpower on the front lines, recruitment policies have been tightened in recent months. Some scenes of forced recruitment have shocked public opinion, especially as recruits are increasingly younger. Last April, the enlistment age was lowered from 27 to 25.
### Concentrarea puterii
While Volodymyr Zelensky’s military and strategic options are being debated, the concentration of power in the hands of a close circle of associates is also criticized in Ukraine.
In 2019, his party „Servant of the People” obtained a large majority in parliament (Rada) – now holding 232 out of the 450 seats. This is an unprecedented political configuration in the former Soviet republic, allowing him to govern without forming a coalition. With the Russian invasion, this concentration of power around the president has become even more pronounced.
„Almost all power is concentrated in the hands of the head of state and the presidential office, which he controls,” noted the Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw in a study published in August 2024 and cited by Le Monde. „Instead of trying to build a ‘government of public salvation’ and share power with opponents, Zelensky is trying instead to centralize all decisions around himself and his cabinet,” said political scientist Hanna Perekhoda, a researcher at the University of Lausanne (Switzerland), to BFMTV.com.
In Parliament, voices of the opposition have risen against a government considered too restrictive. The focus of criticism has been on the control exerted over the foreign travels of deputies, imposed after two deputies from the presidential party were seen vacationing in the Maldives and Thailand during the war.
The extensive reshuffle in September 2024, during which half of the ministers left their posts, also raised concerns among politicians. While the president invoked the need for „new energy,” opposition parties described the reshuffle as brutal and untimely at a time when the army was facing setbacks in the east.
### Un iz de campanie electorală
Was it enough to convince Volodymyr Zelensky? As peace negotiations intensify, the „dormant Ukrainian political process” is waking up, notes the online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda. „Old and new actors are gradually becoming active, seeking new voters, new communication channels, and new teams,” the publication explains in an article picked up by Le Monde.
But the opposition still seems weak. In these early stages of the electoral campaign, **Volodymyr Zelensky’s most vehement opponent is undoubtedly former President Petro Poroshenko (2014-2019)**. His European Solidarity party, the main opposition force in Parliament, has 27 deputies compared to 232 for the presidential party.
Zelensky’s predecessor has remained very active throughout the war, creating his own militia – dubbed the Poroshenko battalion – and financing equipment for the Kiev army from his own funds. However, the former industrialist could be caught up in his judicial past. Since the end of his term and his defeat, the former president has been involved in a series of legal proceedings, including a charge of „high treason.” He is accused in particular of increasing Ukraine’s energy dependence on Russia and buying coal from pro-Russian separatists.
On February 12, the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, which reports directly to the president, imposed sanctions on several figures in the Ukrainian business world, including Petro Poroshenko.
### Fostul comandant al Armatei, popularul Zalunjni, un viitor rival?
While no politician seems to embody a serious opposition capable of uniting the majority of Ukrainians, other popular figures in the country may have national ambitions.
Among them are former world boxing champion and Mayor of Kiev Vitali Klitschko, and, notably, former Supreme Commander of the army Valery Zaluzhny, currently the ambassador to the United Kingdom. According to a survey by the Ukrainian Social Research Center, cited by several media outlets in November last year, he had 27% of the vote intentions, compared to 16% for Volodymyr Zelensky.
Whatever happens, the outcome of the conflict resolution negotiations will be decisive for the campaign. „A peace agreement dictated in Russian terms would inevitably lead to enormous frustration and radicalization of millions of people, favoring extremist forces over moderate and progressive actors,” concludes Hanna Perekhoda.