On June 22, 2025, 7 B-2 stealth bombers entered Iranian airspace and hit three nuclear facilities, causing the failure of Tehran’s secret program to obtain atomic bombs.
The effects of the raid were devastating, despite the controversies that followed the attack.
„The main nuclear installations at Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan were mostly destroyed and have not recorded significant activities since the end of the bombings,” as stated in a report published by the International Institute for Science and Security on November 21, 2025.
Meanwhile, on the ground, Israeli intelligence services carried out an intense and precise attack on military leaders in Iran, causing a massive upheaval in the fundamentalist power system, led by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The origin of today's violent protests, triggered by a population affected by poverty, must be sought in last year's attacks, which humiliated and weakened the dictatorial regime in Tehran.
In recent days, over 22 massive protests have taken place in nine provinces of the country, with 13 occurring in the capital, where tens of thousands of people took to the streets, according to data collected by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard, Khamenei's armed arm, has blocked the internet, making communication difficult, with information about the situation in Iran arriving with delays.
However, it is estimated that over 500 protesters have been killed following the intervention of repressive forces, and hospitals are overwhelmed with injuries from violent street clashes.
"In the last 24 hours, the army leadership announced its support for the government and that it will protect parts of Iran's strategic infrastructure," said a Middle East expert monitoring the situation in Iran, to AlJazeera.
Without a crack in the power structures, it will be difficult for protesters to remove Khamenei from power.
Iran, the most important arms supplier for Putin
But tensions in Iran and pressure on the authoritarian system there are already having international effects.
Thus, we can say that we are facing a new geostrategic defeat for Russia and China, following the collapse of Venezuela.
Vladimir Putin returned to the Kremlin after a two-week absence, but made no statement about the external situation, avoiding to talk about Venezuela and Iran.
The weakening of the political regime in Tehran and its possible collapse represent a nightmare for Vladimir Putin, who would be left without the most important military ally after China.
In January 2025, the two countries signed a strategic partnership, involving joint military exercises and the development of economic exchanges.
Iran continues to be the largest source of drones for Russia. Starting in 2022, Tehran has exported around 5,000 pieces monthly of the famous Shahed drones. Since the end of 2024, complete drones have not been sent, but kits to locations in Russia where they have been assembled. Russia's Geran models are based on technology developed by Iranians.
A potential halt to these exports would mean a serious reduction in Russia's combat capabilities in Ukraine and a possible shortening of the war.
However, Russia also benefits from Iran's financial payment system to conduct commercial operations, circumventing the economic sanctions imposed by the US and the European Union.
China, in difficulty
While Moscow remains silent on the protests against Khamenei, China has announced, through the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, that "it opposes intervention in the internal affairs of other states and rejects the use or threat of force in international relations."
Four years ago, before Putin attacked Ukraine, the Russia, Iran, China trio was seen as a huge threat to Western civilization and democratic governance systems.
The strategic error of the Russian president in launching the invasion of the neighboring country set in motion a series of events that, in four years, reduced Russia's global influence.
It lost control in Syria, in parts of Africa, relations with Europe evaporated, as did those with the US, and now, the power levers it had in Venezuela and Cuba have also disappeared.
The weakening of Iran could mean the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin. But not necessarily due to the cessation of military aid, a handicap that could be overcome by Russia's huge war industry.
The final blow to Putin could come from China, which now finds itself globally isolated, without any strong military ally, under the pressure of an America with a military budget of over $1 trillion and a Europe with one of $535 billion USD.
Although China declares a military budget of $250 billion, its expenditures are at the level of Europe's, nearly $550 billion.
With a weakened Russia due to the war in Ukraine and an unstable Iran following internal tensions and pressure from Israel, China becomes vulnerable globally.
The New Master of the Game
The silence from Moscow and the cautious statements from Beijing indicate a certain perplexity among the leaders of the two countries regarding the succession of events in Venezuela and Iran.
Donald Trump's behavior is chaotic, and his decisions have caused and continue to cause suffering both in the US and Europe.
Nothing is predictable and nothing is stable around him, but one cannot overlook the efficiency with which he destroys the influence of Russia and China globally, generating an unprecedented weakening of the three major dictatorial powers that threatened the Western world.
Until January 2, when US military forces extracted Nicolas Maduro from Venezuela, Vladimir Putin was the master of the game.
If there's a threat, you certainly have the right to react. Every country has the right to do that... Honestly, I believe in niceties. I get along well with many people. I get along well with NATO. Look at NATO. They raised the GDP from 2% to 5%. They didn't pay 2%, then they paid 5%. My relationship with those in NATO is very good... very strong. When I did that, everyone said they've never seen anything like it...
Donald Trump, President of the US, New York Times interview
Any ceasefire proposal was rejected by the Kremlin, and negotiations failed one after another.
The Moscow leader conveyed to the world that he didn't care at all about what Trump said, about the peace proposals put forward by Kiev and Europeans. He tried to project last year's meeting in Alaska as one where he managed to control the US president, refusing to make any compromises regarding the ceasefire in Ukraine.
After the success of the special operation in Venezuela and the onset of protests in Iran, Vladimir Putin fell silent.
Even if he speaks, he will only deepen the image of failure he recorded in Ukraine compared to Trump's success in Venezuela.
Donald Trump's Strange Strategy
It is hard to say whether the US president makes decisions following a well-established plan or many of them are spontaneous, based on impulses and intuition.
From his statements so far, from his behavioral history, from the exaggerations, exoticism, and scandalous way of communication, it timidly emerges that Trump applies a kind of strategy of dissimulation, diverting attention from his important, less visible actions to those that cause astonishment, emotion, and outrage in a global noise.
"I don't need international law. I don't want to hurt people. I don't want to kill people," said Donald Trump in a lengthy interview with the New York Times, offering a rare glimpse into his more intimate thoughts.
If at the end of the day he stops Putin, brings down Khamenei, and keeps Xi Jinping in check, humanity will become a much safer and more pleasant place, able to forgive his exaggeration of self-proclaiming himself the president of Venezuela on social media.