This will be a turning point year. The biggest source of global instability will not be China, Russia, Iran, or any of the approximately 60 conflicts burning on the planet, but the United States.
This conclusion is found in the Eurasia Group’s Top Risks 2026 report.
The world’s most powerful country and the architect of the post-war world order is now actively dismantling this order, led by a president who is more concerned and capable of reshaping America’s international role than any of his modern predecessors, as stated in an opinion article in Tomorrow’s Affairs, signed by Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, and a member of the UN High-Level Advisory Board on Artificial Intelligence Executive Committee.
### What does the „Donroe Doctrine” mean
Last weekend offered a preview of what this will actually mean. After months of increasing pressure – sanctions, a massive naval deployment, and a complete oil blockade – American special forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in Caracas and transported him to New York to face criminal charges.
A dictator removed and brought to justice without American casualties – it was President Donald Trump’s cleanest military victory to date.
Trump has already named his approach to the Western Hemisphere the „Donroe Doctrine”. It is his version of President James Monroe’s 19th-century statement on U.S. supremacy in America.
However, while Monroe warned European powers to stay away from America’s neighborhood, Trump uses military pressure, economic coercion, and personal reckonings to subjugate the region to his will. And it’s just the beginning.
### How do you know you are a target for Trump
Trump’s foreign policy does not unfold along traditional axes, such as allies versus adversaries, democracies versus autocracies, or strategic competition versus cooperation.
According to the expert, to quickly understand how Trump thinks and acts, a simpler calculation is: can you push back hard enough to affect Trump?
If the answer is no and you have something he wants, you are a target. If the answer is yes, you can probably strike a deal.
In the case of Venezuela, Trump wanted to overthrow Maduro, and Maduro could do nothing to stop him. He had no allies willing to act, no army capable of retaliating, and no influence over what mattered to Trump. So he was ousted.
It doesn’t matter that the entire structure of the Venezuelan regime remains intact and that any transition to a stable democratic government will be chaotic, contested, and largely up to Venezuela to manage – well or poorly.
Trump is content for Venezuela to continue to be ruled by the same repressive regime, as long as it agrees to do his bidding and even preferred this arrangement over an opposition-led government.
### The law of the jungle applies
The threat of „or else…” seems to be working so far. Trump has just announced that the „new” authorities in Venezuela will deliver 30-50 million barrels of oil to the U.S. „The revenues will be controlled by me, as president,” he said.
Moreover, success in Venezuela will embolden the White House leader to intensify this approach and continue – whether in Cuba, Colombia, Nicaragua, Mexico, or Greenland.
At the other end of the spectrum is China.
When Trump escalated tariffs last year, the Chinese responded with restrictions on the export of rare earths and critical minerals – essential ingredients for a wide range of consumer and military products in the 21st century.
When U.S. vulnerabilities were exposed, Trump was forced to back down. Now, he is determined to maintain the détente and secure a deal at any cost.
We are not dealing here with a grand strategy, but with the law of the jungle, Bremmer emphasizes.
America unilaterally exerts its power wherever Trump believes it can escape unpunished, regardless of the norms, bureaucratic processes, alliance structures, and multilateral institutions that once legitimized U.S. leadership.
As constraints tighten elsewhere – for example, American voters are frustrated by financial issues ahead of this year’s midterm elections and the U.S. commercial leverage diminishes – Trump is eager to solidify his legacy.
His willingness to take risks in terms of security, where he remains largely unconstrained, will only increase.
The Western Hemisphere is a particularly rich habitat for prey – and one where the United States has leverage that no one can counteract. Trump can achieve easy victories with low chances of rejection and minimal costs.
### China lets its rival make mistakes
However, Trump’s approach is by no means limited to America’s immediate neighborhood. If it wasn’t already clear, the administration’s threats to Greenland show that Europe is also in his sights.
The continent’s three largest economies – the United Kingdom, France, and Germany – all entered the new year with weak and unpopular governments besieged by populists from within.
With Russia at their door, the Trump administration openly supports far-right parties that would further fragment the continent.
If Europeans do not find ways to gain leverage and credibly impose costs that concern Trump, they will soon feel the same pressure he applies throughout the Western Hemisphere.
For most countries, the response to an unpredictable, insecure, and dangerous America is now an urgent priority. Some will fail, others will succeed.
Perhaps it is already too late for Europe to adapt, but China is already in a stronger position, content to let its main adversary undermine itself.
Chinese President Xi Jinping can afford to play the long game. He will remain in power long after Trump’s term ends in 2029.
### The credibility America has lost
The damage to American power itself will persist beyond this administration. Alliances, partnerships, and credibility are not just nice things. They are force multipliers, providing the United States with leverage that brute military and economic power alone cannot sustain.
Trump is burning this legacy, treating it more as a constraint than as an asset. He governs as if American power operates outside of time and as if it can reshape the world through force without lasting consequences.
But the alliances he destroys will not be rebuilt when the next president takes office.
What will happen to America’s lost credibility? It will take a generation to rebuild, if it can be rebuilt.
That’s why 2026 is a turning point year. Not because we know how things will end, but because we are already beginning to see what happens when the country that wrote the rules decides it no longer wants to abide by them, concludes Ian Bremmer.
T.D.