The growth of the American economy and the political survival of President Trump are based on artificial intelligence. The EU must use its influence and stand up to the leader in the White House.
What was inconceivable has happened: the United States is Europe’s adversary. The blatant and profound betrayal emanating from the new national security strategy of the Trump administration should put an end to any further denials and hesitations in European capitals. Cultivating „resistance to Europe’s current trajectory in European nations” is now Washington’s declared policy.
But in this calamity lies a clear solution: Europe will fight or perish. The good news is that Europe has strong cards to play, writes Johnny Ryan, director of Enforce, a unit of the Irish Council for Civil Liberties, in an editorial published in The Guardian.
America's Bet, Europe's Chance
The U.S. bet on artificial intelligence is now so crucial that the pension of every MAGA voter hangs on the precarious survival of the AI bubble.
Investments in artificial intelligence now rival consumer spending as the primary driver of American economic growth, according to the Washington Post. They accounted for nearly all (92%) of the U.S. GDP growth in the first half of this year. If we remove this factor, the U.S. GDP grew by just 0.1%.
Despite Donald Trump's offensive, he is operating on shaky economic ground.
And Trump's political coalition is fragile. In July and again this month, he failed to convince Senate Republicans to pass his bill imposing a moratorium on artificial intelligence, which would have prevented U.S. states from crafting their own AI laws.
The MAGA wing led by Steve Bannon fears that artificial intelligence will mass-replace workers and is dismayed by AI-generated content to which children are exposed on digital platforms. MAGA voters particularly distrust major tech companies. Technology is a perilous subject for Trump.
Ursula's First Trump Card
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, has two cards to play that could burst the artificial intelligence bubble. If she does so, Trump's presidency will be thrown into crisis.
First card: the Dutch company ASML holds a global monopoly on chip lithography machines that use light to sculpt patterns on silicon. These machines are essential for Nvidia, the giant in artificial intelligence chips, which is now the most valuable company in the world.
ASML is one of the most valuable companies in Europe, and European banks and private equity funds also invest in artificial intelligence. Stopping these silicon lithography machines would be challenging for Europe and extremely painful for the Dutch economy. But it would be even more painful for Trump.
The feverish investments of the United States in artificial intelligence and the data centers on which they rely will hit a wall if European controls slow or halt exports to the U.S. - and to Taiwan, where Nvidia produces its most advanced chips.
Through this leverage, Europe has the opportunity to decide how much the U.S. economy expands or contracts.
The Second Trump Card
The second card, much easier for Europe to play: enforcing long-neglected EU data rules against major U.S. tech companies.
Confidential corporate documents made public in U.S. litigation show how vulnerable American companies like Google can be to basic data rules enforcement. Meanwhile, Meta couldn't tell a U.S. court what its internal systems do with our data, who can access it, or for what purpose.
This total freedom to use data allows major tech companies to train their AI models on large masses of data from all users, but it is illegal in Europe, where companies are required to carefully control and be accountable for how they use personal data.
All Brussels needs to do is take drastic action against Ireland, which has long been the Wild West of lax data regulation enforcement, and the repercussions will be felt much further. Exactly, right across the Atlantic.
If the EU has the courage to apply this pressure, American IT companies would need to rebuild their technologies from scratch to handle data correctly. They would also need to inform investors that their AI tools do not have access to Europe's valuable market until they comply. The AI bubble is unlikely to survive this double shock.
How Trump Can Be Politically Paralyzed
MAGA voters did not vote to lose their freedoms and constitutional rights, and an increasingly authoritarian Trump, unable to provide economic stability due to his close ties to a despised tech industry, risks being deeply unpopular in the 2026 midterm elections.
The moment now demands that European leaders paralyze Trump. They have learned from a year of abject intimidation by Trump that timid behavior only encourages him to push further. The reasons for caution are fading away.
The extreme reaction of the MAGA leaders to the relatively minor fine of 120 million euros imposed on X by the European Commission recently shows that such sanctions will not appease them. Trump's "28-point plan" for Ukraine has dispelled any illusion: Europe's concessions will not prompt the White House to resume its military commitment to defending the continent.
With his democracy now explicitly threatened, Europe must join India, Brazil, and China in opposing Trump.
The President of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is an example in this regard. He has been dignified and firm in the face of extraordinary aggression from Trump. In just one month, in September, he declared in an open letter to Trump that the democracy and sovereignty of his country are non-negotiable, countered Trump's imposed tariffs with his own tariffs, and passed a new law requiring digital platforms to protect children in Brazil from online harassment and other harm.
He then attacked Trump in a speech at the UN General Assembly, just before the U.S. president spoke. As a result of Lula's refusal to be intimidated, Trump immediately softened his tone. Lower tariffs are now expected after negotiations between the two leaders.
Ursula Must Hit Trump Where It Hurts
Trump declared at the beginning of December that he considers European leaders weak. He does not believe they will defend the freedoms and hard-won democracy of Europeans against him. So far, the reaction of European leaders proves him right.
But what Trump does not yet understand is that von der Leyen actually holds the U.S. economy and his presidency in her hands. She just needs to have the courage to completely surpass any of his previous behavioral norms. In other words, if she hits Trump where it hurts, Europe will win this battle.
T.D.