A time bomb is ticking in Russia. The police system is facing a shortage of staff due to low salaries, and numerous dissatisfied veterans are returning from the front lines with physical and mental issues. Russian society is heading towards a turning point.
As the war in Ukraine approaches its fourth year, the law enforcement apparatus in Russia, a cornerstone of state control, is experiencing an unprecedented personnel crisis. The decrease in workforce has been caused by low salaries – exacerbated by inflation – and limited opportunities for corruption – prompting qualified officers to turn to better-paid military contracts in the Russo-Ukrainian war, where bonuses and danger pay far exceed civilian police salaries, writes Kyiv Post.
Nationally, one in three police positions is vacant since the beginning of the large-scale invasion in Ukraine in February 2022, putting Russia's internal security under pressure.
This shortage has led to an increase in the crime rate, intensification of violence, and a potential shift in how the Kremlin maintains order domestically. Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev acknowledged the issue in March, revealing that the Ministry of Internal Affairs has a deficit of 172,000 employees - nearly 19% of its total workforce.
The Federal Penitentiary Service is facing an even greater staff shortage, at 23%. The issue has worsened - while in 2020, the deficit ranged between 10 and 15%, today it has more than doubled.
In regions east of the Ural Mountains and in the south, including North Caucasus, police forces have decreased by 50% in the past five years. Some areas report job vacancy rates of up to 90%.
Low Salaries Leave Gaps in the Repression Apparatus
Low salaries are a determining factor. After the 2011 reforms aimed at professionalizing law enforcement, police salaries were increased. However, these gains were quickly eroded by inflation and Russia's stagnant economy.
An ordinary patrol officer currently earns about 38,000 rubles per month - around 380 dollars - less than the salaries of cashiers in Moscow. Traditionally, police officers supplemented their incomes through small bribes, "pinching" drivers and shop owners, but recent state efforts to combat corruption have reduced these opportunities.
As a result, many qualified officers - those trained in handling weapons and crowd control - have left for the military, where salaries and bonuses are significantly higher.
Military contracts offer signing bonuses of up to 200,000 rubles (2,470 dollars) - nearly two years' worth of salary - and increased hazard pay.
Something Unthinkable 10 Years Ago and Increasingly Common Now
With fewer police officers available, response times to incidents have lengthened, and police preventive activities have decreased.
As a result, the level of crime in Russia is increasing, and the nature of crimes is becoming more violent. Crimes involving illegal firearms, estimated at 25,000 in 2020, have surged.
Homicides, assaults, and armed robberies are on the rise, especially in urban areas and remote regions in the south and east. Civilians, facing a lack of protection, are increasingly applying for gun permits, contributing to arming an agitated population.
A recent incident illustrates this tension. Last week, a resident in the Transbaikal region was ordered to evacuate and resisted the enforcement of the measure. When officials arrived, he opened fire, injuring several officers.
Such confrontations were almost inconceivable a decade ago but are becoming increasingly common. Now, even routine law enforcement often requires reinforcements from other services, notes the Ukrainian publication.
To fill the void in the system, the Federal Security Service (FSB) and elements of the military are deployed for crowd control and even property disputes. Neither of these agencies is specialized in daily policing activities.
War Veterans Are Furious
The return of veterans from Ukraine will exacerbate the situation. It is estimated that 500,000 soldiers have returned from the army since 2022, with a larger number expected if the conflict narrows or ends.
Frustration is growing, and reports of domestic violence, public altercations, and criminal activities involving former soldiers are sharply increasing. These men bring not only skills but also weapons, often kept illegally, into communities already lacking supervision.
Russia faced similar issues after the Soviet-Afghan war in the '80s when returning veterans contributed to an increase in organized crime. However, the scale of the current situation is greater: Ukraine has produced far more combatants than Afghanistan ever did.
Soldiers returning home complain of not finding jobs that offer the earnings they received in the army. Many are angry and perceive a lack of respect for their service, which exacerbates their dissatisfaction. In cities like Rostov and Novosibirsk, incidents involving war veterans have been reported in the press.
Furthermore, using weapons purchased on their own, radical nationalist groups formed by veterans - both ethnic Russian and minority - are forming militias to protect their neighborhoods. At some point, these vigilante groups may turn against each other - or against the state.
The Kremlin Is Not Sleeping Peacefully
It is unlikely that these developments are being ignored in the Kremlin, but implementing solutions could be challenging. Putin has shown that he does not hesitate to use force decisively, as he did in handling anti-war protests and the Wagner Group rebellion in 2023, but using force will surely exacerbate instability rather than quell it.
For now, the Kremlin remains focused on the war front. Putin seems to count on a negotiated end to the conflict - one entirely favorable to Moscow, of course. This aspirational victory would allow for personnel reallocation and is expected to boost civilian morale through a sense of victory. These are dreams.
With the war in Ukraine nearing its fourth year and with over a million casualties (according to Ukrainian estimates), it is unlikely that the Russian people will feel anything other than relief that this long, pointless, and costly war will end. Disturbances, mostly subdued, are on the rise.
For now, Putin's internal security apparatus plays the role of a "mole" - stifling one incident while another emerges elsewhere. Prolonged repression will eventually generate hard-to-fight resentments. In this tense environment, a crime problem could become a political crisis.
Economic Pressures Worsen the Crisis
Surveys conducted by independent publications such as the Levada Center show a decline in trust in law enforcement, with many Russians expressing doubts about their personal safety. In rural areas and suburbs, residents declare feeling abandoned: break-ins are not reported because calling the police seems futile.
The internal toll of the war extends beyond police activity. Economic pressures - sanctions, inflation, and labor shortages - exacerbate the crisis.
Understaffed and overcrowded prisons are experiencing increasing revolts and escapes.
Border regions, affected by refugee flows and human trafficking, lack the necessary workforce to enforce controls. In the North Caucasus, where insurgent flare-ups simmer, the reduced police presence raises fears of a new resurgence of militancy.
Currently, Putin's regime maintains tight control through surveillance and selective repression. However, the personnel crisis highlights a broader vulnerability: a state under the pressure of its own ambitions.
A Symptom of a Besieged System
While Ukraine stands firm on the battlefield, the costs of Putin's imperial ambitions spread within the country. Without reforms - higher salaries, incentives to retain officers, or a reduction in personnel in Ukraine - the unraveling of the Russian police will continue.
Things may be calm now, but the question is not whether disturbances will spread but how far and how fast.
A destabilized Russia could alter the dynamics of the war in Ukraine, leading to either a desperate escalation or an internal change.
As the conflict continues, the personnel shortage in the Russian police is not just a bureaucratic issue - it is a symptom of a system besieged by its own choices, concludes the cited publication.
T.D.