Putin has no interest in ending the war if he does not achieve his objectives. The only problem for Russia at the moment is who Trump will blame when this last peace effort fails.
The agreement on Monday at the White House regarding the next step – a bilateral meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky – seemed unanimous. Then came Russia’s response.
"The idea of studying the opportunity to raise the level of representation of the Russian and Ukrainian parties was discussed," Kremlin advisor Yuri Ushakov said, informing reporters about the phone call between the American president and Putin.
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Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov adopted a more conciliatory tone in an interview on Tuesday with Russian state television. "We do not refuse any form of cooperation - neither bilateral nor trilateral," he insisted. But "any contact involving senior officials must be prepared with the utmost care," emphasized the Russian diplomacy chief.
In Kremlin language, this means that the Russians are by no means ready to agree to this. And that should not be a surprise, notes CNN.
It would be a step back for Putin
This is a war that Putin started by unilaterally recognizing certain portions of Ukrainian territory as independent (the self-proclaimed People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk). He argued that Ukraine is "an inalienable part of the history, culture, and spiritual space (of Russia)," and its separation from Russia is a historical mistake.
Therefore, if this meeting takes place, Putin "will have to accept the failure of meeting a president whom he considers a joke from a country that does not exist," notes Orysia Lutsevych, director of the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House.
It would also be a huge change in tone, hard to explain to the Russian people. "They brainwashed the Russians so much on state television, saying that Zelensky is a Nazi, that Ukraine is a puppet state of the West... that Zelensky is illegitimate, why is he suddenly talking to him?" she mentioned.
The Kremlin not only currently questions the legitimacy of the Ukrainian leader, focusing on postponing the elections in Ukraine, illegal under martial law, but in the latest "peace" memorandum, it requests Ukraine to hold elections before signing any final peace treaty.
Putin and other Russian officials rarely mention Zelensky's name, preferring instead the stinging nickname "the regime in Kiev." And let's not forget that Zelensky was the one who traveled to Turkey for the first direct discussions between the two parties in mid-May, while Putin sent a delegation led by a historical textbook author, as stated in the cited analysis.
Kremlin uses the "lever" from the White House
Tatiana Stanovaya, a researcher at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and founder of R.Politik, a platform that provides news and analysis about Russia, argues that although Putin does not see a meeting with Zelensky as vital in a war that for Russia is more of a showdown with the West than with Ukraine, he could still accept the meeting if he believes it will be successful.
"Key demands must be on the table, and Zelensky must be willing to talk about them," she said on Tuesday in an interview with CNN. So far, Zelensky has excluded these requests, which include relinquishing the territories still controlled by Ukraine. But Putin sees Trump as a key instrument, a lever, to change this situation.
"Trump is seen as a facilitator of the Russian vision for resolving the conflict, and for this, the United States should collaborate with Kiev to push the Ukrainians to be more flexible, to be more open to Russia's demands," she explained.
Stanovaya suggested that Russia might try to keep the United States on its side by doing what Ushakov suggested and proposing a new round of discussions in Istanbul, but with a higher-level delegation, which could include Ushakov and Foreign Minister Lavrov. Moscow will not risk an "ambush" by sitting at a meeting with Zelensky only to find that all requests are rejected.
Trump ended his Monday by posting on Truth Social that "he has started preparations for a meeting... between President Putin and President Zelensky." By the time he woke up and connected to the morning show on Fox News on Tuesday morning, he seemed to realize that there was no agreement reached. "I somehow arranged everything with Putin and Zelensky, and, you know, they are the ones who need to resolve it. We are 11,000 kilometers away," he justified.
Putin has no reason to accept a meeting at this time. Although he has made no concessions, he was rewarded with a grand summit in Alaska, Trump's withdrawal of the request to sign a ceasefire before peace talks, and the cancellation of all ultimatums regarding sanctions so far.
After slightly reducing the scale of nocturnal drone attacks on Ukrainian cities until now in August, Russia intensified them again on Monday evening, launching 270 drones and 10 missiles. A sign that if the pressure exerted by Trump on Zelensky has not yet yielded the desired results for Moscow, there is always military force to resort to.
The only problem for Russia at this moment is who Trump will blame when this last peace effort fails.
T.D.