Israel’s military operations against Iran are, indirectly, an important aid also to Ukraine. Severing the Tehran-Moscow diplomatic axis, with echoes reaching Beijing, represents a major blow to Vladimir Putin’s expansionist policy.
„The Iranian people will never forget who stood by us in these difficult moments and who chose to do nothing,” stated Kazem Jalali, Iran’s ambassador to Russia, on June 17, subtly referring to the fact that, despite the military partnership between the two countries, Vladimir Putin chose to do nothing to help Iran.
But it cannot be said that he did not try. The Russian leader acted as he knows best, using hybrid warfare techniques and propaganda tools.
He activated his connections within MAGA, Donald Trump’s political movement, causing major tensions among the supporters of the American president.
Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon heavily criticized Donald Trump's willingness to help Israel.
After a series of warlike posts demanding Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to surrender, threatening that he knows where he hides, the American president showed signs of hesitancy in officially announcing support for Israel due to fear of the reaction of some MAGA militants associated with the Kremlin.
Trump's current position could have unforeseen effects. If he manages to obtain concessions from Iranian leaders for dismantling the nuclear program or if he destroys this program by military force without major reprisals, he could be hailed as a president whose unpredictable approach to foreign policy has borne fruit. Mishandling the situation could draw Washington into a major conflict with dangerous and unpredictable consequences for American citizens.
The Washington Post, USA
Another message heavily promoted by Moscow shortly after Israel launched the attack on Iran was a more subtle one, announcing that this conflict would help Russia conquer Ukraine.
"Israel's attack on Iran is a double good news for the Kremlin. Years of diplomacy on two fronts have allowed Vladimir Putin to position himself as a friend of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as well as the Iranian leadership. This will make Russia an indispensable partner for the USA once the long process of addressing the new political realities in the Middle East after this war begins," stated an article by Owen Matthews in "The Spectator," a conservative publication from the UK.
Russia is not ready to help Iran
"Although Israeli planes have so far carefully avoided hitting Iran's oil export infrastructure, the war inevitably frightened the markets and stimulated the downward trend in crude oil prices - and, along with them, Putin's war funds," as stated in the article from the morning of June 17.
But from Iran's diplomatic reaction, the pressures Putin exerts on Trump not to help Israel, as well as the tendency of oil prices to decline after the initial increase caused by the attack, none of what the British publication announced has been confirmed in reality.
After five days of attacks and Israel taking control of Iranian airspace, destroying a large part of the artillery and decapitating the military leadership in Tehran, Khamenei's partnership with Putin was compromised.
"The escalation of the conflict carries serious risks and potential costs for Moscow. It is a diplomatic failure for Russia that it was unable to prevent a massive Israeli attack on a country with which, five months ago, it signed a global strategic partnership. It is evident that Moscow is not prepared to go beyond political condemnations of Israel and is not willing to provide military assistance to Iran," wrote political analyst Andrei Kortunov in the Russian daily Kommersant, as cited by BBC News.
Putin, more vulnerable at home
After the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's dictatorial regime, supported by the Kremlin, at the beginning of December 2024, and the annihilation of the Iranian army by Israel, the loss of any influence by Vladimir Putin in the Middle East is confirmed, with major political, economic, and military consequences.
"Massive real-time changes are taking place on the international stage that will directly or indirectly affect life in our country," as stated in the editorial published by the Russian daily Moscow Komsomolets, according to BBC News's press review.
The fact that the collapse of Iran is seen as a political catastrophe in Moscow cannot but affect Russia's war with Ukraine.
Although there were talks of preparing an offensive in the northeast of the neighboring country, on the Sumy-Kharkiv axis, it did not materialize, with Ukrainian forces conducting deterrence operations that caused losses to the Kremlin, as shown in the report from June 17 by the Institute for the Study of War.
Moreover, certain political voices in France have spoken more forcefully about the possibility of NATO member states' forces intervening to close Ukrainian airspace, rejecting and destroying Russian rockets, drones, and aviation if they were to penetrate the neighboring country's airspace.
The reaction came after Russia hit several residential blocks in Kyiv with drones, resulting in the death of 18 civilians, including children, and injuring another 151 people.
The annihilation of Iran's military force will have direct and rapid consequences regarding the transfer of drones to Russia, another advantage for Ukraine.
Moreover, a Vladimir Putin without influence in the Middle East will be more vulnerable at home. Russia is moving from one strategic defeat to another, and its main objective, in which it has invested so much, cannot be achieved: conquering Ukraine. Doubt and sabotage movements against Putin are inevitable at certain power levels.
The Need for Europe
However, the greatest effect of Russia's strategic weakening will be that European states will have more room to maneuver in exerting pressure on the Kremlin without fearing the destabilization of the Middle East.
A Russia with fewer allies offers the European Union leverage to act more decisively to protect Ukraine and deter the Kremlin.
It is unclear whether the US will officially enter a war alongside Israel, but it is clear that Trump will militarily support Netanyahu's forces, even for the simple reason that he will want to position himself on the side of the victor.
Thus, the American president will greatly need Europe in the near future to transfer planes, weapons, and military technology, which will revive cooperation within NATO and with the European Union.
If the religious fundamentalist regime in Tehran falls and Iran abandons its repressive policy, the shockwave of change will reach Moscow with consequences not very encouraging for Vladimir Putin's authoritarianism.