The inauguration of Nicușor Dan marks the official beginning of the essential phase of configuring the future power. Even more interesting considering that the president delivered a speech in Parliament, focused not so much on solutions, but on diagnostics.
– Politico: Nicușor Dan faces a nightmare mandate
Mr. Dan took stock of the issues, going as far as reorganizing Romsilva and waste collection, and invited parties to manage them according to his vision, in the name of national interest. A phrase with echoes not necessarily happy in our recent history, but, who knows, maybe once again of utmost relevance.
Personally, I believe that the presidential inauguration speech should have included, if not instead of kindergartens and nurseries, at least alongside them, a glimmer of vision about reunifying a fractured country. The simple fact that the fracture is not violent does not mean it has been healed and will not painfully make itself felt at the first opportunity.
From the start, I would say that Mr. Dan’s approach sends an important signal to the future prime minister, already outlined in the first post-election statements and actions, namely that the president considers a kind of sharing of prerogatives normal, where the decision-making is predominantly at the president’s level, and the execution at the prime minister’s level.
The key to the future governance lies with the PSD, without which a majority is not possible. And it’s not just about parliamentary support for a minority government, but about participating in a broad coalition, which should convey a message of stability especially to the business environment, the one with the money and interests. As wonderful as a minority government with the prime minister at the helm might be, it cannot achieve such a thing.
– Grindeanu: My colleagues and I do not know exactly what the new president Nicușor Dan wants
If we do not return to the old paradigm of national interest, which, of course, trumps any political logic, PSD has every interest in maximizing the advantage of its position sine qua non.
Politically, it would have been advantageous for them to continue what they have already done, namely transitioning to the Opposition, thereby avoiding the consequences of unpopular measures caused precisely by the Social Democratic government. This is especially true as this consequence has always been attributed to them, including by President Nicușor Dan, throughout the electoral campaign.
But this strategy can be successful when entry into government is forbidden or at least obstructed. Which is not the case, PSD is invited, refusal would imply cowardice.
– Nicușor Dan, response to PSD: You cannot change without changing anything!
Furthermore, PSD, especially in the context of the president’s heavy-handed prime minister profile, needs to defend some strongholds without which it undermines its very base, the mayors and county council presidents.
These are the two issues that are not about sophisticated calculations, but about the party’s survival instinct: money for mayors and penal security. The first was included in the conditions set by PSD for any government support, the second is an implicit fibrillation, accentuated by the information/suspicion/legend that Florian Coldea stands behind the new president.
– PSD declares openness to anything. Grindeanu says he does not demand anything, but has red lines
### How can PSD best defend these two vital interests?
Certainly, by demanding those portfolios on which they depend the most: Justice and Development.
Justice not only proposes the heads of the prosecutors’ offices but is also one of the two advisory ministries, therefore crucial in any government. The continuation of investments in infrastructure was invoked as an essential condition, suggesting that they will also demand Transport.
Can they do this without demanding the position of prime minister? Normally, for PSD, it would be politically preferable not to have this position, as it attracts the main consequences of unpopular measures and, at the same time, would further shift this burden onto Nicușor Dan, loaded with the highest expectations of the electorate.
Additionally, there are now many key positions on the table, with greater stability than that of the prime minister: the Constitutional Court judges and the head of the SRI. It might be much more politically profitable for PSD to claim them now.
However, it is difficult for the largest party in government to justify giving up the position of prime minister. First and foremost, in terms of image, which matters for the traumatized party morale.
In the internal power struggle within the party, who would take on renunciation without being accused of betrayal and losing the internal battle? But, on the other hand, how can a premier be proposed by PSD, when this position can also settle the internal power struggle?
A viable solution for PSD, already advanced from sources, would be to request that none of the coalition party leaders be prime minister, which actually means a weak prime minister, exclusively presidential, probably a technocrat who would occupy the seat while the ministers of the parties would do what they know best behind the scenes. A response, in a way, to the role of a super-premier outlined by President Dan.
The paradox of the period is that, in fact, no one (except perhaps UDMR) is in a truly comfortable position, and the power-sharing battle will be very complicated.
President Dan desires, we understand, a detailed governance agreement that leaves as little room for controversy as possible, following the German model. That’s why he proposes such a long term for the formation of the Executive.
It’s a great model, but I can’t remember when a signature in Romania prevented any betrayal, any twist. To govern like the Germans, you need the political class from Germany.