We are in a paradoxical situation. The annulled elections were dominated by the heavy feeling that we have nothing to vote for based on minimal criteria, and the only impetus to go to the polls was the fear of the greater evil. Therefore, for many, the decision of the Constitutional Court was a relief.
In the short term, because the preparation for the elections in May placed us in front of the same generalized inadequacies, just with different faces.
A political accident, because that was actually the resignation of President Iohannis, brought to Cotroceni an interim president perceived by most as a revelation.
We shouldn’t take Ilie Bolojan’s word for it that he will deliver, we shouldn’t just be satisfied with following his professional path and his track record. We see him at work, he already acts as president, and what he shows is far above what we had in the last 10 years and far above the candidates’ offerings.
It might seem like the solution of the moment, and unpublished polls confirm this. Ilie Bolojan could be the only one who attracts the positive vote of those who don’t dream of saviors and messianics with open eyes.
Although public pressure for Mr. Bolojan’s candidacy is increasing, even though his name is causing extremists to go into a frenzy, realizing that by removing Iohannis they have created a big problem, Mr. Bolojan’s candidacy could end up being just a missed opportunity.
Many delude themselves with a solution like Nicușor Dan for president, Ilie Bolojan for prime minister. It is extremely improbable for a prime minister with a party behind him of only 14%, proposed by a president on his own, without parliamentary support, to obtain a majority and dominate a government in which he has a minority force, so he can be sabotaged at any time.
### Mr. Bolojan is now facing a major dilemma
On the one hand, there is the risk that the country will fall into the hands of an isolationist anti-European. Obviously, Mr. Antonescu is not taking off electorally, for various reasons. Part of the PNL electorate prefers Ms. Lasconi or Nicușor Dan, and the PSD electorate massively supports Călin Georgescu and, to a lesser extent, Victor Ponta for now.
It is very likely that Georgescu will be rejected by the Constitutional Court, the reasons in Șoșoacă’s case being more than fulfilled. The hypothesis in which most of his votes will be split between Simion and Ponta, which could lead to a final between the two, a nightmare not only for Romania but also for Europe.
If it comes to that, will Mr. Bolojan not regret not having run?
On the other hand, a candidacy of Mr. Bolojan could cause a political earthquake that could lead to a government crisis by breaking the coalition. Obviously, Mr. Bolojan cannot risk that. Nor can he destroy his brand of seriousness. Without him, candidate or not, he falls into the group of the detestable.
The only way to avoid these two risks is, as I mentioned before, for a pro-European coalition broader than the current governing coalition to propose him as a candidate and for the current candidates from this side to all withdraw.
### The key is with Marcel Ciolacu
And not because the PSD president has great control over the party. On the contrary, he does not, and the party is very divided and traumatized after the elections last fall.
The only thing that maintains internal balance is the fact that the PSD holds the position of prime minister.
What can Ilie Bolojan obtain from Marcel Ciolacu? I don’t think more than a kind of non-combat. That is, the guarantee that replacing the candidate will not break the coalition. Real support cannot be discussed, at least not in the first round, when the Social Democrats will mostly go for Georgescu and/or Ponta.
But if the Government holds, Ilie Bolojan can reach the second round even without real support from the PSD, something Crin Antonescu doesn’t seem to be able to do.
The price of this non-combat can only be one, and it should be clear: Marcel Ciolacu to remain prime minister. It is the only guarantee that matters to the PSD, so as not to ignite over the suspended PNL president’s candidacy.
There are many „ifs,” time is very short, and the stakes are huge. The result is unpredictable for now, but the fact is that in order to do more good, Ilie Bolojan must find a way to navigate through these two pitfalls.