Unfortunately, Romania has become the secret battlefield between Russia and the West. I use the term „West” referring to a broader alliance of intelligence agencies from the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the US, even though at this moment the activity of the CIA is profoundly affected by the Trump administration, a confrontation led with Kremlin agencies.
How did Bucharest end up in such a situation is a long story, which began in December 1989, with the imposition of Iliescu at the country’s helm by the then Soviet elite, followed by an infiltration, reactivation, and rebuilding of intelligence networks coordinated by the Kremlin.
In 1991, after the collapse of the USSR, Romania turned towards the West, but the networks remained, some in „hibernation,” a term used in espionage, while others operated at a minimum level, waiting to be activated at a time deemed opportune by Moscow. And they did not have to wait long.
From that moment on, Romania's politics, economy, and defense entered a schizophrenic zone, torn between a strong tendency coming from society to westernize the country and the shadowy brake put by Russia, which influenced political leaders, opinion makers, journalists, writers, businessmen, intelligence agents, officers, generals, etc.
For someone attentive to recent history's events, this tense, harsh, and long confrontation, in which hundreds of people lost their lives, is visible, starting from the first call of the miners to Bucharest by Ion Iliescu, January 28, 1990, and until today.
Romania, strategically important for Russia as well
Despite this brake in society that encouraged endemic corruption, led to the infiltration of political parties, the promotion of mediocre leaders in decision-making positions at various levels, chronic blockage of the justice system, and stagnation in education and healthcare, Romania integrated into the European Union and became a NATO member, benefiting from its geostrategic position, which became important especially after the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, but also due to social pressure, which aimed for a significant distancing from Russia.
Unfortunately, neither Western partners nor even the most enlightened and well-intentioned political leaders in Romania have managed to eliminate Russia's influence networks in the country.
The start of the war in Ukraine prompted Moscow to rapidly decide to ramp up all its intelligence, propaganda, and political influence resources in the West, and this "activation" was visible in the US, the UK, and the European Union. In some places, shadow confrontations were won, others lost. Some victories were important, others less so, just like in the case of defeats.
But, once again, due to its geostrategic position, Romania, this time, has become important from Russia's perspective.
An analyst in Moscow once said that the first mistake Western commentators make when referring to Russia is that they look at the map from west to east. He pointed out a simple solution to better understand the Kremlin's perspective, which is to look at the world map from east to west, that is, from Russia, and indeed, Europe, the Black Sea, and the Mediterranean, the Atlantic Ocean seem more like obstacles in the Empire's path than geographical and social representations.
Romania has become a major target from the Kremlin's perspective because:
- It supported Ukraine militarily;
- It was a key state on the southern transport corridor for cereals from the neighboring country, a corridor through which weapons and goods from allied states came;
- It supported Moldova's integration into the European Union, politically, economically, and militarily;
- Moldova's stability also represented the western stability of Ukraine, where Russia's bombs had a harder time reaching and where Kiev could develop its defense industry;
- Our country's access to the Black Sea offered Ukraine a strategic port, Constanța, but also the possibility of maneuvers and military operations against the Russian fleet, which was eventually driven out of the area.
When the Kremlin's networks were activated in Romania, their representatives did not start from scratch. There were thousands of websites, influence agents, media campaigns launched even during the pandemic, when Russia's propaganda was also active in creating a sense of insecurity and weakening democratic systems.
Decoding a rare move
The SVR statement, in the context of the conflict in Ukraine, is an unusual one. Russia's foreign intelligence agency rarely communicates publicly and, in general, to disinform and deny, essential duties in the job description.
"European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who played a key role in recognizing the first round of Romania's presidential election results as invalid, has asked the current authorities in Bucharest to ban Georgescu from participating in the second round in May. She warned that if this representative of the anti-system forces continues his election campaign, the European Union will restrict Romania's access to its funds," the SVR statement published by TASS reads.
If we synthesize the information from the above quote, we have the following statements:
- Calin Georgescu is supported by Russian intelligence services;
- His political evolution and influence were halted following a concerted effort by EU member states;
- The United States played no role in stopping Calin Georgescu's candidacy;
- Romania was compelled to block Georgescu due to political pressures.
Now, if we apply the four statements above to the agency's fundamental objectives, those of denying and disinforming, and interpret them, we have:
- Calin Georgescu, although Russia invested heavily in his training and support, is no longer of interest for achieving strategic objectives.
- Although the SVR achieved a series of victories, the actions of Romania's intelligence services, supported by other Western services, prompt us to give up, considering a different strategy, with Trump's return to the White House.
- The ongoing cleaning operations in Romania now jeopardize the entire intelligence network there.
- EU member states are preparing for a consensus regarding financing counter-espionage operations on the continent.
In the moment when an intelligence agency issues a public statement and takes sides with a candidate or influence agent, in this case Calin Georgescu, it means that the respective individual has been "burned," a term used by writer John Le Carre in his books about the secret confrontations during the Cold War, meaning the agent has been exposed and no longer holds any informative value for that service.
SVR, announcement to its own agents: Operation Georgescu has ended
But the SVR statement has another major importance that has been less discussed, and this is why it was assumed by the agency. Otherwise, some of what appeared there could have been easily transmitted by Peskov or Zakharova.
The statement is, first and foremost, a message to its own agents, network node coordinators, funders, and all involved, requesting them to withdraw, to go into "hibernation," because the "Georgescu" operation has ended.
For example, in this regard, Cozmin Gușă's position is interesting, a pro-Russian influencer, who publicly announced: "Calin Georgescu, end of the line. The system in Securistan, which created him, has now chewed him up, his reactions and actions were inappropriate."
Secondly, from the respective statement, it can be understood that the operation's conclusion is also related to the change in the US administration, and some of Russia's objectives are hoped to be achieved through other means, whatever that may entail.
In such a shadow war, it is difficult to determine at the moment who has won or lost, but it can be observed that Romania has been significantly weakened.
There are concrete signs that Russia's intelligence services have penetrated the Ministry of Defense, through the Army's General Directorate of Intelligence.
Horațiu Potra was involved in recruiting active military personnel to fight abroad, organizing the transportation of weapons, explosives, and money. Additionally, a DGIA agent was recruited by Russia and then associated with Călin Georgescu, while a high-ranking general involved in approving arms procurement contracts is being investigated and accused of corruption.
"Normally, we have a structure that deals with security and internal protection, counterintelligence. They should know," stated retired General Ștefan Dănilă in an interview with News.ro, referring to issues with recruiting soldiers for mercenary operations.
A View from Dubai
Furthermore, the investigations, detentions, and raids carried out by prosecutors in recent months, including publicly disclosed information, indicate that the authorities in Romania have compromised at least part of the network built by Russia, revealing the names of involved spies, as well as how the network is financed.
The contact between Potra and a Russian agent in Dubai is exemplary in this sense. The scene particularly shows that the Romanian side managed not only to carry out an undercover operation in an area considered safe by the Kremlin but also to compromise a Moscow liaison agent, likely quite valuable and trustworthy as he distributed large sums of money.
Based on the signal given by the Kremlin, Operation "Georgescu" has ended, with him set to exit the stage as quickly as he appeared due to the lack of resources and illegal promotion operations.
Most likely, he will leave the country very soon, a common ending for the actions of an influencer agent, choosing to avoid a trial where new revelations could emerge in the public space and the risk of a prison sentence.
Regarding the extent of Romania's losses in the unprecedented attack carried out by Russia, it is difficult to quantify them at this point, but the most important question that the authorities need to answer is how far they are willing to go with the cleanup.