Center-right parties seem unable to propel a strong opposing candidate, leaving the stage open for a final between Ciolacu and Simion. As the campaign progresses, Romania faces the risk of choosing between two options with negative implications for the country’s future.
Marcel Ciolacu is self-assured. He carries a pot of steaming polenta to a farm in Transylvania, being filmed while having lunch with people from the community and members of his campaign team.
The image he projects is that of a simple man, directly and sincerely connected to voters, unafraid to mingle with the crowd and answer questions.
„Mr. Prime Minister, what program do you have to bring our children back home? What can you do for our youth? I appreciate and congratulate you for the simple, Romanian attitude you have,” wrote one of his supporters on Marcel Ciolacu’s campaign video posted on TikTok. Of course, she received no response. The campaign videos posted on social media are for likes, not for dialogue.
Marcel Ciolacu is relaxed, and his advisers have told him and shown him figures that he is almost certain to be in the second round of the presidential elections.
Simion marches towards the second round
After Donald Trump managed to convince Americans to give him a second term as President of the United States, the situation in Europe, especially in the eastern part of the continent, suddenly became complicated, and Ukraine's interests seem to be sacrificed for a rapid ceasefire.
The American elections have changed the political dynamics in Romania as well, and George Simion is favored to enter the second round, according to several opinion polls.
A portion of Mrs. Șoșoacă's electorate has shifted towards Mr. Simion as he is the only representative of an anti-system group of voters
Radu Magdin, political consultant, explaining George Simion's rise
The only candidates who can block the AUR leader are Elena Lasconi from USR or Nicolae Ciucă from PNL. Unfortunately, these two representatives of the center-right parties are splitting their votes, favoring a Ciolacu - Simion final.
The question many political commentators are asking is whether one of the two has the ability to eliminate the AUR president from the race?
The Mayors' Party and Ciucă's Chances
"What we can say is that a portion of Mrs. Șoșoacă's electorate has shifted towards Mr. Simion as he is the only representative of an anti-system group of voters," stated Radu Magdin, a political consultant, in a discussion with Spotmedia.ro.
"Another part of this electorate may remain undecided or turn towards Lasconi or Geoană, in another anti-system direction, considering that Mrs. Șoșoacă's supporters view the PSD-PNL alliance as part of the system, as part of the governing coalition. From this perspective, George Simion benefits from a 2-3-4% boost from Mrs. Șoșoacă's electorate. Additionally, there is a mobilization of PNL as the mayors' party," noted Radu Magdin.
From the recent developments in the political scene, there is a decrease in support for Mircea Geoană, and in the next two weeks, the fight for the second spot in the presidential final will be between Simion, Lasconi, and Nicolae Ciucă.
If PNL manages to mobilize, Ciucă would have a chance to enter the second round based on PNL's voting discipline
Radu Magdin, political consultant, commenting on Nicolae Ciucă's chances of qualifying for the final
The latter has a major issue as he has not yet managed to increase his popularity, having a support of 10 percent. In the next 14 days, with the party's help, he should double his rate to have a chance to face Marcel Ciolacu.
Almost Impossible Mission
"Let's not forget that historically, the PDL defined itself as the mayors' party, and the PDL-PNL association managed to maintain party discipline," stated political consultant Radu Magdin, for Spotmedia.ro.
"Currently, PSD remains the largest political formation in the country, with strong discipline among mayors and county council presidents. However, PNL also has its own voting discipline. Although they are in government and have given the impression of being less organized than PSD, PNL has regrouped and obtained good scores in local elections. If PNL manages to mobilize, Ciucă would have a chance to enter the second round based on PNL's voting discipline," the expert mentioned above believes.
In a survey conducted by USR, Elena Lasconi has a 7 percentage point lead over Nicolae Ciucă, also trailing George Simion by 4.5 points, who is in second place with 21.2%.
Ionuț Moșteanu, leader of the USR deputies, urges PNL and Nicolae Ciucă to immediately stop promoting false clips against Elena Lasconi
USR Statement
If the survey is accurate, the main center-right party candidates have an almost impossible mission, especially as Lasconi and Ciucă are also competing against each other.
Political Cannibalization, Voter Disorientation
"Ionuț Moșteanu, leader of the USR deputies, urges PNL and Nicolae Ciucă to immediately stop promoting false clips against Elena Lasconi," as stated in an official USR statement.
"Recently, several PNL representatives, including Tănase Stamule, distributed a falsified clip with the aim of denigrating Elena Lasconi. The clip, created by taking passages out of context, was promoted with over 8,000 lei from a fake page to reach as many Romanians as possible," claim USR representatives.
The phenomenon of political message cannibalization has caused a state of voter disorientation in urban areas and the middle class. The effects will lead to a division of votes between the two parties PNL and USR and a demobilization among voters in this area, favoring PSD and AUR.
With two weeks left before the elections, according to survey data and various political sources, neither Elena Lasconi nor Nicolae Ciucă will make it to the second round of the elections.
Some campaign strategists hope that Mircea Geoană's exit from the forefront will lead to an increase in support for the USR and PNL leaders, so that one of them, the highest ranked, will have a chance to dislodge George Simion.
Simion Can Defeat Marcel Ciolacu Too
"We can see that AUR is trying to attract young voters, using social media intensively. The youth are more attracted to the online environment," notes Radu Magdin, political consultant.
"On the other hand, PNL is not as active on TikTok. In recent years, AUR and Șoșoacă have had good scores online. It is uncertain how much of this audience will translate into actual votes. With these elements of uncertainty, it is difficult to indicate that Nicolae Ciucă will surpass Simion," Radu Magdin added.
He also argues that the fight for the second spot in the presidential final will be between the PNL president and the AUR president.
"Elena Lasconi had a promising start. She is a very good communicator but seems less prepared for public statements, which could disadvantage her. In Geoană's case, although he started well, the campaign attacks left a negative impression, and he failed to rebuild his image," the quoted expert further stated for Spotmedia.ro.
Romania is in danger of quickly becoming a vulnerable democracy, especially if George Simion, the leader of the extremist AUR party, finds a way to reach the Cotroceni Palace.
In the event that he reaches the final alongside Marcel Ciolacu, amidst a demobilization of USR and PNL voters, as well as a spirit of rebellion among younger generations who have not experienced the effects of totalitarianism, Simion can defeat the PSD candidate.