Here where I am now, in Ukraine, they have been counting the occasions when Russian drones and missiles have violated not only the airspace of Moldova but also that of Romania or Poland, and each time there has been a very weak response, if any – this is part of the testing attempts that Mr. Putin is making to find weak and very weak points.
NATO is already weaker, says Michael Bociurkiw, international affairs expert, Atlantic Council, in an interview he gave to spotmedia.ro from Odesa, about the conclusions of the US - Russia negotiations, over the head of Ukraine and without Europe at the table.
The biggest fear here, in Ukraine, is that Donald Trump will accept many Russian concessions just to tick off a victory. But Ukrainians will fight to the end because they know that, at the end of the day, even this way of life is much, much better than life under Russian occupation. They describe it to me as hell on earth, he says.
Main ideas from the interview:
- It is a big win for Russia; they have turned this into a major PR victory at home, in Russian newspapers. They see this, I believe, as another step in the rehabilitation of Russia's image and Putin's image.
- Donald Trump, he is very transactional. He has had no real success in foreign policy matters on his desk. He has failed to deliver results in North Korea or Afghanistan. He has upset major allies in the Middle East, including Jordan and Egypt. So, he is looking for a quick victory. And the biggest fear here, in Ukraine, is that he will accept many Russian concessions just to tick off a victory.
- About the so-called deal that Mr. Trump presented to the Ukrainians, asking them to give up around half a trillion dollars in mineral resources and infrastructure, permanently - practically, it is a scenario of "pay now and feed your children later."
- Annulled elections in Romania: It seems that indeed Russia was behind this. This is part of the games that Russia plays across Europe and in other parts of the world, manipulating election results. In Romania, I think it was something very different; it was very well orchestrated.
- The Kremlin would want nothing more than to have a good friend in Bucharest.
- NATO has already become weaker. Here where I am now, in Ukraine, they have been counting the occasions when Russian drones and missiles have violated not only the airspace of Moldova but also that of Romania or Poland. And each time there has been a very weak response, if any.
- Ukrainians will fight to the end because they know that, at the end of the day, even this way of life is much, much better than life under Russian occupation. They describe it to me as hell on earth.
The first peace negotiation between the United States and Russia or between, I don't know, better said, Trump's team and Putin's team have just begun. But without Ukraine and without Europe at the table, how do you see this? What's your take on this?
Well, on the one hand, talks are better than no talks. And I did notice that there were different kind of interpretations of the talks from the Russian side and the U.S. side. The Russian side seemed very pleased. I think they already have started to make progress on their long list of concessions. And that's starting with the lifting of restrictions on diplomatic missions in Russia, missions in the United States. Of course, the U.S. will also be having restrictions lifted in Russia, but it's a big win for Russia, of course. And of course, they've been making a big PR win out of it back home in the Russian newspapers. They see this, I think, as another step into the rehabilitation of Russia's image and Mr. Putin's image. Another step in their return to the international stage after three years of a very, very deadly war, which we have to remind everyone was started by them.
This was an unprovoked illegal land grab. And it's shocking at the speed of how things are happening. Now, of course, Ukraine was sidelined. They weren't at the table. The Americans later said that everyone is going to be involved, that there's a lot of shuttle diplomacy. But the bottom line for me is that what we know of Mr. Trump, he's very transactional. He's had no real wins on the foreign affairs files on his desk. He has failed to deliver on North Korea, Afghanistan. He has majorly upset allies in the Mideast, including Jordan and Egypt. So he's looking for a quick win. And the big fear here in Ukraine is that he will agree to many Russian concessions in order to chalk up a win.
But what would such a peace mean for Ukraine and for the region? Would it be, I don't know, a lasting peace?
Well, the Americans were insisting that there can be no peace deal unless it's an enduring one. But how do you achieve that? And how do you give security guarantees? And who would guarantee that security? For Ukraine, they're deservedly worried about what's about to happen. We already saw a hint in reports of the so-called deal that Mr. Trump presented the Ukrainians, which requires them to sign over something like half a trillion dollars of mineral wealth, of infrastructure in perpetuity. And it's basically pay up now and feed your children later type of thing. And they're also worried about because the Americans did mention territorial concessions. So it's expected that Mr. Putin will press for holding on to Donetsk, Luhansk and possibly getting all of Zaporizhia and Kherson. And it looks like Crimea has gone for good and it looks like they will hang on to the land bridge connecting the Russian mainland to Crimea.
Romania seems to be caught in the middle. Vice President Judi Vens mentioned it in Munich. Elon Musk is tweeting one post after another about Romania, about the Soros network in Romania, although we don't even know what that means. Is there a particular interest in Romania? Do these, I don't know, two even know where is it on the map? Or is this about something else, an ideological battle linked to the upcoming German elections, maybe?
Maybe. Well, it's difficult for me to comment on that, but what is, of course, of interest to all of us is the way a relatively unknown candidate has really accelerated his race for the first position, apparently using TikTok and other social media, but especially TikTok. And it does appear that Russia was behind this. And this is part of Russia's nefarious games across Europe and other parts of the world where it's manipulating the outcomes of elections. Having said that, I mean, in other countries as well, we do see a kind of shift to right wing parties. There is a lot of anxiety, a lot of concern amongst voters for things like the cost of living, housing, immigration, especially access to medical services. But in Romania, I think it's something very different that this was something that was kind of engineered.
And it's a good thing that the courts intervened and ordered a rerun of the election. So it will be watched very, very carefully. I know there's lots of anxiety in Moldova about the outcome of the election as well. But the Kremlin would love nothing more than to have a good friend in Bucharest and other nearby capitals as part of the expansion of their empire and influence.
How could the United States or Trump administration benefit from a weakened Europe? Follow, I don't know, the principle, you know, divide and conquer.
I don't know how they could benefit because I thought a strong Europe would be of benefit to them, not a weak one. There are enormous US investments in this region. There was a security umbrella that has been in place since the end of World War II. And the main point I want to make on this is that we are in a very interconnected and borderless world. if there is one weak link in the chain, it will rattle that chain and infect Americans. And if, for example, America stops subsidizing healthcare in certain parts of the world, if it stops paying for vaccines, well, viruses could easily travel to the US mainland, if they're not stopped. at source. Similarly, if, for example, not more is done to protect the port of Odessa, grain exports, barley exports, sunflower exports will stop.
It will have a very, very grave and immediate effect in places like Egypt. It could raise the cost of foodstuffs and that could hit the American consumer as well. Again, I think it's in their interest, but this is a very inward working administration. They're more concerned about prosperity at home, which is fine. But again, I remind them that we are such an interconnected world that a weak region could really affect them.
What about a weak NATO or a weaker NATO?
The other thing about weakness and speaking to dictators like Mr. Putin is that it sends a bad signal everywhere. It sends a bad signal to other dictators that they can act with abandon and do as they please, that there's no enforcer of the rules-based international order, which we've been operating on for decades and decades. But a weak NATO? Well, look, I think NATO has been becoming more weak. Here in Ukraine, we look at the number of times Russian drones and missiles have intercepted airspace, not only in Moldova, but I believe also in Romania, Poland, and there was a very weak response, if anything. But I think this is part of Mr. Putin testing for softness and for weakness. But, you know, whether NATO will exist for a long time, we don't know. Maybe it will take another form.
But it does look like the Americans are wanting to withdraw and that the Europeans, Canada, will have to pick up the slack. But this will not happen overnight because they're so far behind in funding their militaries. They have to convert a lot of their industries to military footing, which they should have done a long time ago. They've ignored all of the warning signs. They've become very used to living off of the generosity of the United States. That's something we can't argue with when the Americans say it. And even in Canada, where I'm from, you know, we should have been paying much more attention to Northern security. We haven't because we're so dependent on the United States. And I think a big problem here is the leaders in NATO have done a very poor job to explain to their voters why it's important to spend militarily for military.
It's my last question. You already know this. What is the mood there? Do Ukrainians feel betrayed in any way?
I just finished writing an opinion piece for a Canadian newspaper and I said, in my three years, I've never sensed a more dark mood. And it's not only because of the fatigue, the daily barrage of missiles and rockets, the death and destruction, it's that everyone sees darkness ahead. And Ukrainians are, as I'm sure people in Romania are very optimistic people at the core. But when you can't see light ahead, it's very, very difficult. And here in Odessa, as in many parts of Ukraine many, many people have left. But what I'm beginning to see right now is quite worrisome. It's the movers and shakers, the influencers, the people who really help make this place run that are now thinking of leaving. And that's very worrisome because millions and millions of Ukrainians have left and gone even to places like Romania.
And, in a way, Putin's evil work has been done where he's really set back Ukrainian nationhood. It's very, very sad to watch up close. But having said all that, Ukrainians will fight to the end because they know at the end of the day that this type of life is far, far better than life under Russian occupation. They describe it to me as hell on earth. So, yeah.
Thank you very much for accepting this interview.