The shock caused by the joint proposal of PSD- PNL – UDMR for the presidency of Romania in the person of Crin Antonescu, along with the accompanying lamentations, stems, I fear, from unrealistic expectations and premises regarding the political configuration resulting from the December 1 vote.
I am not a fan of such broad and theoretically impossible ideologically common candidacies, but the recent popular vote has placed us in a strange situation.
If until December 1 the coalition of stability was a political choice, but not the only arithmetically possible one, after December 1 what we have in power has become the only non-extremist solution. That is, a conglomerate that includes the parties that, under normal circumstances, would have been desirable to be divided between power and opposition. But given the current conditions, without their coming together, there is no majority.
This undesirable but inevitable coalition in the current context is heading towards the presidential elections. If they had run with separate candidates, the madness of last autumn would have been repeated, leading to the incalculable destabilization of Romania. So a common candidacy has also become necessary in the current context.
What did the common candidacy entail? A desirable candidate not so much for the party leaders, but for their electorates. If November 24 showed anything, it is that party mobilization cannot be relied upon as it was in past decades. If people do not want to choose someone, even if the mayor stands on their head, they will not vote.
The Liberals have shown that they can always move towards the USR area, now with the addition of Nicușor Dan's offer, while dissatisfied Social Democrats are moving towards the extremist offer, as was set to happen massively on December 8, regardless of what some in their bubble imagine was voted in urban and rural Romania.
Was it realistic to expect Nicușor Dan to be the common candidate? Extremely unlikely. The PSD electorate had nothing in common with him, and perhaps even some of the Liberals with less inclination towards the nonconformist style.
Is Crin Antonescu a successful option?
Hard to say. For now, it's a risky bet with some premises.
1. Crin Antonescu's name is fundamentally linked to the USL and the suspension of the president in 2012. For a part of the electorate, including myself, these were extremely toxic issues for Romania, a battle between criminals or supporters of criminals who tried to demolish what Traian Băsescu had done well in order to steal freely.
But let's not forget that the USL won the 2012 elections after the suspension of President Băsescu, with an overwhelming majority. Let's not forget that the impeachment referendum of President Băsescu failed due to a quorum issue, by a narrow margin.
So a large part of the electorate and probably the majority of the PSD and PNL members view those moments as nostalgic of a period of glory. Whether they are or not in the majority remains to be seen very soon. Additionally, there are quite a few young voters for whom Traian Băsescu is just a former Securitate informant whose wars do not evoke any sympathy.
2. Crin Antonescu is an old politician of the system, not a young hope. But in the traditional electorates of the old parties, there is also a nostalgia for old leaders due to the continuous degradation of leadership and the caricaturing of democratic life. Anti-system can only mean anti-current system with its ridiculous leaders.
Are the traditional parties detested, or are only their current representatives and their way of manifesting detested, this will be a key question.
From this perspective, let's not forget that Mr. Antonescu launched severe criticism against the old leadership of the PNL and its presidential candidate since last autumn. At the same time, Mr. Antonescu is perceived as an opponent of Klaus Iohannis, whom he had brought to the forefront of the PNL and who then betrayed him.
3. After a 10-year hiatus from politics during which, as we have seen, society has changed immensely, political discourse and competition have moved to screens and social networks, the speed has increased exponentially, does Mr. Antonescu have the necessary connection?
4. I don't think the harsh words against Victor Ponta and Mircea Geoană over a decade ago will weigh heavily on the PSD, considering that they are not necessarily the most popular figures in the party.
However, in the second round, if he gets there, he will need the votes of some of those for whom in 2012 the USL, with him at the helm, attempted an anti-European coup. Many are already announcing that they would prefer to vote for an extremist.
But, ultimately, we must understand that this is the electoral offer of some parties, targeted at their electorates, their bet. Dissatisfied individuals can seek alternative solutions to vote for. And the majority will decide.
What is crucial is for the rules of the game to be precise and fully respected by all. It's called democracy.