Romania is heading towards a presidential final between Ciolacu and Simion, if there is no major change in strategy by the candidates of the right-wing political parties.
Elena Lasconi, from USR, is currently in 3rd place, with a difference ranging between one and five percentage points behind the AUR leader, after consulting several opinion polls by Spotmedia.ro journalist, including both public polls and those conducted by party campaign teams.
This is the current situation, one week before the election day. Things can change until the last moment.
"There are 15% undecided voters seven days before the elections. A high percentage that has been increasing in the last three weeks, increasing the level of uncertainty and the possibility of surprises," stated Remus Ștefureac, the director of INSCOP.
"Based on the data we have seen in the last four days of collection, the level of uncertainty regarding the results of the first round of the presidential elections is increasing," the expert added.
The last three important opinion polls:
Mobilizing mayors, Ciucă's argument
Such a reference opens up many possibilities, but there is also a certainty: Elena Lasconi could surpass George Simion with a little support from PNL.
The question that arises is whether the Liberals, at this moment, have crystallized the idea that Nicolae Ciucă is out of the game or not.
Those around the general continue to argue that he, with the help of the party, through an exemplary mobilization of the party's activists, has a path to the presidential final.
"I received the latest opinion poll the moment I landed, an hour ago, at Cluj airport (Sunday, November 17 - ed.). Never before, a week before the first round of the presidential elections, have there been over 25% of undecided Romanians. There are 25% of undecided Romanians, those people who will make the difference in a week," stated Rareș Bogdan, PNL vice president, a supporter of the idea that Nicolae Ciucă still has a chance to enter the presidential final.
"If we, the Liberals, mobilize, if you, the Liberal mayors who brought three million votes six months ago for your winning mandates, will bring us between 1.7 and 2 million votes, the elections will be a win for us," added the Liberal leader.
Bolojan calls for a common candidate
On the same Sunday, Ilie Bolojan (PNL), the president of Bihor County Council, made an appeal to Elena Lasconi, Mircea Geoană, and Nicolae Ciucă to find a formula whereby only one of them remains in the race, so that the center-right parties have a representative in the presidential final.
"As a Romanian, I make a public appeal to three important candidates - Mr. President Nicolae Ciucă, Mr. Mircea Geoană, and Mrs. Elena Lasconi - to find a solution at the 11th hour, not to fragment the votes for the modernization of Romania. Please consider that those of us who do not think about history risk repeating mistakes, the year 2000 being quite close. After the elections, it won't matter who was in third, fourth, or fifth place," stated Ilie Bolojan in Cluj at the PNL regional meeting.
The position expressed by the Liberal leader places him in the camp of skeptics in the party, those who do not believe that Nicolae Ciucă will have the necessary support to reach the presidential final.
According to several political sources, intense discussions are taking place these days between the representatives of the three candidates named by Ilie Bolojan.
A single negotiated withdrawal needed to relaunch the electoral race
There are many unknowns and obstacles in finding a solution, but for the center-right electorate, which represents almost 50% of the entire political spectrum, even a last-minute solution can be enough to block George Simion's path to Cotroceni Palace.
The rise of the AUR leader to the presidential final would be a problem for Romania, especially in the context of the war in Ukraine, a sign of vulnerability in front of NATO partners.
The ascent of an extremist politician, who has promoted the Kremlin's agenda in Romania in the last three years, would mean a loss of the prestige that our country currently enjoys among allies, a loss that would also come with a series of economic effects, such as blocking important military and strategic investments.
Nicolae Ciucă, the PNL president, does not exceed 11% in any real data opinion poll, being nearly 10 percentage points behind George Simion, according to several studies.
Furthermore, Mircea Geoană is on a downward trend, disadvantaged by the lack of support from a political party with strong territorial structures.
A withdrawal from the race following negotiations with USR and PNL, in exchange for support in the parliamentary elections for the Party Romania in Action, could relaunch the electoral race with chances for Elena Lasconi, USR, or Nicolae Ciucă, PNL, if there is an exemplary mobilization of the Liberals.
Lasconi criticizes the secret services
In a post made on Monday, Elena Lasconi criticizes the Romanian secret services, accusing them of interfering in electoral campaigns.
It is a subject that worries the public opinion, but about which the leaders of major political parties have not spoken at all until now.
"The secret services have become a state within a state! - is the reply you have often heard in recent years from my colleagues on the Parliament podium or in TV debates. You have heard this from me too. It's a truth. If you thought it was an exaggeration, if you didn't understand its purpose, maybe the recent <inventory> of the ten years of Iohannis' mandate has clarified things a bit," stated Elena Lasconi, referring to the Recorder documentary "The Iohannis Decade".
It is a bold decision by a presidential candidate to criticize the SRI a week before the elections, but such a political position shows that the entry into the presidential final is still in play, and Lasconi is trying to dislodge George Simion.
On the other hand, possible agreements between PSD and PNL should not be neglected, both parties having been in power in the last three years.
Ciolacu, amidst the Nordis scandal
The Social Democrats, in exchange for the position of Prime Minister for Marcel Ciolacu, could give a number of votes in favor of Nicolae Ciucă to have a presidential final between the two, with a real possibility of extending the current government.
Such a strategy has been widely discussed lately, being the best way to convey to both the domestic public opinion and foreign partners that Romania remains a stable country in the context of the war in Ukraine.
The issue is that Marcel Ciolacu is 5 percentage points below the party's quota - PSD, around 30%, and a vote shift could push him out of the final, especially since in recent weeks there have been a series of revelations about "the overnight enrichment of his nephew", "close ties with Nordis owners", as well as a secret relationship with Sorina Docuz, a celebrity in the social circles of Bucharest.
In conclusion, a week before the elections, Ciolacu and Simion are the main favorites to reach the presidential final. In third place is Elena Lasconi, who would need support from Geoană or Ciucă to take the leader of AUR out of the game, support that has not materialized up to this point.