The Ukrainian Armed Forces have caused panic and significant disruptions among Russian forces with their recent incursion into Kursk.
This attack not only shifts the theater of war onto Russian territory but also brings the conflict closer to the heart of the country.
This has triggered alarms in Moscow, the imposition of "anti-terrorist" measures, as well as the evacuation of residents from Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk.
The Russians feel "invaded" and now directly experience the impact of the war on their own territory, an unpleasant experience they will have to get used to, considering the evolution of the conflict. Especially since, according to the latest information provided by the Ukrainians, they already control approximately 1000 square kilometers of Russian territory.
What Do the Ukrainian Armed Forces Aim to Achieve?
Ukrainian incursions seem to be part of a broader strategy aimed at destabilizing the Russian front, with the purpose of exerting psychological and military pressure on Moscow.
The recent advance in the Belgorod region, following the penetration into Kursk, suggests an expansion of operations and a possible intention to create a wider front on Russian territory.
Speculations about the ultimate objectives of these incursions range from creating a buffer zone to protect the Sumy region from bombardments to capturing strategic gas facilities.
However, the slow nature of the Ukrainian advance suggests a calculated approach. It seems to focus more on disrupting communication lines and weakening Russian forces rather than swiftly conquering territory.
The Ukrainian strategy appears to concentrate on creating a "mirror" situation to what Russia attempted in Kharkiv, using a combination of ground incursions supported by artillery and drones to keep the enemy under constant pressure.
This is a war of attrition meant to demoralize Russian troops and fragment their ability to organize effective defense. The slow but steady advance of the Ukrainians does not necessarily indicate a lack of resources or determination but rather a strategy to test and explore vulnerabilities in Russian defense without risking a rapid and costly counteroffensive.
What Comes Next?
These incursions have significant implications on multiple levels.
Internally, they pose a direct challenge to Russia's national security, which could escalate political pressure on the Kremlin, demanding a more aggressive response.
As a result, Russia has declared an anti-terror regime in the regions of Bryansk, Belgorod, and Kursk and swiftly mobilized troops to counter the incursion.
On the other hand, one of Ukraine's most well-prepared units, the 80th Air Assault Brigade, is actively involved in attacks on Russian territory.
The Ukrainian offensive is estimated to involve at least three brigades, each comprising around 2,000 soldiers.
On the international front, the Ukrainian attack in the Kursk region would have benefited from support from Western allies to exert pressure on Vladimir Putin to be more flexible in future peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Another significant aspect is that the town of Sudja, which hosts a crucial station for measuring the volume of gas delivered to Europe, has reportedly come under the control of Ukrainian forces.
Faced with the Ukrainian advance, Russia has attempted to rapidly mobilize troops near Sudja to halt the incursion. Although Russian officials claim to have stopped the Ukrainian offensive, the actual situation on the front suggests a different scenario.
The Potential of the Ukrainian Incursion
As the situation evolves, it becomes increasingly clear that the events in Kursk are not just a raid but a genuine invasion.
Other estimates by war correspondents suggest that the invasion area could be occupied by around 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers, while the Russian Northern Forces group "Sever," located near the border, previously numbered approximately 48,000 soldiers, although this number has decreased.
Although Ukraine invests considerable resources in this offensive, success is not guaranteed. However, the Ukrainian strategy of drawing a large number of Russian troops into Kursk is starting to yield results. The Russians are beginning to realize that the true Ukrainian threat could emerge anytime and anywhere on the front.
General Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, has been heavily criticized for providing inaccurate information regarding the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk. It appears that Russian President Vladimir Putin was misinformed about the possible extent of the attack on their own territory, allowing the Ukrainians to achieve success.
The border line was not considered a priority by the Russians, who were focused on other fronts, such as Kharkiv.
The battles around the town of Sudja are crucial in the context of peace negotiations or the possibility of a ceasefire.
Ukraine is strengthening its position ahead of the US presidential elections, fearing that American support could wane if Donald Trump, who promised to end the war, wins.
Both Russia and Ukraine are determined to bolster their positions before potential peace negotiations. Ukraine aims to demonstrate its capability to conduct significant military operations and exert pressure on Russia. This is even though the attack on the Kursk region will likely not have a decisive impact on the ultimate outcome of the war.
The goal is to show both Russia and the West that Ukraine remains capable of significant actions despite the challenges.
With this new Ukrainian success, international attention has returned to Ukraine, as the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has caused the West to forget the support Kiev needs. Now, seeing results, Ukrainians must be supported more than ever.
We are entering a new reality of war, and Ukrainian incursions into the Russian Federation may become more frequent. Ordinary Ukrainians are entirely justified in addressing the next question to the Russians: "Страшно? Привыкайте!" (Are you scared? Get used to it! - Ed.).