Whenever there are rumors circulating that a coalition has reached a solution on a package of measures to reduce public spending, or worse, Kelemen Hunor, the leader of UDMR, comes forward to announce that an agreement has been reached in negotiations, you should also expect the stormy arrival of Sorin Grindeanu, who angrily overturns the table, stating that nothing is true, and the social democrats oppose the established measures.
Recently, something even stranger is happening. An announcement is made, for example, about a 10% reduction in personnel expenses in each ministry, which can be achieved not only through salary cuts, but also through restructuring, layoffs, reducing bonuses and allowances, and Sorin Grindeanu appears in front of the TV cameras putting on a whole show that he does not agree with cutting salaries.
„The discussions on central administration have not been closed, to clarify, within the coalition. Today we have, as I said, held a National Permanent Bureau and asked for the opinion of my colleagues on this subject. We asked for a vote, the vote was unanimous, PSD does not support the cutting and reduction of salaries in the public sector,” stated Sorin Grindeanu, the party leader.
Costin Ciobanu, political science researcher at Aarhus University, Denmark, argues that PSD does not feel comfortable as a party implementing reforms, hence the confusing position of the party, playing the role of an opponent within the Government - Photo: Facebook/ Costin Ciobanu
PSD is the only party in the coalition exhibiting schizophrenic behavior, agreeing to deficit reduction measures in coalition meetings, while vehemently protesting against them in public.
To understand why this is happening, I spoke with political scientist Costin Ciobanu, a scientific researcher at Aarhus University, Denmark, and he said: "Romania is going through a difficult economic period, being for the first time in history when PSD is in power and has to take unpopular measures."
Keeping an Eye on the Revolving Door
"PSD has not been in a position to make decisions leading to austerity until now. At the same time, we know that austerity measures, in general, affect voters with limited material means," stated the political scientist for Spotmedia.ro.
"Austerity measures are a danger to the social-democratic electorate, especially since PSD is now facing this threat from AUR as well. The party is indeed in an uncomfortable position. On one hand, it is in power and has endorsed the decisions made so far in one form or another, and on the other hand, it faces this electoral threat that reforms affect its public support. So it adopts an ambiguous positioning, which in reality is a strategic one," explained expert Costin Ciobanu.
The strategic positioning mentioned above has helped Sorin Grindeanu gain the party's trust and take over its leadership, but in the long run, the double game could be penalized by a furious electorate that will no longer be deceived.
Whenever he has the opportunity, Sorin Grindeanu announces that the social democrats have economic recovery measures prepared, and those involving tax increases and public spending reductions must be accompanied by these recovery measures, whatever they may be.
Naturally, everyone agrees, and the coalition strives to prevent Romania from entering a recession.
The reform of the public system itself is done for the economic recovery, so the theme that Sorin Grindeanu keeps repeating is a form without substance, but it aims for a longer-term objective.
The rationale of the PSD leader, which he also conveys to the party, is to support the cuts, with the necessary scandal, and when the hard part is over, most likely by the end of next year, there will be a revolving door, and Grindeanu will arrive at Victoria Palace on a white horse, distributing electoral gifts disguised as economic recovery measures.
The Only Salvation: Remaining in Power
Every political leader has a plan that often fails precisely because every political leader has a plan.
"PSD has another problem," said political scientist Costin Ciobanu in a discussion with Spotmedia.ro, "not only has it not been put in a position to implement austerity measures in the past, but it also has an economic competence issue. PSD was seen in the past as a party with a certain level of governance competence. It was vulnerable on corruption issues, but at least in terms of a certain way of doing things, it seemed like a party with capable people to do them," explained the researcher from Aarhus University.
"However, the way the country's economy has been managed in the last two years, during the term of Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, has raised significant questions about the ability to manage the economy and the political message related to this," added political scientist Costin Ciobanu.
"It is very strange for the public opinion, for example, that in these days former Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu criticizes Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, especially when his economic credibility is not very high. Moreover, this creates problems for Sorin Grindeanu, the PSD leader, because he was in the same team with Marcel Ciolacu and cannot clearly distance himself from what has happened in the last 2-3 years regarding Romania's economic situation," explained the political science expert.
The schizophrenic message of the PSD will continue in the coming months, but without a departure from power. The social democrats have no plan for an alliance with AUR, one that would marginalize them again in the European political context, with the possibility of isolation in Romania or, worse, disintegration under the pressure of populist-nationalist movements.
For Sorin Grindeanu, as time passes, the possibility of becoming prime minister will increasingly smile upon him, with the party's only salvation being a new major governing coalition after the 2028 parliamentary elections.