Ukraine, a new problem! They need to categorize Western weapons: those that can hit Russia and those that cannot. How did we get here?

Volodymyr Zelensky has entered the labyrinth of democratic institutions and sophisticated negotiations with NATO member states, reaching the point of having enough military equipment, but with many restrictions on its use.
Ukraine, a new problem! They need to categorize Western weapons: those that can hit Russia and those that cannot. How did we get here?

In front of the infantryman stretches the burnt earth, marked with tree trunks cut down by carbonized trees that stubbornly refuse to collapse. The gentle May sunlight fails to tame the landscape with the end of the world from eastern Ukraine.

Reporters from Reuters agency traveled to the front where they spoke with Ukrainian soldiers, trying to understand what is happening and at what stage the conflict in Donbas has reached.

The war „is not unfolding on a map with colored lines and nicely drawn arrows. I see my comrades, I know what happened to them, and I am aware of what we are fighting against. It’s hell, it’s worse than hell,” said Viktor, an infantryman on the front line in the Donetsk region, to Reuters journalists.

Military training of Ukrainian soldiers in Donetsk
DONETSK. Ukrainian soldiers train, preparing to enter the front line – Photo: Hepta.ro

In recent weeks, Ukraine’s allies have been intensely debating whether the weapons sent to Kiev’s forces can be used to attack targets inside Russia.

Some countries have offered this unconditional agreement, including the United Kingdom, Poland, Denmark, while others have set certain conditions, for example, Belgium has requested that the F-16 planes it offers be used exclusively on Ukrainian territory, and others have refused, such as the United States, which by far offers the most significant military support.

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"We believe that they should be allowed to neutralize the military centers from which rockets are launched, the positions from which Ukraine is attacked, but we will not allow them to strike other targets in Russia, civilian targets or other military objectives," said Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, during an official visit to Germany.

Many officials and commentators in Ukraine wonder why allies are so reluctant to attack targets in Russia, given that the Kremlin is the aggressor and Putin has no problem when his forces strike residential blocks, hospitals, schools, and shops with rockets?

The hesitation of the allies has two components, which can be criticized or not, but represent political decisions and indicate that in Western chancelleries, the war in Ukraine is perceived as a long-lasting one.

Franco-German Ministerial Council in Germany
DOCUMENT. Emmanuel Macron, at a press conference held in Germany, alongside Chancellor Olaf Scholz, shows how Ukraine is being attacked with rockets launched from Russian territory - Photo: Hepta.ro

Fear of a nuclear attack

The first is not to create very high anxiety among the population, limiting the fear caused by Vladimir Putin's repeated threats to use nuclear weapons.

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"To confirm Russia's seriousness of intentions and to convince our adversaries of Moscow's readiness to escalate, it is worth considering a demonstrative nuclear explosion, a test outside the combat zone," wrote Dmitri Suslov, an influential expert from Russia, specializing in international affairs and with access to the Kremlin. 

"The political and psychological effect of the nuclear mushroom cloud, which will be presented live on all television channels worldwide, will hopefully remind Western politicians of the only thing that prevented bloody confrontations between the great powers after 1945 and which they have now forgotten - the fear of nuclear war," added Suslov.

The public statement of the Russian expert, a supporter of the aggressive policy promoted by Putin, shows that the Kremlin has seriously considered such a strategy to "scare the West" and thus compel it to stop helping Ukraine.

On the other hand, if Vladimir Putin did not receive certain messages from the US and NATO, he would have used such a tactic long ago. Raising the stakes not only means frightening enemies but also entails risks for Putin.

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The United States is concerned about recent Ukrainian strikes against Russian early warning centers for ballistic missile use. They have not been involved in supporting the war against Ukraine. But they are sensitive locations because Russia could perceive that its strategic deterrence facilities are targeted, which could undermine Russia's ability to maintain nuclear deterrence against the United States


US Official, for Washington Post

There is a possibility that the chain of command may not work, and there may be hierarchical officers who are not willing to go down in history as those who triggered a nuclear war.

For Putin, it is very difficult to calculate the political effects of such a gesture, especially since his main ally, Xi Jinping, has warned him several times not to embark on the nuclear path.

Another unknown for Putin is the reaction of NATO countries. The entry of Western troops into Ukraine, taking over defensive operations, and liberating occupied territory is a response to which the Kremlin has no clear answer and no military force capable of directly confronting the US and Europe.

A decisive moral victory

The second component is related to morality and the rules of war.  Vladimir Putin made a huge mistake on February 24, 2022, when he brutally invaded Ukraine, hoping his troops would take over Kyiv in a matter of days.

The resistance and heroism of Ukrainian soldiers, plus immense international solidarity, which to a large extent still functions today, over two years after the start of the war, have made Putin be perceived by public opinion exactly as he is, a ruthless dictator thirsty for power. 

Uzbekistan Russia
DEFEAT. Vladimir Putin continues a war that, morally, he lost over two years ago when he decided to attack Ukraine - Photo: Hepta.ro

The military failure and the prolongation of the war have turned the Kremlin into a loathsome political system, a threat to global security, and Putin's propaganda efforts, which were not insignificant, have failed to alter this reality.

Thus, Ukraine has achieved a decisive moral victory against Russia. It is a country that deserves to be helped by the international community because its inhabitants fight and resist against Moscow's treacherous attack.

Scholz: Ukraine has every right to defend itself

Many Western political leaders believe that if Ukraine were to use the weapons received and, mistakenly, in war errors are extremely frequent, they would hit civilian targets - homes, schools, shops, or hospitals, then the moral ascendancy over Russia will be in danger, especially since Putin, through his powerful propaganda machinery, will have the opportunity to say that there is no difference between him and Zelensky, between Ukraine and Russia. And Kyiv kills civilians just like Moscow's military does.

Franco-German Ministerial Council in Germany
CHANGE IN BERLIN. Olaf Scholz, slowly, is changing his position towards Putin, whom he has not wanted to upset until now. Emmanuel Macron's visit to Germany contributed to changing the attitude towards the Kremlin - Photo: Hepta.ro

"We support Ukraine and do not want an escalation; this has not changed," said Olaf Scholz, who announced that he also agrees that the weapons transferred by Germany can be used by Ukrainians to destroy specific military targets inside Russia.

"Ukraine has all the options, according to international law, for what it does. This needs to be explicitly stated. I find it strange when some people argue that it should not be allowed to defend itself and take appropriate measures for this," said the German Chancellor.

Additionally, Emmanuel Macron announced that Western experts have observed a change in the Kremlin's strategy, which attacks Ukraine with rockets launched from Russian territory. 

Lifting restrictions on the use of Western weapons under certain conditions to strike targets in Russia is a response to this strategy, explained the President of France.

In the past two weeks, with the resumption of arms and equipment transfer from the US, Ukrainian forces have managed to stabilize the situation in many points on the front, but the danger has not been averted, and the loss of human lives remains at a painfully high level.


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