In recent days, Marcel Ciolacu shows signs that he is beginning to reconcile with the idea that he has fewer and fewer chances of becoming the President of Romania. A series of scandals, but especially his association with Nordis, through lawyer Laura Vicol, a PSD parliamentarian and former head of the Legal Committee of the Chamber of Deputies, indicate that his path to the Cotroceni Palace is narrowing.
All opinion polls place the PSD leader in the presidential final, but fewer and fewer suggest any chance of him winning against any opponent.
„…I believe I will enter the second round with someone else. It’s true, I am in first place in the polls. The trend with which you enter on voting day matters a lot. And anticipating, based on these trends, I can tell you with 99% certainty that I will not enter the second round with George Simion. (…) It’s an analysis made especially by me. What I can tell you with certainty is with whom I will not enter. Certainly, I will not enter with Mr. Nicolae Ciucă,” stated Marcel Ciolacu, the leader of the PSD, in an interview on the Antena3 TV channel.
The prime minister's statement must be taken with many reservations. It's campaign time, and his main interest is not to create an anti-PSD wave a few days before the vote, although revelations that he benefited from Nordis arrangements have seriously shaken his credibility.
At this moment, Marcel Ciolacu faces difficult decisions. Not only does the "real estate scandal" seriously affect his chances of reaching the Cotroceni Palace, but it can also damage the PSD in the parliamentary elections that will take place a week after the first round of the presidential elections.
Mr. Bolojan, Mircea Geoană was the president of the PSD, sir, of the red plague, and now you are calling for unity against me. What should the electorate understand?
Marcel Ciolacu, PSD candidate in the presidential elections
This is why the leader of the Social Democrats announced that he will support the liberal Ilie Bolojan for the position of prime minister.
"I have great respect for Mr. Bolojan, and if I become the President of Romania, he will definitely be the prime minister. He is someone I could collaborate with and implement all the reforms," Marcel Ciolacu further stated, making sustained efforts to discourage a coalition of right-wing forces.
Ciolacu, Following in Iohannis's Footsteps
The major issue for the PSD leader is that he has sinned in the same way that led to the destruction of any trace of credibility of President Klaus Iohannis - the pleasure of traveling abroad in luxury planes, suspected to be paid for with public funds.
In at least one private flight, on the Nice-Bucharest route, Marcel Ciolacu was on the same plane with Laura Vicol and her husband, Vladimir Ciorbă, one of the owners of Nordis, as reported exclusively by G4Media, which also presented a document to this effect.
The cost of such a trip is around 15,000 euros, and the current prime minister stated that it was paid for with his own money, without providing any evidence.
The luxury plane also carried the son of the current prime minister, so the total sum would amount to 30,000 euros.
For comparison, the monthly net salary of the head of government is around 3,000 euros.
One of the main reasons why Klaus Iohannis became so unpopular was his penchant for luxury and trips abroad in private planes paid for by taxpayers' money.
Today, I asked a travel agency for a price for renting the luxury Gulfstream 200 plane on the Bucharest-Nice route. 69,000 euros! This is the offer I received for a round trip flight.
Elena Lasconi, USR candidate in the presidential elections
The fact that Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu is shown to have the same passions, the latter being the leader of a left-wing party whose members present themselves as close to the people and leading an austere life, has already provoked a strong negative reaction among public opinion and statements from rival candidates.
A Symbolic Gesture
Faced with a new reality, that Marcel Ciolacu has high chances of losing to any candidate who enters the second round of the presidential elections with him, party leaders are starting to move, discuss, and make decisions.
The most important TV debate of the candidates, which took place on Digi 24 and from which Marcel Ciolacu and Nicolae Ciucă were absent, had a strong impact on the public.
It was the first time that a large part of the electorate had the opportunity to see them in action and analyze the main contenders.
I agree that Mrs. Lasconi made extraordinary leaps, real progress, but you know, a presidential candidate is not made in a few months. Anyone who thinks that Klaus Iohannis appeared overnight in 2014 is mistaken. Iohannis had long been prepared for candidacy.
Cristian Pîrvulescu, political analyst
It is expected that this debate will have certain effects in terms of the candidates' support and, especially, the impact of the symbolic withdrawal of Ludovic Orban, leader of the Force of the Right party, during the show and the announcement of support for Elena Lasconi.
Ludovic Orban was rated below a percentage in terms of voting intention. At best, he could transfer a maximum of 100,000 votes to the USR president, the figure varying depending on turnout.
"His gesture was rather symbolic. It was meant to be the snowball from which the avalanche starts, that is, the announcement of the unity of right-wing forces behind the best-placed candidate," said a political source to Spotmedia.ro.
The Situation from the Year 2000 Will Not Be Repeated
The decision by Marcel Ciolacu and Nicolae Ciucă to avoid a public debate alongside the other candidates was a strategic decision by the campaign teams.
They sought to limit image damage, preferring criticism of their cowardice instead of an electoral confrontation where they had a high risk of falling into ambushes and presenting a much worse image to the public.
The electoral race has become highly tense in recent days, and a major decision, with significant impact on the presidential final, could be made by no later than Thursday, November 21.
Starting Friday, voting begins abroad, and the space for strategic decisions will significantly narrow.
Marcel Ciolacu has done everything possible to reach the final with George Simion, his only seemingly secure path to the Cotroceni Palace at the beginning of the campaign, but after the revelations in recent days, the confrontation with the AUR leader is no longer as easy, and the debates in the race for parliamentary elections and the second round tend to turn into real indictments against the PSD leader, with negative consequences for the party.
Additionally, there are signals that Social Democratic strategists may not have the capacity to mobilize voters in a potential final race between Ciolacu and Simion, using the real danger posed by the AUR leader, although it is a real one.
The collapse of enthusiasm and the anger of a significant segment of right-wing party voters could lead to a major absenteeism with catastrophic consequences for traditional parties.
It is quite unlikely for that kind of mobilization to occur as in the year 2000, during the confrontation between Iliescu and Vadim. A quarter of a century has passed since then, Romania has changed, the voters have changed, the mode of communication is completely different, and the social values and political relationships are entirely different.