The calculation that drives the liberals to break their word and fall into the ridiculousness of puerile arguments to once again move the presidential elections to winter is not at all sophisticated. On the contrary, it is a basic one in politics, the only question mark being whether it is still valid in the specific conditions of this year.
So what is the PNL’s calculation?
The experience of previous elections shows that a candidate’s potential in the first round is at least at the level of the party’s political score, an essential argument in the case of major parties.
If a few months ago, PNL feared a political score with 1 in front on June 9, the desperation of mayors and county council presidents unexpectedly brought the liberals very close to 30%, a political score that would theoretically give Nicolae Ciucă real chances to be propelled into the second round, where, PNL calculates, the Romanian vote is traditionally anti-PSD.
But a mobilization like on June 9 is not easy to achieve, because party discipline is not exactly the strong point of the liberals, especially of the organizations without PDL tradition. This is why the party apparatus needs more than just the argument of the presidential elections to put the bone to hard work.
For parliamentary elections, organizations mobilize better, not like in local elections, admittedly, but at a high level. So, their association with the presidential elections would be the best chance for Nicolae Ciucă.
What are the weaknesses of this plan, however?
If the party activists can somehow be mobilized during the campaign, it is more difficult with the liberal electorate. People, especially in large urban areas, on which PNL relies more than PSD, do not respond to political mobilization as they did in the past.
Nicolae Ciucă is not unrepresentative only for the party, but also for the liberal voters. It will be difficult to stop an exodus of these voters either towards Mircea Geoană, whom the liberals supported in 2009, by the way, or even towards Elena Lasconi, with a somewhat different profile from classic userism.
The mere political score of the party is a potential, but not every candidate can capitalize on it.
In the second round, it is even more complicated, because then it is primarily about the candidate, and Mr. Ciucă does not have too many arguments. Apart from the fact that he is not charismatic, does not evoke emotions, does not convey, Mr. Ciucă also carries the immense liability called Iohannis.
He was supported and propelled by the weakest of Romania's presidents, who is ending his 10-year term without any significant results for Romania, with a plummeting level of trust and in an extremely poor relationship with his own people.
As for the anti-PSD sentiment in the second round, it is hard to believe that Mr. Ciucă can fully capitalize on it as long as PNL is in alliance with PSD and intends to continue it after the elections, and at the base of this alliance is the Nicu&Marcel tandem.
All in all, after Klaus Iohannis brought PSD to power alongside PNL and the plan is to continue the alliance, it will be very difficult for Mr. Ciucă to massively capitalize on the anti-PSD vote in the second round, and it is possible that in a final confrontation with Marcel Ciolacu, absenteeism will be very high.