At the end of last weekend, over the course of two days, in Iran, one of the most spectacular rescue missions of an American pilot took place. He survived the crash of an F-15E fighter jet. The aircraft was likely hit by Iranian artillery. Both members of the crew ejected. The pilot was rapidly recovered. The gunner, however, landed in an area from which evacuation could not be immediately achieved.
The rescue operation was of great magnitude. American fighter teams and aircraft were involved. The CIA was engaged. Cover bombings were executed. The area was secured. The injured officer traveled 2,000 meters on foot, climbed a mountain to be detected by American location systems, and hid in a crevice in a rock – circumstances that significantly complicated the rescue plan.
The complex mission, carried out on Iranian territory, ended successfully, although two planes sent with equipment and soldiers could not take off as they sank into sandy terrain upon landing. The American forces destroyed the aircraft after retrieving the gunner from the F-15 plane hit by the enemy.
President Donald Trump monitored the intervention from the "War Room," a room in the White House connected to the military operations carried out and coordinated by the Pentagon and CIA.
The success did not generate the expected optimism among the American public regarding the war in Iran. Donald Trump tried to use it to diminish the sense of failure and insecurity.
"When pilots are shot down, you can't recover them too soon from extremely difficult territories. He managed to climb, even though he was injured, he managed to hide in a crack in the rock. Many extraordinary things happened," stated the American president to the Wall Street Journal.
Broken Promises
In a podcast by Silver Bulletin, one of the most experienced electoral analysts in the USA, Nate Silver, argued that Trump's attack on Iran represents the biggest political mistake of his career.
In the early days of the conflict, the military and aerial superiority of the United States and Israel was overwhelming. Over 30,000 strategic targets on Iranian territory were destroyed. However, the sense of defeat remains.
The reason is simple: Donald Trump created high expectations regarding the outcome of the conflict with Iran. Under the pressure of credibility crisis, in the context of the November elections, he entered this war and made three clear promises:
- Changing the Iranian political regime;
- Preventing Iran from producing a nuclear bomb;
- Quick resolution of the military conflict, within a few weeks;
After over a month since the conflict erupted, none of these promises have been fulfilled, and the situation in Iran is more confusing than ever.
War Crimes
Now, we are in the area of Trump's threats to Iran. He repeatedly announced attacks on civilian targets: road and energy infrastructure.
These actions will severely affect the civilian population not involved in the conflict. The European Commission warns that attacks on civilian targets are war crimes according to the UN Charter. Trump has entered a new dangerous territory in this regard.
"Any attack on civilian infrastructure, specifically on energy facilities, is illegal and unacceptable. This applies to Russia's war in Ukraine and everywhere else…," stated Antonio Costa, President of the European Council.
The response of the American president, expressed during a long press conference held on April 6, showed that he is not interested in and not concerned about such warnings. His decision to exert maximum pressure on Iran to accept the US terms for ending the conflict seemed firm.
On the other hand, in the same press conference, Trump did not say anything significant, did not present any strategy, and did not indicate what would happen after the ultimatum expired.
The Ormuz Paradox
Looking at the available data so far, it can be said that Donald Trump has suffered a major failure in Iran. It is not a military one, but it stems from the promises made and the effects of the war, the main one being the creation of global economic instability.
Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of the world's required fuel transits. The leverage it has is decisive in any negotiations for a peace agreement.
Moreover, since the war broke out, Iran has recorded much larger oil transactions than before the conflict erupted because, following control of the Strait of Hormuz, its tankers can circulate freely without being threatened. This paradox shows that the military force exerted on Iran has produced completely unexpected effects, far from those forecasted by Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.
Currently, we are in a major deadlock, and Trump lacks the necessary tools to overcome it. Firstly, he is in conflict with the major European powers, which no longer trust him. A year ago, shortly after his return to the White House, all European leaders went to Washington to court and flatter him. Today, they have slammed the door in his face, triggering the anger of the American president.
During the press conference, Trump also accused Japan and Australia. In these countries, American forces have a significant number of military personnel, in the tens of thousands. Trump announced that the two allied states also refused to help him.
The blame lies primarily with Trump: he did not build a coalition before attacking Iran. He simply relied on the "America First" principle, his idea being that American power - political, economic, and military - can resolve any crisis and impose its will under any conditions. A principle that proved false in the case of Iran, as well as in the cases with Canada and Denmark regarding the "purchase" of Greenland.
Currently, we have a Donald Trump making promises without coverage, with increasingly reduced political support, including within his own party.
Republicans are heading towards a disaster in the midterm elections in November. The disaster created by Trump globally unfortunately affects us all.