Spotmedia.ro has initiated a discussion with Cristian Barna on this topic, in which he explained why Russia has not given up Transnistria, how Moldova can be protected, and why NATO changed its strategy after Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine.
Cristian Barna is a graduate of the Mathematics and Sociology faculties at the University of Bucharest, a former vice-rector at the National Intelligence Academy, and teaches at Babeș Bolyai University in Cluj and the University of Bucharest.
I transcribed and edited the most important statements for clarity about the complicated political situation in the region. Additionally, you have the entire interview available in video format.
The three scenarios
There was a workshop on the Transnistria issue at the Faculty of Political Science at the University of Bucharest where three working scenarios were presented to the students.
The first scenario was that the Transnistrians, probably, if they were to discover and wish to understand what a life in freedom and prosperity means, would join their neighbors with arms and baggage and would form a united Moldova, which could easily accede to the European Union in the shortest time possible.
The second scenario was the existing status quo between Transnistria and the Republic of Moldova, between Chișinău and Tiraspol.
The third scenario, a negative one, is that of a junction of the Russian army with the forces in Transnistria, opening a new front of Kremlin forces in Ukraine, at the mouths of the Danube, in the Bugeac area.
This refers to a junction with Transnistria through southern Ukraine, bypassing Odessa and Mykolaiv, which have not fallen into the hands of the Russian Federation.
I said that this scenario could still be possible because we see, recently, the commander of the Black Sea Fleet has been replaced. This means that Putin is not satisfied with how things were going. Additionally, there is information that a river division is being formed on the Dnieper.
VIDEO. Romania jumps to Moldova's aid - Source: Spotmedia.ro
A change of strategy
And a new situation arises. Western chancelleries are already trying to discourage a possible Russian action aimed at Tiraspol, by saying that NATO is ready to take decisive steps to prevent the war in Ukraine from spreading.
The delayed way in which they acted in Ukraine has made Westerners change their strategy and not wait anymore.
I believe that this time, neither NATO, nor the European Union, obviously, nor Romania can afford to lose Moldova. To let it be conquered by Russia, regardless of what happens in Ukraine.
Moldova, defended at all costs
Macron's statement that we will be ready for NATO soldiers to act must be understood from this perspective as well.
There were discussions last year, if we remember, where both President Klaus Iohannis and other Western leaders made it truly clear that Moldova will be defended at all costs. Why? Because this has shown the Russian Federation that it cannot do whatever it pleases.
Drone attack
Until this year, when they started receiving elements of anti-aircraft defense and interception, the Moldovan authorities did not really see what was happening in their own airspace.
If NATO can attack and bring down drones before entering the airspace of a member state, then a major change in action will occur.
But for that, Ukraine must also allow this, being a sovereign, independent state and its airspace. And it is possible to allow such an action.
VIDEO. The Republic of Moldova will be defended in the event of a Russian attack - Source: Spotmedia.ro
A precedent
I strongly believe that if Putin were to try to move militarily towards the Republic of Moldova, the Dniester River will remain the border.
Someone told me that Romania does nothing but what NATO asks it to do. It is true, but if we carefully look at recent world history, the United States attacked Iraq without doing it together with NATO. I refer to the military invasion of 2002. So, they did it without NATO. There is a precedent.
How Moldova can be defended
If the Republic of Moldova, a sovereign state, requests assistance from another sovereign state. It doesn’t necessarily have to involve NATO as an entity, although, I emphasize, I do not believe NATO will have any issue in acting.
I also don't think NATO will have any hesitation in defending a sovereign and independent country from a military aggression if Russia moves towards Transnistria. On the other hand, a coalition of NATO member states, not all, could also intervene. For example, France, the USA, and Romania.
Informational warfare
The dangers are extremely high in the Republic of Moldova because it is an electoral year, and destabilization actions are overt.
There is intoxication through media resources and social networks, easily reaching Russian-speaking individuals.
The message promoted by the Kremlin in Moldova is that the European Union and NATO are aggressors, and this message will create problems by frightening the population that if Moldova takes steps towards the West, it will face the fate of Ukraine, which scares people.
But besides this informational warfare we are discussing, where it is difficult for someone to distinguish what is true and what is false, there is also a physical danger.
A lot of money has been invested in destabilization, and it will continue to be.
We all know that Ilan Shor is the spearhead of the Russian Federation in Moldova, and he is preparing destabilization actions through protests and violence.
VIDEO. In southern Moldova, the strategic situation is complicated, and Russia could develop an attack plan - Source: Spotmedia.ro
Russia wants Transnistria
The Republic of Moldova is significantly aided on the security service front. That is, the eighty athletes, for example, by successfully stopping them at the airport and returning them from their journey, mean that significant destabilization actions that were planned to take place in Moldova were thwarted.
From the latest information, these destabilization movements will come from Comrat, Gagauzian, which will be much harder to control, given that the instigators can easily move within the country.
It all depends very much on the Russian Federation, on how aggressive it wants to be in this area.
The calculations and actions in recent times indicate that they may be content with Transnistria and Gagauzian.