In politics, almost no crisis is lethal solely due to its subject. Few are those that cannot be overcome with skillful communication and strong nerves. Therefore, the major issue for Mr. Cătălin Cîrstoiu, the PSD-PNL candidate in Bucharest, is not the accusation of incompatibility in itself.
In fact, no political formation running in Bucharest is exempt from this issue. Cristian Popescu Piedone has just been burdened with an ANI report because he appointed his son-in-law to a department subordinate to the Sector 5 City Hall. His electorate doesn’t seem bothered.
The United Right Alliance has and continues to support a mayor, in Sector 1, who has already lost a first-instance trial at the Court of Appeals against ANI, because she appointed herself, with a salary included, as a manager in a European-funded project run by the Sector 1 City Hall. The detailed and well-argued reasoning of the Court of Appeals can be read here. The ADU electorate doesn't seem bothered.
So, it's hard to lift the stone of incompatibility without being hypocritical.
What kills in politics is the way a crisis is managed. And there is a long line of political corpses thus slain.
And from this point of view, Mr. Cîrstoiu probably didn't miss any mistakes he could make in the incompatibility scandal.
And it would have been a miracle if he didn't make them, as long as he lacks political and public communication experience. But he could have avoided them if he had been well guided, well trained. This would have been the job of a solid campaign staff, which evidently he doesn't have.
This can also be seen in the lack of street advertising, the lack of a program for the Capital, all kinds of inadequate campaign actions and photos, the lack even of a campaign slogan.
"Interim" Candidate
Instead of quickly covering the gaps, PNL and PSD have started to distance themselves. The term "interim" candidate, uttered in turn by Marcel Ciolacu and then by Nicolae Ciucă, combined with insistent information from sources about the candidate's withdrawal, have the effect of breaking Cătălin Cîrstoiu's political legs.
The scene, reported from sources, of questioning the sector mayors and other leaders if they wish to take over the candidacy in Bucharest, in the presence of the candidate himself, is at the limit of the grotesque.
These positions convey to the activists and electorate of the two parties that Mr. Cîrstoiu does not have real support. And to the candidate himself that it would be wise to consider withdrawing voluntarily, for personal reasons.
It is worth noting that even the paternity of the idea of this candidacy is pushed into mystery. No one is taking ownership of it anymore.
And After a Possible Withdrawal?
There is no other viable option for a common candidate, for many reasons detailed over time, starting with the fact that it is very difficult to find one with a high acceptance rate from both parties, compounded by the very short time remaining until the elections.
So, with Cătălin Cîrstoiu voluntarily withdrawn or continuing to run without any real support, the grand coalition is heading towards an informal divorce in Bucharest, meaning separate informal candidates.
PSD has already announced, from sources, support for Piedone, but he cannot become a common candidate because the liberals do not want him.
Why PNL doesn't want him is no secret. The association with Piedone would be the final nail in the coffin of this party that has lost its identity and most of its electorate.
Why would PSD want him? Because a Piedone locomotive in Bucharest would pull along an entire party that could thus cross the threshold not only in the European elections, but also in the parliamentary ones.
So, PSD would have a hinge party to rely on for a majority, in which defectors could aspire, and which would provide a maneuvering space regardless of the evolution of the relationship with PNL and regardless of who wins the presidential elections.
Of course, if they can trust that Dan Voiculescu will keep his word. Let's not forget the famous episode of the immoral solution in 2005.
Additionally, Marcel Ciolacu needs an electoral validation of the decision to remove Gabriela Firea from the race.
De Facto Divorce
So the most likely solution would be that, regardless of Cătălin Cîrstoiu's choice, the two parties will direct their electorates, explicitly or by the lack of another option, towards another candidate: the liberals towards Nicușor Dan, and the social democrats towards Piedone.
It remains to be seen what effects this would have in the sectors where the game is played: 1 and 3, because 5 is already conceded.
Some questions remain: did Messrs. Ciolacu and Ciucă really believe in the Cîrstoiu solution at first, but then why did they practically abandon him from the very beginning, or was it destined for demise, at least from the PSD's side, which would thus end up supporting the candidate they wanted from the start?