„All roads lead to Iohannis,” declared Nicolae Ciucă in the electoral show organized at Antena3, four days before the elections.
The former general navigated through the campaign from the failure of the book „A Soldier in Service of the Country,” becoming a burden for his own party, to the possibility of entering the second round of the presidential elections, as shown by several opinion polls released three days before the elections.
Nicolae Ciucă represents an existential bet for the PNL. Failing to reach the final round for the Cotroceni Palace would be a strong blow for the liberals, who would be at risk of obtaining a catastrophic result in the parliamentary elections on December 1.
"I was anti-PSD at the moment when I sought to fulfill my duty to the country, I was the head of Defense if you remember, the only head of Defense in NATO who was suspended. Why? Because I did not agree to sign for the award of a contract related to Army acquisitions," confessed the former general, according to the cited source.
Disassociation from Marcel Ciolacu
Throughout the entire electoral campaign, the message of the liberal leaders has been that they will effectively push Nicolae Ciucă into the second round of the presidential elections with the help of over 1,000 party mayors.
The conviction expressed by PNL spokespersons was based on a simple calculation, the advantage of the political party in having the second national territorial structure after the PSD.
It is true that both AUR and USR, relatively new parties, have not managed to win many mayor positions in the country, and their local branches are much weaker than those of the two political forces currently in government.
To relaunch his electoral campaign, which started on its knees, Nicolae Ciucă tried to distance himself as much as possible from Marcel Ciolacu, the leader of the PSD, even though the liberals remained in government alongside the social democrats.
For the PNL leader, these contradictory decisions have been difficult to explain, and now, 48 hours before the first round of voting, it is hard to say whether they have been accepted by the voters or not.
Iohannis's Legacy
Nicolae Ciucă has evolved over the past few months, from a political leader who could not express himself publicly to one who can engage in a relaxed conversation in front of the cameras, allowing people to understand what he says.
But his major issue throughout this period has been Klaus Iohannis, the current president who promoted him to the position of prime minister, supported him in becoming the leader of the PNL, and backed his candidacy for the presidency.
"I will respect the law and the procedures of justice regarding any citizen, including the President of Romania, in front of justice."
Nicolae Ciucă, PNL candidate for the Presidency of Romania
The former general cannot escape from the shadow of Iohannis, having the status of his political heir.
If Nicolae Ciucă manages to reach the Cotroceni Palace, it will be the first time in Romania since 1990 that a sitting president succeeds in transferring power to a protege.
"President Iohannis is not Putin, and I am not Medvedev, therefore President Iohannis will not be the Prime Minister of Romania. (...) It is good to emphasize once again that he will not be the prime minister," declared Nicolae Ciucă in an electoral show, trying to distance himself as much as possible from his political mentor.
No one expects that after the elections, in the event of a victory, Ciucă will give executive positions to Iohannis, but on the other hand, the influence of the current president over the liberals will remain, even if from the shadows.
Plagiarism, Nicolae Ciucă's Major Vulnerability
Regarding the relationship with the PSD, although Ciucă has tried several times in the last days to announce that the PNL will detach from the social democrats and will attempt, after the parliamentary elections, to form a center-right government, very few voters believe such promises.
In reality, if Nicolae Ciucă reaches the presidential final, it actually means that a large part of the population wants the continuation of the current PSD-PNL government, not a change. Only the failure of the PNL's political objective will lead to a reset of the political scene and the realization of a possible parliamentary majority without the PSD, but even here, several domino pieces need to fall into place.
Everything will depend on Marcel Ciolacu's score and the PSD's score in the elections. If the social democrats achieve over 30% in the parliamentary ballot, they will not be removed from government under any circumstances.
Nicolae Ciucă reaching the presidential final would be a surprise and would confirm the mobilization power of the liberals in the field.
Based on his political actions so far, the former general would not pose a danger to Romania in terms of security, the relationship with the European Union, and NATO.
His major vulnerability remains the plagiarism of his doctoral thesis. The actions taken during his time as prime minister to cover up the situation will gain weight after the enthusiasm of a potential victory in the presidential final fades away.
Possible Consequences on the Candidates Hierarchy
At this moment, 48 hours before voting day, Nicolae Ciucă is on an upward trend of public support, being within a range of 2 to 5 percentage points from a possible final with Marcel Ciolacu, according to some polls and campaign team data.
Like many Romanians, I also believed that at some point PSD would change... there would be a turning point, and it would align with what the democratic and leftist component means, that there is a left that respects all democratic values.
Nicolae Ciucă, PNL candidate for the Presidency of Romania
A very close score is observed between Elena Lasconi, George Simion, and Nicolae Ciucă, with them being rated within the margin of error of sociological research.
An indecision of over 15% noted among the electorate who intend to vote can steer the political race in any direction.
"In the last two weeks, and especially in the last days, the intensity of electoral disputes has increased significantly, as well as controversies and public interest. Against this backdrop, the intention to vote has started to undergo significant changes from day to day, with possible consequences, I emphasize possible, on the hierarchy of the candidates," announced Remus Ștefureac, director of INSCOP.
Nicolae Ciucă will start his Sunday knowing as little about the future of his political career as most Romanian voters called to the polls. Such an uncertain, tense, and unpredictable situation once again demonstrates how important free elections and democracy are in a country, although many jaded individuals nowadays consider them mere empty words.