The biggest damage resulting from the scandal of the candidate for the Mayor of the Capital City is suffered by Marcel Ciolacu, for many reasons. And this could just be the beginning.
1. The merger was not desired by PSD, but somehow imposed by Marcel Ciolacu under the pretext, which obviously did not resonate with the electorate, of stability and anti-extremism, actually to save the partner he needs for governance, now and in the future.
PSD swallowed it with knots, and now, when it becomes a definite image prejudice, it is natural to blame the leader for it. If it also proves to be an electoral prejudice, the bill will be harsh.
2. The joint candidate Cătălin Cîrstoiu is attributed to Marcel Ciolacu. And if the idea had been Klaus Iohannis’s, as speculated, the one who proposed and supported it was Marcel Ciolacu, as stated by both Cătălin Cîrstoiu and Nicolae Ciucă. So the collapse of the solution is also on Marcel Ciolacu’s account.
Mr. Ciolacu writes in a post that the solution of the two party candidates is the correct one for Bucharest. On the contrary, he began by proposing an incorrect solution. And he only arrived at the correct one after trying incorrect solutions for 15 hours.
3. A leader who suffers such failures on such high stakes undermines his authority and trust capital. The projection is one of amateurism and insecurity. Marcel Ciolacu has fallen into the sin of taking the party on his own account, and that always comes at a high price.
If they remain with separate candidates for the Mayor of the Capital City, it is very hard to believe that the solution will work – a separate campaign at the top and a joint one otherwise, and the two will not attack each other. If not for any other reason, at least because the sense of falseness, of pretense, with which the campaign began, will wreak havoc.
Furthermore, the alliance sends a first message of helplessness, records a first major strategic failure, which even questions its viability, especially since, as a liberal told me, the two parties have never detested each other more in the territory.
It is becoming increasingly clear that there will be no common candidate for the presidential elections, nor will there be a common list for the parliamentary elections. Why did they then move the presidential elections? And, in general, why all this hassle? Just to return to the starting point?
On the other hand, in the current configuration, the coalition is preparing to lose in Bucharest, a symbolic position, not with one, but with two candidates. For two failures, not just one.
It is hard to believe that Gabriela Firea will be able to recover all the PSD electorate from Piedone, but she will weaken him greatly. Similarly, Burduja will not take all the PNL electorate from Nicușor Dan, but will chip away at it, probably not enough for him to lose the advantage of being the incumbent mayor.
So, in the current configuration, it is expected that this solution will be a gift for Nicușor Dan, recent opinion polls have shown this, conducted for the scenario where the coalition will have two candidates.
This after the coalition’s announced objective was to free Bucharest from the current mayor. So a major failure for the coalition, from PSD’s perspective even greater than a victory for Piedone.
What will follow in the coming weeks will probably, in a bizarre way, actually be a battle for power between Marcel Ciolacu and Gabriela Firea.
I find it hard to believe that Gabriela Firea enters the race to make Nicușor Dan mayor and to add another single defeat to her record. So she will do everything in her power to win.
Sebastian Burduja does not hinder her much, he didn’t have many votes in the liberal area, but Burduja can take votes away from Nicușor Dan. The one who hinders her greatly is Piedone, he loses votes there, so I am convinced that he will strive with all his might to get him to withdraw.
Let’s not forget that Piedone and Mrs. Firea have a common spiritual patron, Dan Voiculescu. Does he have an interest in killing both of his children in the Capital?
There is room for maneuver until the printing of the ballots for Bucharest. For now, Piedone accuses collusion in favor of Nicușor Dan, which can be both an electoral attack line and preparation of an argument for withdrawing from an unfair fight.
The key is Dan Voiculescu. If Piedone is withdrawn, the battle will be between Firea and Nicușor Dan, who will have to rethink their entire campaign. She retains the first chance, but diminished, if the unaffiliated PSD electorate mobilized by Piedone would substantially flow into Mrs. Firea’s ballot box.
And if Gabriela Firea wins, after all the initial removal story, with the aura of being the PSD savior, Marcel Ciolacu’s seat will be severely shaken.
What options does Marcel Ciolacu have? Not many. If Mrs. Firea wins, he will have a formidable rival, if Mrs. Firea loses, the defeat will be of the one who played with the candidacies.
As for Nicolae Ciucă, he cannot lose what he did not have. When he does not execute orders from Klaus Iohannis, he watches Remus Borza lead PNL.