Elena Lasconi is the USR representative who obtained the most votes, 1.7 million, on November 24, 2024, entering the second round of the presidential elections alongside Călin Georgescu.
She is also the politician who will remain in Romania’s recent history for ending the PSD’s dominance, blocking the social-democrat candidate from reaching the presidential final for the first time since the fall of the communist regime.
Furthermore, Elena Lasconi’s score in the first round of the presidential elections, later annulled, helped USR to achieve over 12% in the parliamentary elections, coming very close to matching the performance of the Liberals, 14%. This comeback followed the disaster in the European Parliament elections, where USR obtained 8.7% and changed leadership, with Elena Lasconi becoming the party’s president.
In my opinion, the USR leader had the opportunity to analyze and understand both her political performance and the context that led her to the presidential final.
Emergency Exit
The changes in society after the annulment of the presidential elections, as well as the new reality created by Russia's strong interference in Romania's politics, offered no way for her to win against Călin Georgescu.
I state this as a personal opinion, formed after discussions with several sociologists. In all honest projections made for the second round, Elena Lasconi would not have won, but would have lost to Călin Georgescu. I was interested in the subject and hope that, at some point, a professional will publicly and logically explain the situation created from the presidential final regarding the victory chances of the two candidates.
The first round of the presidential elections took place on November 24, and the elections were annulled on December 6, during which surveys were conducted, focus groups were held, and the data exists.
It is also true what former President Traian Băsescu claimed, namely that if Marcel Ciolacu had entered the second round, he would have become president. The same projections showed that he would have won.
In my view, the decision to annul the presidential elections, the involvement of the secret services, and the use of the Constitutional Court as an emergency exit from a fire were catastrophic for Romania, and for a long time to come, we will bear the consequences of the collapse of the democratic process.
But what caught my attention throughout the past months is that no government in the European Union, not even the authoritarian and corrupt one of Viktor Orban in Hungary, has raised an issue against Romania for canceling the elections. Why?
Moreover, a series of official representatives of France, including President Macron, the United Kingdom, Germany supported the controversial decision made in Bucharest, while the rest of the European leaders remained silent, without criticizing the decision.
The only strong positions, amplified by social media, came from the Kremlin and the new Trump administration.
This situation leads me to suspect that Romania's representatives made the decision to annul the elections only after informing and probably consulting with the European Union leaders and the Biden administration, which was in the process of transitioning power to the newly elected president.
I specify that I do not have concrete evidence of these communications, and the statement is made solely based on observations regarding the political positions of Romania's partners and enemies after the CCR's decision to annul the elections.
Missed Opportunity
Elena Lasconi, as a mature and responsible leader, was required to analyze the series of events surrounding the annulment of the elections and act accordingly. Unfortunately, she stumbled from one mistake to another.
From the letter addressed to Donald Trump to the decision to re-enter the presidential race, even though she knew very well that she no longer had the party's support, she gambled everything on her own vision and ended up at a standstill.
I do not know what chances Nicușor Dan has to reach the presidential final, but based on the data up to this point, Elena Lasconi has no chance.
However, there are still three weeks until the elections, and the candidates' hierarchy can change drastically.
What I want to say is that Elena Lasconi benefited from a favorable circumstance, one that political leaders rarely encounter - to solidify her position within the party, to join the Capital's mayor and support him - a victory for him would make her the most important power broker in Romania, with significant influence over the government, while a defeat for Nicușor would position her to claim that she did everything possible, but she would have been a more suitable candidate, consolidating her position in leading the party and becoming, likewise, a strong voice, if not the strongest, of the pro-European coalition.
A Little Patience
Unfortunately, the choices she made were wrong, leading her to rely on a single card that is far from being the ace of clubs, alienating her party and losing control over her own electoral campaign.
The question remains whether USR will manage to survive this internal crisis if Nicușor Dan does not reach the Cotroceni Palace?
The politician Elena Lasconi was defeated by the television star Elena Lasconi, who confused the popularity gained from a series of electoral victories with wisdom. If she had had "a little patience," as Mr. Trahanache of Caragiale used to say, the world could have been at her feet.