Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal argues that Vladimir Putin cannot afford to end the war in Ukraine because such a decision could be politically fatal for him.
In an interview with Euronews, he compared the power mechanism in the Kremlin to „riding a bicycle”: if you stop abruptly, you fall.
The statements come at a time when the European Union has blocked a plan to mobilize 90 billion euros to support Ukraine, and debates on European security are intensifying.
"In Russia, the hero is glorified. If he stops, he falls."
In the "Europe Today" show on Euronews, Kristen Michal said that, although he does not claim to understand the Russian leader, the logic of authoritarian regimes explains Moscow's persistence in aggression, even in the context of negotiations.
"At this moment, Putin has more people under arms than at the beginning of the war. If he were to stop killing in Ukraine, what would he do with them?" the Estonian prime minister stated.
He explained that in Russia "the hero is glorified," and stopping the war would undermine the narrative built around the conflict. "If he stops, he falls," Michal warned.
According to him, an early peace, without solid security guarantees for Ukraine, could generate instability not only in Russia but also in the rest of Europe.
90 billion euros for Ukraine, politically blocked
Kristen Michal expressed confidence that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa will find alternative solutions to unblock the 90 billion euros to support Ukraine.
"They have different plans to deliver the money," he said, referring to recent statements by European leaders in Kiev. When asked what these plans entail, he avoided giving details: "They will say."
The prime minister emphasized the huge stakes of the decision: "If Europe cannot make such major decisions that affect our security, there will probably be many discussions on how Europe as a whole will decide things."
Frozen Russian assets still "on the table"
Asked about using frozen Russian assets as a source of funding for Ukraine, Michal said that this option "is not ruled out."
"They are still frozen, which is a good thing," he stated, recalling that in the past, sanctions required renewal every six months, but now they are more firmly anchored.
At the same time, the Estonian prime minister insisted that the commitment of 90 billion euros must be respected, regardless of the opposition from Hungary and Slovakia.
"We decided. Everyone was in that room. They decided to withdraw, but we still decided," he said.
Referring to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's position on Russia, Michal noted that it remains difficult for other European leaders to understand. "He knows exactly that no one understands his position, that we should ask for European security from a dictator in Russia," the Estonian prime minister stated.
Europe must invest more in defense
Amid tense relations between Europe and the US, Kristen Michal said he supports US President Donald Trump's calls for Europe to take greater responsibility for its own defense.
"Europe should invest more in security. It's a message we understand," he stated.
This year, Estonia allocates 5.4% of its GDP to defense, one of the highest percentages in NATO. "It's not easy. But I know that my grandchildren will live in peace because our neighbor knows we take it seriously," Michal said.
The Estonian prime minister also rejected the rhetoric that Europe is weak or in decline. If it fulfills its defense commitments, the continent will be "in a better position in five, seven, ten years," he said, emphasizing that Europe remains one of "the freest spaces in the world."
G.P.