On the 1115th day of the war, Russia surprisingly faces more issues than Ukraine. For the second time this week, a drone attack targeted Moscow in the morning.
Authorities announced that they shot down four targets. These fell in various locations in the capital and suburbs, causing a fire and various damages. An airport in the Moscow region temporarily halted its operations.
Ukrainian special services (SBU) hit a missile depot in the Russian region of Belgorod, located on the border with Ukraine, and two natural gas compression stations in the Russian regions of Tambov and Saratov, hundreds of kilometers away from the front, with drones during the night.
Another drone attack launched by Ukraine targeted the Tuapse refinery in the Krasnodar region, where a gasoline tank exploded, causing a massive fire.
In addition to the drone attacks on refineries, Moscow also faces issues with Gazprom, likely the most affected Russian company by international sanctions. The Russian energy giant continues to suffer losses, and its market share in the EU has plummeted.
On the other hand, Russia launched fewer than 30 drones last night, with most being intercepted by air defense. However, a hospital in the Kharkiv region was the target of a double drone attack by the Russians.
Meanwhile, the United States expresses "cautious optimism" regarding a possible ceasefire in Ukraine after American envoy Steve Witkoff's visit to Moscow, as conveyed by American national security advisor Mike Waltz.
The Kremlin announced on Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a message to his American counterpart Donald Trump through American emissary Steve Witkoff regarding his ceasefire proposal for Ukraine.
American intelligence services believe that Vladimir Putin has not given up on the desire to control Ukraine, despite the Trump administration's efforts to end the war. Even if the Russian leader agrees to a temporary ceasefire, he will use it to regroup and rearm his forces, according to current and former American officials.
Issues in Russia
- Drone Attack on Moscow - Russia announced this morning that it shot down four Ukrainian drones heading towards Moscow. One drone hit a residential complex in the city center, destroying the roof and entrance, while another crashed into an abandoned building, causing a fire. In the suburbs, a drone hit a house, damaging several vehicles, while another hit an unfinished apartment complex, as reported by Meduza. Vnukovo airport in the Moscow region temporarily suspended its operations, as reported by Ukrainska Pravda. According to Governor Andrei Vorobiov, two drones were shot down above the town of Balashikha near the capital, with debris falling on a construction site. Another drone was shot down in Jeleznodorojni, about 20 km east of Moscow, Vorobiov announced. The fourth drone was shot down in the Leninsky district south of Moscow, with the debris falling on a residential building under construction "where nobody lives yet." "According to preliminary information, no one was injured," Vorobiov emphasized.
- Refinery in Flames after Ukrainian Attack - A fire of over 1,000 sqm broke out at the Tuapse refinery in the Krasnodar region of Russia in the early hours after an attack attributed to Ukraine, announced Governor Veniamin Kondratiev. The explosion was heard around 5:00 in the morning. Social media images show a massive fire at the refinery site. According to Kondratiev, a gasoline tank is ablaze. Over 100 firefighters are working to extinguish the fire. Ukraine has not officially commented on the attack. The Tuapse refinery, with an annual processing capacity of 12 million tons, is a strategic target for supplying the Russian army. The facility has been targeted in previous attacks, including on February 26.
- Missile Depot Hit by Drone - The Ukrainian special services (SBU) announced in a statement that its drones hit on Thursday night a "depot of missiles intended for (S-300/S-400 type) systems" in the Russian Belgorod region on the border with Ukraine, causing explosions. The SBU assures that it also targeted and hit two natural gas compression stations in the Russian regions of Tambov and Saratov, located hundreds of kilometers from the front, with drones developed by Kiev, replicating Russian strikes.
- Gazprom in Decline - Gazprom is likely the most affected Russian company by international sanctions. Although Russia's economy has held up so far, several industries show signs of weakness, and the increase in military spending worries the Kremlin. According to sources within the company, the number of employees at Gazprom Export, the division responsible for gas sales to Europe for over 50 years, has dramatically decreased to just a few dozen people from 600 five years ago. With nearly no European customers, the division's activity has reduced to commercial disputes with former EU buyers. Furthermore, 1,500 employees at the central headquarters in the Lakhta Center, Europe's tallest skyscraper, are set to be laid off. In 2023, Gazprom reported net losses of $7 billion, the first annual losses since 1999, the year Vladimir Putin came to power. In the first nine months of 2024, the company recorded new losses, and in December, its shares hit the lowest level since 2009. Currently, Gazprom's market share in the EU has dropped from 35% to just 7%, and the EU aims to completely eliminate dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2027.
Situation on the Frontline
- Fewer Drones Launched by Russians - Russia attacked Ukraine last night with 27 drones, with 16 shot down by air defense. Another nine drones missed their target. The aerial attack targeted the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, as communicated by Ukrainian Air Forces.
- Double Drone Strike on a Hospital - Russia launched a double drone strike on a hospital in the village of Zolochiv, in the Kharkiv region, as reported by Kyiv Post. The first attack occurred in the early hours, injuring a paramedic, announced Oleh Syniehubov, head of the regional military administration. "The drone strike ignited the roof. 40 minutes later, Russia launched a second attack with two more drones," Syniehubov wrote on Telegram. Patients were unharmed as they were in a shelter, and some had already been transferred to other medical facilities, as informed by the Ukrainian Ministry of Health. The Emergency Situations Service says the second attack targeted the firefighter crews intervening to neutralize the initial fire that engulfed an area of 1,500 sqm, but no one was injured. The fire was extinguished after six hours.
Peace Talks
- Putin's Message to Trump - The Kremlin announced on Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin conveyed a message to his American counterpart Donald Trump through emissary Steve Witkoff regarding his ceasefire proposal for Ukraine, which raises both reservations and "prudent optimism" in Moscow, as reported by AFP. The Russian President "conveyed additional information and signals through Witkoff to President Trump," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, expressing "cautious optimism" during his daily briefing. "When Witkoff conveys all the information to President Trump, we will decide on the timing for a discussion" between the two presidents, Peskov stated.
- Putin Speaks with Saudi Prince - Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone on Thursday night with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, particularly addressing the conflict in Ukraine, as announced by the Kremlin in a statement. Vladimir Putin "expressed high appreciation for Saudi Arabia's mediation efforts," hosting Russian-American talks on February 18. In turn, Mohammad bin Salman emphasized the importance of resolving the crisis in Ukraine and expressed readiness "to continue contributing to the normalization of Russian-American relations," according to the same source.
Other Relevant Information
- American espionage says Putin is not giving up - American intelligence services believe that Vladimir Putin has not given up on the desire to control Ukraine, despite the efforts of the Trump administration to end the war, reports the Washington Post, citing sources with access to classified documents. Reports from American intelligence services cast doubt on whether Putin is willing to stop the war. One of the classified assessments, distributed to members of the Trump administration and dated March 6, states that Putin remains determined to gain control over Kiev. Even if Putin agrees to a temporary ceasefire, he will use it to regroup and rearm his forces, current and former American officials told the cited newspaper. They believe that Russia could violate the terms of an agreement by staging a provocation and blaming Ukraine. Other officials say that intelligence services remain cautious about the conditions under which Putin might agree to peace and point out that there are no signs that the Russian leader has abandoned the idea of bringing Ukraine into Russia's sphere of influence. It is not clear whether the intelligence report from March 6 was transmitted to Trump, but a source told WP that this type of information is traditionally brought to the attention of the president. According to another source, some American assessments of Putin's intransigence seem to irritate Trump.
- Long-range bombs are back - The United States is set to resume deliveries of long-range action bombs to Ukraine (known as Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs - GLSDB). Details HERE.
- Americans believe Trump is "too close" to Russia - A poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos shows that 56% of Americans believe that U.S. President Donald Trump is "too close" to Russia, in the context of recent changes in U.S. foreign policy. Details HERE.
- Macron meets with Defense sector leaders - Emmanuel Macron is meeting today at the Élysée Palace with the heads of French companies in the Defense sector ((Safran, Thalès, Naval Group, Dassault*, KNDS)). According to Le Figaro, representatives from 4,000 medium and small companies in the industry will also be present. Against the backdrop of the Russian threat, Macron wants to find out if the French military industry can produce more and at what pace. In turn, sector representatives are awaiting guarantees from the French state, which allocates around 50 billion euros annually for defense.
- Help from Sweden - Sweden will offer Ukraine over 137.7 million dollars in humanitarian aid, announced on Thursday the Minister for Development, Benjamin Dousa. This is the largest civilian support package to date, and the funds will be directed towards humanitarian assistance, as well as towards the reconstruction and development of Ukraine. Dousa stated that the funds will address urgent needs such as providing energy, housing, medical care, demining, safe schooling, vocational training, and support for veterans.