Only those who refuse to see reality can claim that Russia has not lost the war. With the suppression of any form of opposition, the transformation of the economy into a war economy without investments and technological innovation in the last three years, and with an army that has suffered losses of nearly a million soldiers, wounded, and deceased, Russia no longer has any connection to the „power” it had before the conflict began.
Vladimir Putin’s regime remains in power with the help of secret services and hybrid warfare operations carried out both domestically and abroad.
Any change in the political regime in Moscow will lead to an unprecedented crisis, followed by terrifying internal struggles. There is a possibility that Putin, through the system he has created, may continue to hold power in the Kremlin for at least another decade. Despite being a relatively young leader at 72 years old, this does not guarantee that he will be able to change Russia’s fate.
A fate sealed on February 24, 2022, when he ordered the invasion of Ukraine by his armies, making a completely wrong decision, based on dubious FSB information and an ideological projection that he and his circle of power cultivated during the pandemic isolation period - claiming that "Ukraine is not a country, rightfully belonging to Russia."
As has been previously stated, Vladimir Putin had an invasion plan prepared for two weeks, aiming to remove Volodymyr Zelensky and occupy the country.
The plan failed because the Ukrainians unexpectedly resisted the military attack, and the country's president gained admiration and support from Western states, shocked and threatened by Russia's invasion.
For those who remember, the weapons, money, and information necessary for the Ukrainian military forces in their fight against the Kremlin's army came slowly, after lengthy negotiations, political positioning, and hesitations due to the fear of "escalating the conflict" and turning it into a "nuclear" one.
Trump, Aligned Perfectly with Putin Since 2016
Ukraine is devastated by war. According to estimates, it has also sacrificed about a million soldiers, wounded, and deceased in battle. It has lost cities, civilians, children abducted by occupation forces, lost 20% of its territory, but it has resisted, forever altering power relations within Europe.
The scene in Washington, with the unprecedented diplomatic ambush prepared by JD Vance and Trump for Zelensky, was shocking, an episode of "American infamy," as described by a New York Times journalist, but an expected chapter in the context of this conflict that has affected the entire world.
Dozens of experts, journalists, and experienced diplomats knew as early as 2016 that Donald Trump was perfectly aligned with Vladimir Putin. The latter helped him win the elections, using his hacker armies to extract information from Democrats and to create, through social networks, the MAGA movement, a conservative-extremist movement that seduced millions of dissatisfied Americans with political leaders.
We are all with Ukraine for as long as necessary. Achieving a good outcome for Kiev is not just a matter of right or wrong. It is vital for the security of each nation here and many others.
Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
The American Congress launched two impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump in his first term, both related to his relations with Russia. Although they failed, many of his close associates were indicted and imprisoned following investigations by prosecutors that revealed the involvement of Russian representatives in financing Donald Trump's election campaigns and Moscow's interference in U.S. electoral processes.
Unfortunately, political support for Donald Trump was stronger, and his return to power could not be avoided due to strategic errors made by the Democrats.
Many expected, without any real basis, a new Trump to return to the White House, with a changed attitude towards Vladimir Putin. However, the new American president, even during the electoral campaign, coordinated his actions with the Kremlin leader following telephone conversations, reported by U.S. journalists, never acknowledged by Trump but not denied either.
Trump Has No Leverage Over Putin
The new American president also made a strategic mistake, not as significant as Putin's, repeatedly boasting during the electoral campaign that if he won the elections, he would quickly bring peace to Ukraine, even announcing that he would do so "within 24 hours."
He never explained how he would achieve this, but his vice president stated in an interview that the U.S. would pressure both Putin and Zelensky to sit down at the negotiating table and make some concessions. If not, the leverage used for Ukraine would be cutting military aid, and the one used for Russia would be further arming Kiev.
With Trump back in the White House, Zelensky was the first to announce his agreement to cede some territories occupied by Russia in exchange for a solid peace based on security guarantees. From Moscow, for over a month, there has been only deep silence or even worse - maximal demands, such as NATO withdrawal from Eastern Europe, expressed in secret negotiations with the Americans in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
The attack launched by Vance and Trump on Zelensky at the White House clearly showed, to the entire world, that the new administration actually has no leverage over Putin, and the only method Trump is trying to use to impose a ceasefire is the removal of Zelensky, precisely the Kremlin's strategy.
Negotiations Between the USA and Russia Have Lost All Value
Thus, it has come to the unexpected situation where the much-criticized Europe, known for lengthy discussions and slow decision-making, which is entirely true, has overnight become the only hope of the free world in confronting dictatorships, authoritarianism, and political extremism.
At this moment, it is not clear if Europe will succeed, but it is clear that it will try. The strong signals sent by Keir Starmer, the British Prime Minister, Emmanuel Macron, and Friedrich Merz, the future Chancellor of Germany, indicate the formation of a European alliance willing to resist Russia's expansion.
However, this is precisely what Vladimir Putin is trying to avoid. Donald Trump can do great harm to Ukraine and Europe, at least in the near future, as his popularity plummets due to the chaotic manner in which he leads the USA. Nevertheless, the reaction on the continent will create greater or lesser obstacles regarding both Trump's and Putin's actions.
Following the scene at the White House on Friday, negotiations between the USA and Russia are compromised, and anything discussed there will have no value if not validated by Ukraine and European states.
While Trump's attack on Zelensky might delight MAGA supporters, it is unlikely to be well-received by the majority of voters, including nearly 30% of Republicans who, even now, believe that it is in the USA's interest to stand by Ukraine. While most Americans want the war to end, they almost certainly do not want it to end on Vladimir Putin's terms.
Brtet Stephens, New York Times journalist, article "Day of American Infamy"
No one knows if NATO will withstand the crisis caused by Donald Trump; in any case, Article 5 is suspended during this American administration, but surely, a new type of military alliance will be created between European states, Canada, the UK, and probably Australia and New Zealand, whether formal or informal.
The political leaders' objectives are immediate and designed to satisfy their interests and those of the power circles that support them, which is why they present serious deficiencies in terms of analysis and adaptation to reality.
For this reason, many strategies, such as the crisis caused by Trump and Vance at the White House, instead of serving those who orchestrated it, lead to unexpected developments. Often, such a brutal action turns against those who carried it out, putting them in new situations they never thought of and for which they are not prepared.