There is no time for lamentations and settling scores; in just 6 days, Romanians will vote for something even more important than the president, namely the Parliament, which will determine the majority and the government. Then, the second round of the presidential elections will follow.
How will Sunday’s result impact the parliamentary elections?
The sovereigntist current will reach at least one-third of Parliament, that’s what we should expect. Those who voted for Georgescu and Simion have no reason to go in another direction. On the contrary, it’s possible that adherence will increase.
How Georgescu's votes will be divided between AUR and SOS is difficult to anticipate precisely without an announcement from him. But it's possible that the lion's share will go to Mrs. Șoșoacă's party.
USR will benefit from a bonus due to Mrs. Lasconi's entry into the second round, but also from a fear reaction to the rise of sovereigntists. They could score between 16 and 20%.
Paradoxically, PNL has a chance to recover something because they already have a leader prepared to take over the party. Mr. Bolojan is not just a crisis makeshift solution, but a credible and solid reconstruction solution, long missed due to Klaus Iohannis' whims. A solution that can generate mobilization.
I have already anticipated that Bolojan's era could only begin if the liberals suffered a serious loss, which happened, and the entire PNL leadership was swept away by defeat.
If Elena Lasconi and Ilie Bolojan form an official president-prime minister tandem, it's possible that the scores of the two parties will increase. Together with UDMR, which cannot be alongside AUR and SOS, they could project the beginning of a government majority, with effects (which I will return to) also on the presidential final.
The worst is for PSD, stunned by a defeat they did not expect. For the first time since '89, the party has no candidate in the presidential final. Marcel Ciolacu has resigned, the entire leadership is discredited, and they don't have a Bolojan to take over.
Of course, they have enough brains not to start internal slaughter now, but that's what everyone is thinking, shocked and hit by a train they didn't even see coming.
Depending on how quickly they recover, the wounded body of PSD can have two types of reactions in the parliamentary elections: either a mobilization with all the adrenaline of desperation for losing power, or a total collapse.
The presidential final appears to be extremely complicated and far from being determined
Călin Georgescu starts with 3,401,726 votes, his and George Simion's, which he can't miss.
Elena Lasconi has her 1,772,500 votes. Probably she can also count on the majority of Kelemen Hunor's votes, 416,353, which, as mentioned, cannot go towards the extremist side.
What else can each of them capture?
PNL votes can largely go towards Elena Lasconi. Ilie Bolojan has announced this direction, but the party and the electorate still need to respect it, which is not very easy for several reasons. Many liberals are actually ideologically closer to Georgescu, and there are some wounds in the relationship with USR.
It will be easier if the tandem I mentioned above is created, meaning for the perspective of governance.
At the same time, Ilie Bolojan would take the forefront of competence, Mrs. Lasconi's major vulnerability. If they rely on a good score in the parliamentary elections, the argument for voting would be even stronger.
What PSD will do is still hard to say. The party no longer has a leader to guide them, and ideologically, they are closer to Georgescu than Lasconi. Plus, there are chronic hostilities between the two parties. There are already Social Democrats, like Senator Zamfir, who have announced personal support for Călin Georgescu.
Social Democrats could be attracted in large numbers by Mrs. Lasconi only with the promise of being included in the government, which, however, would saddle Mrs. Lasconi with the continuation of the current formula, obviously detested. A kind of the same thing in a different package.
Moreover, a formula of national unity, thus isolating the sovereigntists in opposition, will help them grow, as complicated times are ahead. It is true that it could turn out to be the only formula to have a majority.
Călin Georgescu has the potential to attract a part of PSD, smaller or larger depending on the above conditions. But Călin Georgescu's greatest potential lies elsewhere.
His notoriety is only now exploding. Shockingly, he achieved nearly 23% with almost no notoriety. Now he will be known, exposed on all screens, everyone is talking about him, his ideas, he is the current political star.
How many percentage points will this additional notoriety bring him? How many will resonate with him after discovering him? Very difficult to anticipate at the moment.
Both winners and losers need to make essential changes for December 1 and 8
First, they need to understand the causes and extent of the shock, which I have already written about, and not imagine that Elena Lasconi's entry into the final was anything other than a defensive reaction to the greater evil.
Moreover, it is essential that the pro-European discourse is not one of radicalization and shaming others. Continuing to accuse people for how they voted, to curse them, as seen on Facebook, to hurl insults only generates further radicalization of those already radicalized.
And last but not least, threatening with services, the Constitutional Court, and other institutions is useless. We are where we are because the Constitutional Court removed Șoșoacă. You don't stop such a current with bans and punishments.
As evidence, Șoșoacă was removed and a bigger dragon appeared. They closed 20 thousand TikTok accounts, the next day 30 thousand appeared. The correct solution is to understand the cause of the current and work on it with wisdom and tenacity.