Why did Georgescu win? Hybrid war or revolt?

Why did Georgescu win? Hybrid war or revolt?

Călin Georgescu, a nationalist, anti-European, and pro-Russian candidate, is leading after the first round of the presidential elections, while Elena Lasconi and Marcel Ciolacu are competing for the second place.

With this election, Romania follows the European trend of radicalization, after right-wing radicals from the FPÖ won in Austria, and the radical right-wing party AfD is on the rise in Germany.

It is not yet clear if Georgescu's rise is solely due to his excessive campaign on social media in the last two weeks, or if it is also a result of support from Russia, especially since the Moscow press was quick to applaud his success. The news agency Ria Novosti bluntly headlined: "Georgescu is a candidate aligned with Russia."

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The independent candidate is a former shadow prime minister of AUR, from where he withdrew after making apologies for Marshal Ion Antonescu and Legionary leader Corneliu Zelea Codreanu. The General Prosecutor's Office opened a criminal case for his pro-Antonescu and Legionary statements, without rushing to bring it to a conclusion, as legal institutions also have their share of radicalization.

On the Internet, there is a revival of the extremist movement from the interwar period, but it is not yet strong enough to propel Georgescu to the second round of the presidential elections.

A land improvement specialist with expertise in Western states, Georgescu has worked at the Ministries of Environment and Foreign Affairs in several governments, both right-wing and left-wing. He was a special rapporteur for human rights and hazardous waste at the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (2010-2012), served as President of the European Support Center in Winterthur, Switzerland, of the Club of Rome (2013–2015), and became Executive Director of the UN Global Sustainability Index Institute (2015–2016).

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The Romanian Intelligence Service stated two weeks ago that there is no foreign interference in the electoral campaign in Romania, but Georgescu's very high score, especially due to funding on TikTok, could also be related to the hybrid warfare that Russia is waging across Europe.

Although the support of extremists and their rise in influence due to social media algorithms is artificial, the speeches of true radicals resonate with the public, given the failure of traditional parties, seen as part of a system that does not work in favor of the majority.

The removal of Diana Șoșoacă from the presidential race through a strategy of the PSD, implemented by the Constitutional Court, has radicalized the nationalist electorate, while the democratic electorate has been faced with unpalatable options, consisting of politicians lacking charisma and very weak credentials.

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Georgescu's rhetoric was more successful not only because he was anti-system, but also because it came from someone with much stronger academic credentials than other candidates, some of whom were accused of plagiarism (Mircea Geoană and Nicolae Ciucă), while others had poor educational backgrounds (Marcel Ciolacu couldn't present his high school diploma, and Elena Lasconi graduated from a private college in Deva).

Serious, speaking about peace, conscience, God, but also about the disastrous economic situation, Călin Georgescu manages to give a touch of originality to the banalities he expresses.

Georgescu's missionary zeal, the radical electorate's repulsion towards the haughtiness of PSD and PNL leaders, so devoid of substance in their messages, the corruption allowed to flourish by governments patronized by Klaus Iohannis, plus the president's arrogance, all contributed significantly to yesterday's elections.


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