Tense discussions within the governing coalition regarding the Bucharest elections are not coincidental, they represent a major test for political parties in the context of competition within the coalition, but also for AUR, the main opposition party, aiming to quickly take power.
The call to vote for 1.7 million people, ten percent of the total number of voters in the country, signifies the start of a race that will create a dominant political hierarchy until the parliamentary elections in 2028.
The election of a mayor at the helm of the Capital in place of Nicușor Dan, who has moved to the Cotroceni Palace, also means the electoral validation of the future leader of the winning party or alliance, with an impact on the internal structures of political formations.
For this reason, discussions are so tense and have such high stakes around the candidacies and the organization of the election for the new mayor of Bucharest.
According to opinion polls published last week, the following individuals are expected to enter the race for the Capital: Daniel Băluță (PSD), the mayor of Sector 4, Ciprian Ciucu (PNL), the mayor of Sector 6, Cătălin Drulă (USR), a deputy and former party president, Anca Alexandrescu or George Simion from AUR.
"The issue is that we have elections in a single round. In fact, we, the USR members, support the return to a two-round voting system. If a majority were to be found in Parliament, we would still have time to return to two rounds as a signal of reform and to organize these elections under this system," stated Cătălin Drulă for Spotmedia.ro.
"On the other hand, in the current context, with the current system and the configuration in Bucharest, it is desirable to have a joint candidacy from USR and PNL, a desire that has been expressed by the presidents of the two political formations," added the former USR leader in an interview with Spotmedia.ro.
Through the above statements, Cătălin Drulă proposes two courses of action. The first would be for each formation to have its own candidate, but with the condition that the parliamentary majority of PSD, PNL, USR, UDMR would modify the law, and mayors would be elected again in two rounds of voting.
If there is no political will within the coalition for such a change, then his proposal is for PNL and USR to have a joint candidate.
Coalition Breakup Due to the Mayoralty
PSD, through the voice of Sorin Grindeanu, the interim leader of the party, opposes it, considering that an association between the two formations represents an action of isolating the social democrats, which would inevitably lead to the breakup of the governing coalition.
"If PSD has a candidate in Bucharest and loses, the party and its president face yet another defeat, at a time when PSD seeks to recover from the disaster of November 24 and to find an adequate response to the existential threat coming from AUR. A defeat would be an extension of the electoral nightmare and a political signal that will weigh heavily in the public perception of the party," explained Costin Ciobanu, a political scientist and researcher in political science, for Spotmedia.ro.
"... the elections in Bucharest... would be a tough test not only for the coalition, for which each day represents a major test, but especially for PSD, which still has a storm to face, at a time when nothing is clear within the party," added Costin Ciobanu.
For the Social Democrats, this time, the issue is not the candidate's name, as the support enjoyed by Daniel Băluță in Sector 4 of the Capital has solved this problem, with Gabriela Firea being sidelined. The major challenge is to create a favorable context for the PSD candidate, in order to maximize their chances of victory.
Therefore, Sorin Grindeanu stated that the elections for the Mayor of Bucharest and the other vacant positions in local administration should take place in the spring. The PSD leader hopes that, by then, following austerity measures, the liberals and the USR members will lose public support, and thus Băluță will have the first chance.
If not, the other option for PSD is to have a joint candidate from the governing coalition, with the main goal being to avoid another defeat in an important political competition.
Good News for Liberals
For the first time since Crin Halaicu, mayor of Bucharest from 1992 to 1996, the liberals have the chance to return to the helm of the Capital through Ciprian Ciucu, after three decades.
Crin Halaicu, the only liberal mayor of Bucharest after 1990, had a single term and was suspected of corruption - Source: Wikimedia Commons
The success in administering Sector 6 has provided him with a path to win the electoral race for Bucharest even on his own.
"PNL will have its own candidate, only following a more in-depth analysis. Yes, it's true, according to our polls, which are real, I am doing well. This somehow obliges me, but I would not want to announce a candidacy or rush until we have an election date and until we have a discussion with all coalition partners," stated Ciprian Ciucu.
"If I were to run and be supported by USR, I would win by a landslide, as the latest poll data suggests, and if Mr. Drulă were to run supported by PNL, he could win by a narrow margin, but it's risky. If there were a PNL-PSD candidate, again they would win by a landslide, whichever it may be, me or Mr. Băluță," added the liberal mayor.
In the absence of two rounds of voting, as would be democratic, calculations, negotiations, and alliances that take place before the start of the electoral campaign are crucial.
The winner is the candidate with the broadest support, who must garner more votes than opponents without needing to obtain a majority.
A Political Test for Nicușor Dan
PSD, PNL, and UDMR will never agree to amend the law on the election of mayors, considering that such a change would reduce the number of mayors they currently have.
For this reason, it is unlikely that in the situation where elections are organized in November, as the law provides, PSD or AUR would win the mayor's office, even in the most improbable scenario, that they would enter the race with a joint candidate.
Also, in the event that he runs, Ciprian Ciucu has the first chance of winning in any situation, supported by PNL or in an alliance with USR.
For Cătălin Drulă, despite the support of President Nicușor Dan, it will be difficult to overcome Ciucu's popularity, who has changed the face of the most neglected sector of the Capital in the five years he has been administering it.
"We have a coalition formed at the national level based on an agreement related to governance... We do not have any other type of agreement. Nowhere is it specified that in the case of local or partial elections, parties are obliged to have a candidate in one form or another. One thing is one, another is another. They are completely different things...," stated Cătălin Drulă for Spotmedia.ro.
The same idea is supported by Ciprian Ciucu, who says that the local elections have no connection to the governance agreement concluded by the four political formations.
"The elections in Bucharest are important from the perspective of at least two issues: the crisis of traditional parties, after the parliamentary and presidential elections, each formation needs a victory, and the control of the Capital's City Hall is not just any victory, but also the fact that Bucharest represents a major selection for higher positions, let's think about the cases of Traian Băsescu and Nicușor Dan, city mayors who became presidents," stated political scientist Costin Ciobanu for Spotmedia.ro.
Indirectly, the elections for the Bucharest Mayor's Office are also a political test for President Nicușor Dan, who has publicly shown his intention to support Cătălin Drulă. It is not clear at this time whether the new president has the necessary negotiating power to create an alliance around the USR candidate.