George Simion’s electoral event, held on Saturday in London, was a disaster. Instead of being greeted with enthusiasm, he was bombarded by bloggers and influencers who started asking him questions. The AUR leader did not respond, sneaking into the room where contact with the public was filtered by his team.
Shortly before taking the stage, a participant shouted „Nicușor Dan,” eliciting negative reactions from AUR supporters.
The person who whistled in the church was escorted out while filming the incident. The post became viral on social media a few hours later.
Another video shows that after his speech, Simion exited through a back door, got into a yellow van, and quickly left, refusing to talk to supporters, take photos, with many commenting that they came from hundreds of kilometers away for the electoral event and were ignored.
LONDON. George Simion, in the yellow car, refused to talk to those who attended his electoral event - Source: TikTok/ Cristi Irimuș
The above episode, the fact that the date for the next TV debate has not been set, controversial statements such as thanking the US for permanently removing Romania from the Visa Waiver Program for Romanian citizens, indicate a campaign in disarray a week before the final vote.
But it shouldn't have been this way. Simion won the first round of the presidential elections with a double score compared to his opponent Nicușor Dan.
The Debate That Changed Everything
Initial calculations regarding the redistribution of votes favored the AUR leader, who, confidently, emerged from self-imposed isolation in the first round to maintain support for Georgescu, announcing his participation in debates.
There were two debates, one organized by the National Trade Union Block, more atypical, where candidates answered questions from those present in turn, and the second, held on Thursday, May 8, by the TV station Euronews Romania, in a classic format of confrontation between candidates.
The second debate had a strong impact on viewers. That evening, the audience reached 2 million viewers on TV, its YouTube channel, and Facebook page.
But the debate was also live-streamed on TikTok, and the circulation of images, reactions, and comments afterwards surpassed 5 million, according to some estimates.
Four days after the debate, it is quite clear that George Simion has lost ground to Nicușor Dan, and public opinion's support has shifted towards the mayor of Bucharest, with Simion losing momentum.
"Two weeks ago, there was a 17-point difference in the simulations for the second round between George Simion and Nicușor Dan. 17 percentage points that melted in just a few days...," announced Remus Ștefureac, director of the public opinion polling institute INSCOP.
He stated on Friday that Simion's advantage is now only four percent, and the main cause of the decline is the market's reaction, leading to the devaluation of the national currency.
Everything That Helped Simion Has Turned Against Him
Such a lack of confidence in the AUR leader is based on everything he has done so far, and on the fact that he failed to dispel suspicion in society or at least part of it during the televised debate on Euronews Romania.
He maintained his bully attitude, using everything that had helped him establish himself in Romanian politics: aggressiveness, general messages, verbosity, sensationalism, and baseless promises.
All of the above tools were successful with a dissatisfied audience, with less political understanding and prone to confrontations with authorities or those who contradict them.
We have a direct discussion with the TV stations that invited us, which are Digi – Monday, Antena 3 – Tuesday, RTV – Wednesday, TVR – Thursday, Antena 1 and ProTV – Friday. We confirmed our attendance at each one. Obviously, technical aspects need to be discussed, how long it takes. (...) There are six very respectable television stations, and we accepted the invitations from all of them.
Nicușor Dan, presidential election candidate
For years, the classic method to strengthen his AUR leadership stature was to provoke tensions, protests, and clashes with law enforcement, with other parliamentarians, so that the violent episodes would land on social media and evoke emotion, viewership, and support.
But guerrilla tactics no longer worked when the stage became larger, i.e., the country, and the stakes were matters of life and death, not minor issues, many of them false, with which Simion juggled.
When it came to Romania's economy, jobs, unemployment, health, and education, and people truly paid attention, Simion's attitude disappointed; he failed to present himself as a trustworthy leader.
This was evident in the only televised debate so far. At the time of writing these lines, no other meeting between the two in front of TV cameras has been confirmed, and this is not due to Nicușor Dan, who accepted all dates proposed by TV stations.
The AUR Bubble
"Simion is not losing because of gaffes, but because only now does he find out how those who are not his supporters think...," wrote journalist Pavel Lucescu in an interesting Facebook post.
"For years, Simion communicated through channels other than mainstream ones (press, TV, radio). For years, he communicated in the underground of the media ecosystem, on social media channels whose algorithms rolled, magnified, and amplified his messages to thousands and tens of thousands of fan bubbles or potential voters or through direct contact with people at events with restricted access.
He rarely participated in events with a large audience or those organized by others. What broke through beyond these tribes, now called sovereignist by him, which were also multiplying from year to year, was still controlled by him and his communication team," explained Pavel Lucescu.
"Paradoxically, politicians accuse some representatives of the press of not understanding reality, of living and working in a bubble and not reaching the deep Romania, while the situation shows exactly the opposite: more and more politicians isolate themselves, create echo chambers where they hear the echo of their own voices and thoughts, and when they actually reach a position of leadership or national-level election campaigns, they are shocked by how they are received and the reactions towards them," observed the journalist.
Risky Strategies
In my opinion, those who believe that Simion does not want to win the elections or has given up are mistaken.
He had a strategy that didn't work, and now he's trying to find a saving solution. Negative campaigns on social media continue as before; he and his team are trying to deliver a decisive blow.
One of the strategies proposed by Simion's advisors is to no longer participate in debates with Nicușor Dan, to try to maintain the electoral advantage he still has and to address voters individually at events, focusing on his supporters and Georgescu's supporters.
At the same time, they aim to invest in a negative campaign against his opponent to motivate as many voters from the disgruntled public as possible.
However, Simion has reached a point where both strategies present risks. Participating in debates to attract new votes could put him at a disadvantage, as has been the case so far, while the other strategy, focused on sovereignist supporters, may not bring him additional votes, leaving him largely with what he obtained in the first round.