The numbers below are milestones to help us understand who is losing and who is winning after Sunday’s elections. Political leaders will try to present the results in their favor, leading to a plethora of statements, public positions, and comments that will create a strong noise that tends to cover up the truth.
If the noise is set aside, the numbers will precisely describe where we stand and the balance of political forces in Romania.
The numbers below must be viewed in context, each depending on the other. For example, if Nicușor Dan wins by a large margin in Bucharest, it is very likely that PSD will obtain a lower score than expected in the local elections, and Gabriela Firea will finish in third place.
Also, if the current mayor loses the elections, PSD could be the big winner.
The numbers below are purely indicative and have been estimated based on the candidates' expectations, leaders' statements, the number of votes needed to claim a political victory in one race or another, as well as the scores obtained by parties four or five years ago (the European elections took place in 2019).
10% - Nicușor Dan wins the Bucharest City Hall by a margin of more than ten percent.
It means he has strong support from the people of Bucharest. They are satisfied with his first term and continue to give him credit.
It will be easy for him to form a majority in the General Council, with the possibility that the Liberals and United Right will agree, especially since they will need the mayor and his votes in the campaigns for the presidential and parliamentary elections.
20% - Gabriela Firea receives less than 20 percent of the votes from the people of Bucharest.
She would fade into the background, her influence in the PSD evaporating. Marcel Ciolacu will use the weak result to consolidate his power within the party and will try to unite the internal factions, having a better chance from the perspective of a presidential candidacy.
Gabriela Firea's political career would be in jeopardy. On the other hand, if she wins the Bucharest City Hall, she will become number one in the PSD, with all the consequences that follow.
10% - Sebastian Burduja gains ten percent of the voters' preferences in the Capital.
It would be a great victory for the PNL representative, who could become a solid alternative for the Liberals in their attempt to regain the Bucharest City Hall sometime in the future.
Finally, they would have a candidate validated by a portion of the voters, seen as an alternative to Nicușor Dan.
A percentage around 5 and a fourth place in the hierarchy of competitors would mean a harsh defeat for Sebastian Burduja and the possibility of giving up a future mayoral candidacy.
60% or more, voter turnout in Bucharest.
It signifies a high interest in the elections. The result, combined with good turnout nationwide, would indicate a desire for change and great dissatisfaction, with the possibility of major surprises at the polls.
50% - The PSD-PNL Coalition wins over 50 percent of the votes in the European election.
The result would indicate that there is still strong support for such a political alliance.
The leaders of the two parties will be forced to consider the possibility of a joint candidate for the presidential elections and to negotiate such a solution.
40% - The PSD-PNL Coalition wins less than 40 percent of the votes in the European election.
In such a situation, the alliance between the two formations will end, with each party being required to nominate its own candidate for the presidency.
There will be attacks and confrontations between the PSD and PNL, but also a possible alliance on the center-right side, between the Liberals or a portion of them and the United Right.
25% - PNL obtains a political score in the local elections below 25 percent.
The result would be a failure for the party led by Nicolae Ciucă, but also a sign that the liberal leader is vulnerable on his way to Cotroceni, needing a broader coalition of parties.
Such a score, put in the context of the results obtained by other political formations, could even lead to internal tensions in the PNL and a change in leadership.
30% - PSD obtains a political score in the local elections below 30 percent.
It would be a major defeat and trigger a crisis within the Social Democrats.
Marcel Ciolacu's leadership would be questioned, and the arrival of Mircea Geoană at the helm of the party would no longer be an extraordinary event.
25% - The United Right Alliance obtains a score of over 25 percent in the European parliamentary elections.
The figure would represent a political success, a validation of the new coalition, and a solid foundation for negotiations with the PNL or factions within this party, with the perspective of forming a broader political front to isolate the PSD, as well as the AUR.
PSD and PNL run together in the European elections, therefore, the score obtained there is difficult to distribute between the two formations. To have a hierarchy, the political vote from the local elections must be taken from the Liberals and Social Democrats, and at the United Right, the two results can be compared, the one from the European elections with the one from the local elections.
10% - The difference between PSD and PNL in terms of the political vote in the local elections is more than 10 percent.
If such a situation arises, it means either the result obtained by the PSD is very good, or the PNL score is very weak.
In both cases, the collaboration between the two formations will break, and neither will gain a political advantage from such an association.