Why did US and Israel attack Iran and how long could the war last?

Why did US and Israel attack Iran and how long could the war last?

The conflict has spread in the Middle East after the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed during the attacks launched by the US and Israel on Saturday, followed by a call from US President Donald Trump for Iranians to overthrow the government.

Iran responded by launching missiles and drones in the region, targeting Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, and ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Shiite Muslim militia group Hezbollah in Lebanon, supported by Iran, joined the fighting by launching rockets at Israel from its bases in Lebanon. Israel responded with attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

BBC presents, in an extensive analysis, how the US and Israel's war with Iran has unfolded so far, how it has affected the region, and how long it could last.

What's Happening in Iran?

The US and Israel launched widespread attacks on Saturday, targeting missile infrastructure, military sites, and high-ranking Iranian leaders.

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Khamenei, who has led Iran since 1989, was killed when his complex in Tehran was destroyed during the first wave of attacks.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) say that dozens of high-ranking Iranian political figures and leaders within the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have also been killed, including Secretary of the Defense Council Ali Shamkhani, Defense Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh, and IRGC Commander General Mohammad Pakpour.

IRGC later appointed a new chief commander, Ahmad Vahidi.

Internet connectivity in Iran has been almost entirely restricted, and its airspace has been closed. The Iranian military continued to have the capability to launch retaliatory attacks.

The US and Israel carried out multiple attacks on Sunday, hitting the capital and other areas. Trump stated that Iran's naval headquarters was destroyed. On Monday, the US Central Command (Centcom) announced that it had sunk 11 Iranian ships in the Gulf of Oman, leaving Iran without ships in the area.

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Why Did the US and Israel Attack Iran?

Trump stated that the purpose of the operation is "to ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon". "We will destroy their missiles and demolish their missile industry. It will be completely destroyed again," he said in an eight-minute video posted on Truth Social on Saturday morning.

He also warned the Iranian armed forces to lay down their arms in exchange for "complete immunity" or "face certain death".

Trump urged the Iranian people to prepare to overthrow the clerical establishment: "When we're finished, take over the government. It will be yours."

The massive military operation comes after weeks of threats from Trump that he would order military action if Iran did not agree to a new deal on its nuclear program.

Iran has repeatedly stated that its nuclear activities are entirely peaceful.

How Did Iran React?

Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones at Israel, several Middle Eastern countries with ties to the US, a British military base in Cyprus, and ships off the Iranian coast.

The IRGC stated that it targeted Israeli government and military sites in Tel Aviv and elsewhere, while nine people were killed when a residential area in Beit Shemesh was hit.

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The Ministry of Defense (MoD) of the UK confirmed that a drone hit the British base Akrotiri in Cyprus. No one was killed or injured in the attack.

Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait - all hosting American military bases - were targeted, as well as Oman and Saudi Arabia.

On Monday, more attacks were heard in the Gulf, including in the cities of Dubai, Doha, and Manama. The Iranian military stated that it used 15 cruise missiles in attacks on a US airbase in Kuwait and ships in the Indian Ocean.

Civilian locations, including hotels in Dubai, were hit, as well as military installations. The US and Arab allies issued a joint statement condemning Iran's attacks on the Gulf states, stating that "targeting civilians and countries not engaged in hostilities is reckless and destabilizing behavior."

On Monday, three American planes were shot down over Kuwait in an incident the US military called friendly fire. The pilots survived.

Six American military personnel were killed in action by Monday, as confirmed by the US military.

A new front in the conflict opened on Monday when Hezbollah attacked Israel, prompting the IDF to target sites in Beirut and southern Lebanon. The armed group is allied with the Iranian government and stated that it is seeking revenge for Khamenei's assassination.

Lebanese officials stated that dozens of people have been killed or injured in the attacks so far, while Israel urged residents in 50 villages to evacuate, awaiting possible further operations that could last "several days."

How Safe Is It to Travel in the Region and How Long Could the War Last?

On Saturday, Trump stated that the attacks on Iran will "continue unabated throughout the week or for as long as necessary," but later suggested a longer timeframe.

The US President told The New York Times on Sunday that the US and Israel could maintain operations at the same pace for four to five weeks.

Speaking at the White House on Monday, Trump said, "We've projected from the very beginning four to five weeks, but we have the ability to go much longer than that."

On Saturday, Netanyahu stated that "this campaign will continue as long as necessary."

Thousands of flights were disrupted to and from the region, in one of the most severe disruptions of global travel since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Emirates, based in Dubai, temporarily suspended operations to and from Dubai - but resumed a "limited number of flights" on Monday evening.

Virgin Atlantic canceled two flights to Heathrow on Monday - one each from Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia - while others were rerouted.

British Airways canceled flights to Tel Aviv and Bahrain and stated that they are "closely monitoring the situation."

Wizz Air suspended flights until March 7 to Israel, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi, Amman, and Saudi Arabia.

The Kuwaiti aviation authority stated that it is halting all flights to Iran until further notice, according to state media.

Lufthansa, Air India, and Turkish Airlines also announced cancellations.

Some countries in the region - including Iraq and Jordan - also closed their airspace.