The memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, which President Trump claims will be signed soon, provides for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without transit fees and a return to pre-war shipping volumes within 30 days. In exchange, the American blockade is expected to be lifted.
The memorandum would extend the ceasefire by 60 days, including in Lebanon, during which negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program would take place.
The text includes a framework for managing Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, but any concrete measures regarding the nuclear program would depend on a second, much more detailed agreement, according to a diplomat from one of the mediating countries and an American official, as reported by Axios.
The diplomat stated that "the US and Iran have agreed on the text of an agreement," but acknowledged that final approval is still needed. Trump has mentioned that he expects a signing ceremony over the weekend.
Four US Air Force C-17 planes departed for Europe on Thursday, carrying equipment for a possible visit by Vice President Vance to a signing ceremony in Geneva in the coming days.
The agreement not yet approved by Khamenei
On Thursday evening, the agreement was approved at a high level in Iran, but probably not by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, according to two sources familiar with the situation.
A spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Tehran "has not yet made a final decision."
The White House has repeatedly believed, in the past two months, that an agreement was close to completion, but negotiations have failed each time. The diplomat expressed optimism that this time the text will be kept in its current form.
Behind the scenes
According to two diplomats from two mediating countries and two American officials, the provisional agreement was reached on Wednesday evening after hours of negotiations between Qatari mediator Ali Al-Thawadi and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
During the discussions in Tehran, Al-Thawadi spoke several times on the phone with Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, according to two sources.
Trump's announcement that an agreement had been finalized surprised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In recent days, Netanyahu has been left uninformed and has contacted close allies of the Trump administration to get details, according to an American source with direct access to information.
Unclear aspects
It is not clear if the text includes detailed explanations regarding the billions of Iranian dollars frozen in foreign accounts.
Iran has insisted on receiving a portion of the funds immediately after the initial agreement is signed, while the US has argued that these should be released in installments, depending on compliance with the obligations undertaken.
An American source outside the administration expressed concern that the frozen funds issue could be addressed through a separate secret agreement.
In recent days, the US, Iran, and Qatar have discussed a mechanism through which Iran could access some of its frozen funds in Qatar for the purchase of humanitarian goods, according to an American official and a source from one of the mediating countries.
What's next
If both parties ultimately decide to sign, the agreement - jointly mediated by Qatar and Pakistan - will be named the "Islamabad Agreement."
"We are working with the parties to finalize the last details of the agreement and to set the date for the signing ceremony," stated the diplomat from one of the mediating countries.