The German research institute Kiel warned on Wednesday that military aid to Ukraine could reach its lowest level by 2025, as Europeans, who currently provide the majority, fail to compensate for the halt in American support.
„According to data available until October, Europe has failed to maintain the momentum from the first half of 2025,” noted Christoph Trebesch, who leads the Kiel Institute team monitoring military, financial, and humanitarian aid promised and provided to Ukraine since the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, as reported by AFP.
Before withdrawing, at the initiative of Donald Trump upon his return to the White House in January 2025, the United States provided more than half of the military aid. Initially, Europeans managed to offset this loss, but with the onset of summer, they could no longer cope, according to the Kiel Institute.
"If this slowdown continues in the coming months, 2025 will become the year with the fewest new allocations of aid for Ukraine since 2022," Trebesch warned.
In the first ten months of 2025, Ukraine was allocated military aid of 32.5 billion euros, mainly from Europe. In just two months, Ukraine's allies would need to allocate over 5 billion euros to match 2022, when aid was at its lowest (37.6 billion euros), and over 9 billion euros to reach the annual average of 41.6 billion euros between 2022 and 2024.
However, from July to October, only an average of 2 billion euros was allocated each month.
Spain has not allocated any new military aid
According to researchers at the Kiel Institute, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have doubled or even tripled their contributions, while Italy's support decreased by 15%, and Spain has not allocated any new military aid for 2025.
The European Commission is currently trying to access approximately 200 billion euros from the blocked Russian central bank assets in the European Union to finance a loan to Ukraine. The aim is to release an initial sum of 90 billion euros at the summit of heads of state and government scheduled for December 18 in Brussels.