Summer is approaching its end, but Ukrainian authorities are not on track with preparations for an inevitable energy crisis.
On the last day of summer in Kiev, city residents took full advantage of the warm weather, sunbathing on the sandy banks of the Dnieper River, even as dozens of drones were being shot down. However, as the sun sets over the last warm weeks, memories of the past winter return, when homes were left without heating and electricity for weeks, with temperatures dropping to minus 25 degrees Celsius.
Ukraine has not yet fully repaired the damages caused by Russia, while Moscow seems to escalate the conflict, producing a record number of jet-propelled drones and ballistic missiles, amidst Ukraine's depleted air defense resources, writes The Kyiv Independent.
"I dream that this winter will not be as harsh as the previous one. But I think, probably, it will be worse," said Tamara Stukalenko, a 75-year-old woman. "Now, Russia has brought a new system for us: these constant air alerts. And when the heating season comes, they will probably launch even more (attacks). And that is frightening."
Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal stated on August 31 that Ukraine is prepared to enter winter with a planned generation capacity of 19.6 gigawatts (GW) by November and with solid reserves of gas and coal. However, most people expect this winter to be tougher or at least as challenging as the previous one, when Russia destroyed 9 GW of energy generation capacity.
Small Steps and Huge Problems
Behind the government's optimistic messages, authorities have made small progress in addressing the fundamental issues of the energy crisis in the past seven months, despite a "Energy Resilience Plan" announced in March, several energy sector officials told the cited publication.
The plans aimed to ensure the protection and timely repair of installations, as well as the installation of additional reserve equipment for heat and energy supply. However, these are far from being completed, as Ukraine lacks funds, equipment, air defense systems, and energy specialists, and there are no clear solutions to address these problems, the respective officials stated.
The government announced in March that national resilience plans would involve $6.2 billion. However, without the support of allies such as the EU, it has only managed to allocate 62.7 billion hryvnias (1.4 billion dollars) from the budget so far.
From here, the problems branch out:
- Kyiv cannot redirect funds from the 90 billion euro loan granted by the EU, as it would have to sacrifice funding in other areas, such as pensions or satellites for the military, said an energy advisor speaking under anonymity.
- In the absence of these funds, local authorities - facing a liquidity crisis, especially in regions on the front line - encounter difficulties in implementing plans, as they largely depend on the national budget for funding.
- Meanwhile, funding disputes between the government and municipal authorities in Kyiv have led to the approval of the capital's plan only on August 31. Critics have also questioned the quality of the plans themselves, some stating that they were merely a PR maneuver.
- At the same time, Kyiv authorities have failed to build gas pipelines to connect the city to decentralized heating sources, meaning that some areas of the capital will be left without heat when Russia begins to attack power plants, an energy advisor stated.
"Resilience plans lack a methodology, nor a basic framework to define the objectives they should achieve. Therefore, these plans are episodic; they lack a systemic approach and are developed solely to create a favorable image," said the director of a local heating company last week during an energy-themed roundtable, according to meeting notes consulted by Kyiv Independent.
Meanwhile, thermal power plants and cogeneration plants will require increased anti-aircraft protection against ballistic missiles, as, due to their impressive size, it is impossible to build concrete shelters around them, said Oleksii Orzhel, head of the Kiev office of the Energy Community Secretariat, to Kyiv Independent.
Ukraine Competes with Data Centers
While President Zelensky calls for new Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, the Energy Community Secretariat is trying to secure funding of 650 million euros (754 million dollars) for the Energy Support Fund, to purchase resources for Ukraine's central grid - especially high-voltage equipment for the national grid operator, Ukrenergo.
However, by mid-August, the fund had attracted less than half of this amount, as the delivery of certain equipment can take between one and two years, Orzhel noted.
Since the beginning of the year, allied countries have also sent approximately 5,000 equipment items for decentralized energy systems - such as generators - to ensure a reserve energy source in vulnerable regions. However, certain essential equipment, such as mobile gas turbine units, are now harder to procure than last year, said an energy advisor who wished to remain anonymous.
"We are competing for these turbines with data centers worldwide, due to the AI boom. Prices are rising, and waiting lists are getting longer," he stated.
If There Are Equipment, There Are No Specialists
Even when energy equipment reaches its destination, there is another problem: a major shortage of specialists capable of installing, operating, and maintaining them. The issue reached a critical point last winter when donated units remained unconnected during a humanitarian crisis because no one knew how to use them.
Since then, some energy sector specialists have been exempted from military service, but in smaller regions their numbers are simply insufficient, said Viktoria Gryb, a deputy and chair of the parliamentary subcommittee on energy security.
Additionally, the government has not developed any plans for training or recruiting new specialists, she added.
Financial Blockage Stops Heating
Local state heating companies are also stuck in a vicious circle of debt. A national moratorium prevents them from raising heating tariffs, while the state has not fully compensated them for the cost difference, leaving them with debts of $1.7 billion.
Without this reimbursement, local heating companies cannot pay the over $2.2 billion owed to the state energy giant Naftogaz for gas purchases; as a result, Naftogaz freezes their accounts, preventing them from buying the necessary equipment to repair damaged installations before winter arrives.
However, instead of resolving the central government problem, representatives of local heating companies claim they are ignored when trying to discuss with ministers.
Many Consider Leaving Kiev
Amid a new corruption scandal facing the government, some Kiev residents express doubts about Ukraine's leadership capacity. Last winter, many criticized the government for the crisis in Kiev and felt that emergency measures were adopted too slowly while enduring freezing temperatures in their own homes.
This year, the capital authorities are preparing for a new crisis by setting up temporary shelters for over 200,000 residents, said a Ukrainian official familiar with the situation to the cited publication. However, considering that Kiev's population exceeds three million residents, these shelters will only serve a small part of the city.
Many residents are considering leaving Kiev if they are left without heating and electricity. Given the high number of pensioners remaining in the capital, Kiev authorities are going door-to-door to offer vulnerable residents the possibility of temporary relocation.
So far, approximately 1,300 elderly individuals, 400 children with disabilities, and 500 adults with disabilities have expressed their willingness to move to a safer location, as announced by the Kiev City Administration.
However, the vast majority prefer to remain in their own homes, with authorities offering to provide them with food, transportation assistance, and social support instead.
T.D.