Many ordinary people and leaders in the Western world, especially those in Ukraine, would rejoice at the news of Putin’s death and dream of the idea of justice being applied directly with drones on the Russian president. But such a fantasy would clash with a grim reality.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has plenty of reasons to look over his shoulder and above his head. A document from European intelligence services, recently revealed by Financial Times, shows that Putin’s security has been significantly strengthened, say intelligence services, with more checks, fewer assistants, restricted movements, and limited communications.
A leader who trusts fewer rooms, fewer phones, and fewer assistants does not preside over a calm succession machine. And that's the big problem. The gangster-style politics system in Russia is built around one man: Putin. This system would be most dangerous at the moment that man suddenly disappears, as stated in an analysis published by Newsweek.
The State Built by Putin
Putin has spent a quarter of a century becoming the arbiter, patron, and court of appeal of the Russian system, pitting elite factions against each other so they compete for his favors - a key to wealth and success in modern Russia. Few substantial political things happen without his explicit or tacit approval.
Vladimir Putin has built this vast personal power, substantially reducing the control influence of institutions and individuals around him. He is now the center of the universe in the Russian state, and his implosion would leave a black hole where everything is swallowed.
Ukraine undoubtedly represents a serious threat to Putin and has demonstrated the ability to strike deep targets inside Russia, including Moscow, either through drones or special operations planting car bombs.
But the most serious threat to Putin likely comes from within the mafia state he has created; an opportunistic and ambitious rival, sensing both advantage and a window of opportunity given the disastrous state of the economy and the flawed handling of the war in Ukraine, may try to take his place.
The potential clearly exists. Just look at the recent past, recommends Newsweek: in June 2023, mercenaries from the Wagner Group led by Evgeny Prigozhin seized the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and advanced towards Moscow, then abruptly stopped. Prigozhin later died in a suspicious aviation accident. Putin emerged victorious this time.
Who Could Succeed Putin
According to the mentioned intelligence report, tensions have escalated between Russian security services, including disputes involving the FSB, military leadership, Rosgvardia, and the Federal Security Service, regarding the protection of top officials from assassins.
The same report correlated concerns about Sergei Shoigu's network and the risk of a coup against Putin with the arrest of former Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Tsalkov in March 2026.
Regarding possible successors, Newsweek mentions several options:
- Alexei Dyumin, former bodyguard of Putin and presidential advisor.
- Sergei Kiriyenko, Kremlin official overseeing domestic policy, propaganda, and managed elections.
- Dmitri Patrushev, Deputy Prime Minister and son of Putin's close friend and advisor Nikolai Patrushev, representing a youthful form of continuity of the aging intelligence elite, "siloviki," to which his father belongs.
Future extremists, such as Nikolai Patrushev or Alexander Bortnikov, the current director of the FSB, may count more as veto players over certain competitors than heirs themselves.
But none of these names solve the main problem of the system, namely Putin's indispensable role as its central element. He is a kind of unifier of factions, using force and threat to keep them balanced and pacified through a consensus assumed that he and only he is the legitimate leader.
What Would Follow Putin
The current Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin, would serve according to the constitution as interim president immediately if Putin were to die. Behind Mishustin, where the real power lies, a knife fight would begin among elite clans for supremacy.
The instinctual idea "anyone but Putin" is tempting. But Russia is not a parliamentary system waiting for an opposition leader to walk through the front door and present a democratic plea to a free electorate capable of voting based solely on conscience. It is an autocracy in wartime, with intelligence chiefs, military commanders, presidential guards, oligarch interests, and regional intermediaries, whose fate depends on their proximity to coercive power and often competing against each other.
The elite's acceptance of any interim president can be uncertain, as Russian institutions are weak, and presidential authority is unusually concentrated. The successor with the best chance of survival is the one who can scare the others.
Newsweek also presents the opposite scenario: Putin's sudden disappearance could create an opening for a successor who seeks an easing of sanctions, a respite on the front, or a less harsh relationship with the West. There are plenty of opportunities in these regards.
But this possibility belongs to a later phase, after a leader has survived the initial struggle. Even then, it would require a general shift in mindset among officials from a system Putin created in his own image over 25 years.
And most potential successors seem to have accepted Putin's geopolitical strategy, based on imperial expansionism, anti-Western antagonism, and a realism of coercive power.
The immediate test for Putin's successor would not be moderation or reflection, a kind of destalinization for the 21st century. It would be taking control of coercive institutions, elite money, battlefield command, and a hyper-nationalist narrative of Russia's greatness. In simpler terms, Putinism with a different face. And perhaps even more furious.
A Devil We Know Somewhat
Russia's structural weaknesses will not limit its explosive potential in a succession struggle. On the contrary, they could turn a fire into hell. The state of Russian society and the challenges that await it are concerning.
A state under this mix of military pressure, elite suspicion, rampant crime, and economic conflicts could become less predictable but also more aggressive.
Putin would struggle to control these forces. Imagine how a contested leader or a war between Kremlin factions would fare. It's a recipe for a contagious chaos that would spread throughout Europe.
The West already knows Putin's methods well, even if it has reacted slowly to the threat he poses. It has dealt with him since the beginning of the millennium and now understands that Putin respects only hard power, not weakness or gentleness. That's how he truly believes the world works.
The West Must Be Prepared
Would the Russia-NATO relationship be less conflictual if Putin left? Would it be easier to achieve a peace agreement in Ukraine without Putin? Perhaps. At least he is an old devil allies know well. Better with him than with a new, untested figure who emerged from a violent struggle at the palace and seeks to assert himself as the new strong leader, as Newsweek points out.
Foreign powers have little direct influence on Russia's succession, but they should prepare for this eventuality, emphasizes the American publication.
This preparation should include allied coordination on nuclear signaling, continuity of sanctions, risks of escalation on the battlefield, and recognition policy if Moscow factions compete to speak on behalf of the state.
Putin's sudden death would end the reign of a man without ending the system he created. An uncontrolled collapse of Russian state leadership would mean a crisis with nuclear stakes, armed factions, and an already ongoing war.
Conclusion? Be careful what you wish for. Putin's death could solve one problem. But it could create dozens of others, concludes the publication.
T.D.