Putin met with Xi Jinping and other leaders at the SCO summit in Kyrgyzstan, but the meeting will likely fail to mask a deeper trend: Moscow is losing its allies, influence, and much of the soft power it once held.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping took advantage of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit held on Monday in Kyrgyzstan to highlight the strengthening of relations and promote their vision of a multipolar world.
Approximately 12 heads of state gathered in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek for the two-day summit of this regional bloc which aims to position itself as a counterbalance to Western influence in the world.
Among the participants at the anniversary summit (the 25th edition) of the SCO were Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Xi told Putin that he was glad to see him and stated that the Russo-Chinese relations have become "stronger," while Putin declared that this cooperation is developing "successfully on all fronts."
However, the diplomatic spectacle in Bishkek should not be confused with a geopolitical turning point, said analyst Paul Goble, an expert on Eurasia, to Kyiv Post.
"We may see some bilateral initiatives. Meetings scheduled for discussions periodically – as this one is – tend not to generate major developments that have not been announced well in advance. I think that, in a week, we will no longer be talking about any 'spirit of Bishkek' or about Bishkek as a turning point," he said.
Russia's Shrinking Circle
Asked about the statement by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who admitted in an interview with the Russian publication RBC that Moscow no longer has the allies that the Soviet Union had during World War II, Goble responded decisively: "Russia has no allies because, for most countries in the world, Russia is an enemy. It actively destroys the international order that has existed since the late 1940s and until very recently."
However, unlike in World War II, when a common enemy united Moscow and the West, Goble argued that, at present, Russia itself has become the adversary of a large part of the world.
Pariah Countries Attract Few Allies
Russia finds itself increasingly among the states isolated on the international stage.
"We are dealing with pariah states, states viewed with reluctance and even hostility by others. And Russia is one of them," the analyst said.
"Pariah countries can cause many problems, but they rarely attract allies. The world knows that the price of an alliance with such states is too high and is not willing to pay it," he added.
According to him, even the countries that maintain close ties with Moscow are unlikely to align with Russia's position in the war against Ukraine.
"What we are seeing is a gradual decline in Russia's power," Goble said.
Putin Has Destroyed Moscow's Influence
For Goble, Russia's issue goes beyond formal alliances.
"Russia is no longer attractive. One of the things that Putin has managed to do is to destroy most of Russia's influence power," the analyst said, adding that the image of Russia as a modern power in full development has largely disappeared.
"What we see now is that Russia resorts to brute force whenever it believes it can get away with it, and this does not attract people. There are very few who want to associate with such an approach," he explained.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has massively intensified its military and economic cooperation with Iran, while North Korea has provided troops and weaponry to Moscow. However, Goble dismissed the idea that these relationships equate to authentic alliances.
"Both Iranians and North Koreans feel isolated enough to cooperate with this other pariah state. But this happens because they are all pariahs, not because they have found an ally. It is cooperation motivated by the fact that these countries cannot find allies, not because they have found one in Russia," detailed the analyst.
Ukraine's Resistance Changes Washington's Calculations
On the other hand, Russia's inability to defeat Ukraine has started to change calculations in Washington.
Paul Goble stated that President Donald Trump "appreciates winners," and the continued resistance of Ukraine on the battlefield has increasingly shown that Moscow will not achieve the overwhelming victory that Putin initially sought.
"The ongoing strength of the Ukrainian army has convinced even Trump that the Russians will not win. By simply resisting, the Ukrainians will emerge victorious, so to speak," Goble said.
This means that if Washington wants a resolution to the conflict, it must increasingly convince Moscow that Russia is forced to make compromises. "The Russians will get something out of any agreement, but they will not get what Putin wants: the extension of Russian dominance to Lviv, on the border with Poland, and the disappearance of the Ukrainian state," Goble stated.
If Putin Does Not Stop, He Will Lose More. And Trump Knows That
The analyst cited long-range Ukrainian drone strikes as an example of how the cost of war is increasingly felt within Russia.
"Ukrainian drones have practically caused a gas crisis in Russia, which is rapidly spreading beyond the country's borders, weakening Russia's influence and power in the Caucasus and Central Asia. The longer this war lasts, the more such crises will arise," Goble said.
On the other hand, Russia's continuous attacks on Ukrainian civilians also shape Americans' perception of the war, convinced that the Russians are actually "the guilty party in this conflict."
According to the analyst, domestic politics also matter to Trump, especially in the context of the Congressional elections, and Americans largely remain in solidarity with Ukraine, even if there are differences of opinion regarding the extent of the assistance provided by the US.
"You will see Ukrainian flags in people's yards and on their homes. You will not see Russian flags," the expert said, referring to communities in the United States.
In his view, Trump has every interest in giving the impression that he is "more pro-Ukrainian than he was before" because this is "a beneficial domestic political strategy."
Putin can still appear alongside Xi, Modi, Pezeshkian, and other leaders, presenting Russia as a pillar of an emerging multipolar world. However, beyond the image created during the summit, Goble sees a country increasingly dependent on China, cooperating with Iran and North Korea amid mutual isolation, losing its "soft power," and bearing increasing economic and political costs due to the war against Ukraine.
Therefore, the SCO summit may offer Putin the opportunity for photos and statements on cooperation, Goble argues. But this does not change the fundamental trajectory of Russia's declining influence and power.
T.D.