A Russian attack on a NATO country is possible as early as this autumn, after a peace agreement is reached in Ukraine, warned military expert and historian Sonke Neitzel. „Unfortunately, the expression ‘last summer of peace’ is no longer something completely unreal,” he said.
„We are witnessing a global security situation that has been set in motion by Putin and Trump. We see that Russia has announced large-scale exercises in Belarus. There is a strong fear in the Baltic countries that, during these exercises, Russian troops could cross the border. And we see that Article 5 of the NATO treaty may not work, at least for the USA. Deterrence is weakening,” said Sonke Neitzel, a professor at the University of Potsdam, in an interview with the German newspaper BILD.
Neitzel explained that the risk of a war breaking out in Europe depends on several factors: "Whether such a war will break out depends on how NATO as a whole reacts, on the role played by Trump, on the role played by the Europeans, on the existence of peace in Ukraine, no matter how it looks."
However, the German expert emphasizes that Russia will not start a conflict with NATO before reaching a peace agreement with Ukraine: "Because I don't think Putin would take such a step as long as he still has to fight in Ukraine. Unfortunately, the expression 'last summer of peace' is no longer something completely unreal, but it can happen," Neitzel stated.
He hopes that Europeans will be able to face the threat if the US does not support them in case of war, even though they did not take the lead in a recent war. "Remember the Kosovo war: 75% of the airstrikes were led by the US. In Iraq and Afghanistan, Europeans were, strictly speaking, only auxiliary troops. And when the United States left, so did the Europeans, even though we have 500 million citizens in the EU. We have always been in the shadow of the USA," he said.
At the same time, "democracies are capable of many things," the expert believes, pointing out that other strong countries remain in NATO: "Canada remains in the alliance. There are encouraging signals from Paris, London, and now from Berlin that maybe we, Europeans, are finally learning to stand on our own feet."
Another warning about a possible Russian attack on Europe came on Monday from Poland, but the timeframe suggested is more generous.
According to Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, a Russian aggression is possible before the end of this decade. Although Russia currently cannot defeat Ukraine alone, if it manages to exploit the potential of this country, it could become powerful enough to extend the war to other countries, he said, according to Agerpres.
"Currently, Russia cannot defeat Ukraine alone, but if it could fully utilize the entire industrial, human, and military potential of Ukraine, the balance of power would change. Therefore, we must prepare for Russia's capacity to engage in a broader aggression towards the end of the decade," Sikorski stated on TOK FM radio.
The Polish minister explained that Russia's current inability for a broader offensive is due to its involvement in the war against Ukraine, but he warned that "a forced surrender of Ukraine and, for example, Russia's capture of Ukrainian industrial and human resources, including the Ukrainian army, the largest in Europe on the allied side, would be something that would completely change the situation."
T.D.