Retired Canadian Lieutenant General Christopher Coates believes that a lasting peace in Ukraine is unlikely as long as Putin remains in power. He stated that only a Ukrainian military victory or the death of the Kremlin leader could create sustainable conditions for stability.
Following a visit to Ukraine, Coates noted that Russia is a declining power facing increasing economic and military pressures. He emphasized that Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil infrastructure are strategically significant, weakening Moscow’s revenues and war capabilities.
A former commander of Canada's Joint Operations Command, Coates told Ukrinform that he remains confident in Ukraine's ability to continue resisting Russia, but warned that Moscow is waging a fundamentally different war.
"I have confidence in Ukraine, but I have no illusions about the scale of the challenges," he said, noting that Ukraine operates with limited resources while Russia faces fewer constraints.
Russia's Major Vulnerability
Christopher Coates argued that Russia's main strategic weakness lies in the nature of the war itself.
He stated that Russia is "waging an illegitimate war," adding that Putin's country is not fighting for survival but for a political objective, spending vast resources for limited gains.
Coates mentioned that the Kremlin continues to rely on propaganda and media control to maintain internal support, but warned that such systems are inherently fragile over time.
"A system built on lies eventually begins to collapse from within," he said, adding that sustained personnel losses and economic decline will gradually erode Russia's ability to sustain the war.
He described the current phase of the conflict as a "decision point" rather than a complete strategic shift, noting that while Ukraine is gaining ground in some areas, the situation remains fragile.
"For me, the tide is turning in favor of Ukraine," he said, characterizing Russia as a declining power increasingly forced into a "horizontal escalation," extending pressure beyond the battlefield as its military advances stagnate.
At the same time, Coates emphasized that Ukraine has not yet achieved an irreversible advantage, warning that Russia continues to adapt and that minor performance changes could further alter the war's trajectory.
Ukraine Has Changed the War
Coates also highlighted Ukraine's rapid technological adaptation, stating that the war has fundamentally altered modern warfare. He pointed out the combination of scale and precision in Ukrainian drone operations, reshaping expectations regarding the cost and effectiveness of military systems.
"Drones have not replaced traditional military power - they have added a new dimension," he said, noting that the speed of innovation and counter-innovation is now happening "almost in real-time."
He added that Ukraine's experience reveals weaknesses in Western defense production models, which largely rely on expensive and limited production systems, while Ukraine has demonstrated the strategic impact of cheaper, mass-produced technologies.
One of the most significant developments is Ukraine's ability to adapt commercial technologies for military use, he said, mentioning digital command systems like DELTA.
A Possible Victory
Christopher Coates was direct about the conditions he deems necessary for a sustainable resolution of the war.
"The death of Putin. That is the first necessary condition," he said.
"Unfortunately, I find it very hard to imagine a lasting peace as long as Putin remains in power. I only see a military victory for Ukraine as a more fundamental basis for such peace," Coates added.
Territorial concessions would, at best, only create a temporary pause, explained the Canadian general, warning that Russia's imperial ambitions could resurface if its capacity is restored.
Coates also stressed that Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure play a strategic role, arguing that they reduce Moscow's revenues, force resource dispersion, and have psychological and morale effects on both sides.
"These attacks will not determine the war's outcome, but they are an important part of a broader strategy," he concluded.
T.D.