On day 1176 of the war, Russia continues aerial attacks. The air defense system neutralized most of the 145 drones that entered Ukrainian airspace, but the Russian army also launched a ballistic missile whose target remains unknown.
Russians attacked the cities of Nikopol and Marhanets in the Dnipropetrovsk region in the morning with artillery and FPV drones, causing multiple damages. The attacks did not result in casualties.
In Russia, an attack with drones took place, with at least 16 people injured in the Belgorod region. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that 12 Ukrainian drones were destroyed.
Moscow's troops are advancing on the front, and sources from Ukrainian intelligence services told the Financial Times that Russia is preparing a spring offensive, despite ceasefire discussions expected this week.
Meanwhile, on the "diplomatic front," uncertainty persists regarding Vladimir Putin's presence at direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, scheduled for Thursday in Istanbul. A former high-ranking official from the Kremlin told the Washington Post that the Russian president will not come to Turkey.
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Nevertheless, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio da Silva will also attempt today to persuade Putin to meet with Zelensky in Turkey.
Meanwhile, ambassadors from the 27 EU member states adopted the 17th package of sanctions imposed on Russia on Wednesday.
And NATO member states are meeting today and tomorrow in Turkey to negotiate an increase in their military spending, hoping to convince US President Donald Trump, who has threatened "bad payers" that he will no longer defend them.
Frontline Situation
- Downed Drones - Russia launched a Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile and 145 drones last night. Ukrainian air defense units shot down 80 drones. Another 42 decoy drones disappeared from radar without negative consequences, announced the Ukrainian Air Force, without specifying if the missile was neutralized. The attack affected the regions of Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa, Donetsk, and Kirovohrad.
- Nikopol Attack - Russians attacked the cities of Nikopol and Marhanets in the Dnipropetrovsk region in the morning with artillery and FPV drones, destroying two tall buildings, seven shops, a sports club, a pool, and a power line. Serhii Lisak, the head of the regional military administration, announced that no casualties were reported.
- Moscow Prepares Major Offensive - Russia appears to be preparing a major offensive in Ukraine as it moves its units to key positions on the front, according to sources from Ukrainian intelligence services cited by the Financial Times. These preparations indicate Moscow's efforts to escalate the war, despite ceasefire discussions expected this week and requests from Kiev and its partners for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Russia has rejected ceasefire proposals unless they are accompanied by stopping military aid to Ukraine and continues ground attacks along the front and long-range airstrikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. Approximately 163 clashes occurred on the front in the last day, reported the Ukrainian army on the morning of May 14. The monitoring group DeepState announced on Monday that Russian forces have recently advanced in Toretsk and near Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, and today announced that they have advanced in the localities of Malinivka, Bahatir, and near Novosilka in the same region. Kiev has warned of a major spring offensive by Russia, aimed at capturing as much territory as possible to strengthen its position in potential negotiations. Chief Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi declared in April that this campaign "has effectively started" with the intensification of Russian attacks.
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What's Happening in Russia
- Drone Attack in Belgorod - Several drone attacks by Ukraine on the Belgorod region injured at least 16 people on Tuesday, announced the governor of the southwestern Russian region, Viacheslav Gladkov, on Telegram. Among the injured are a doctor and a paramedic, he said. Eight people were hospitalized, he added. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that its units destroyed 12 drones launched by Ukraine overnight, three of them over the Belgorod region. Moscow only reports the number of drones destroyed, not how many drones Ukraine launched.
Peace Negotiations
- Putin Not Going to Istanbul - Putin will not personally participate in Thursday's summit with Ukraine in Turkey, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and presidential adviser Yuri Ushakov representing Russia at the Istanbul talks, a former high-ranking official from the Kremlin told the Washington Post. The newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda had previously reported the same information, but the article was quickly removed. A source familiar with the preparations also told Agentstvo that Ushakov and Lavrov could lead Russia's delegation. According to this source, Vladimir Putin has no intention of participating in the discussions. "For now, Ushakov is the one expected. Lavrov might join, but that hasn't been decided yet," the source cited by Agentstvo said.
- Lula Wants to Convince Putin - Brazilian President Luiz Inácio da Silva stated today that he will personally urge his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to meet with Volodymyr Zelensky in Turkey for negotiations on a ceasefire in Ukraine, as reported by AFP. "I will try to talk to Putin. It doesn't cost me anything to say 'hey, comrade Putin, go to Istanbul and negotiate, what the hell'," said Lula at a press conference in Beijing, before a stop in Moscow.
- Zelensky Appeals to Trump - Zelensky says Trump must understand that Putin is an obstacle to peace. "Trump must believe that Putin is really lying. And we should fulfill our part. Approach this issue sensitively to show that we are not the ones slowing down the process," he said in Kyiv. Zelensky promised to go to Turkey on Thursday, regardless of whether Putin will come for discussions or not. Zelensky stated that he arranged to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara but will be ready to fly to Istanbul immediately if the Russian leader shows up. "If Putin does not come and plays games, it is the final point that he does not want to end the war," said the Ukrainian president on Tuesday.
- Macron Relies on Ukrainian Lucidity - French President Emmanuel Macron stated on Tuesday in an interview with TF1 that Ukrainians have the "clarity to say" that they will not be able to recover all territories at the end of the conflict with Russia, mentioning that Kiev will not join NATO due to a lack of consensus on the issue, as reported by AFP. "The war must end, and Ukraine must be in the best possible position to enter negotiations," which "will make it possible to address territorial issues," said the French head of state, recently returned from Kyiv. "And even the Ukrainians themselves have the clarity to say (...) that they will not be able to take back everything that has been taken from them by Russia since 2014," he added, without naming any specific region. The Russian army currently occupies approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, and Moscow has proclaimed the annexation of four regions in the south and east of the country, in addition to Crimea unilaterally annexed in 2014.
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Other Relevant Information
- New EU Sanctions on Russia - Ambassadors of the 27 EU member states adopted the 17th package of sanctions imposed on Russia on Wednesday. These new sanctions are independent of the "massive" sanctions considered in case Moscow refuses to negotiate and accept a 30-day ceasefire, agreed by Kiev. Details HERE.
- NATO Discusses Increase in Military Spending - NATO member states are meeting in Turkey today and tomorrow to negotiate an increase in their military spending, hoping to convince US President Donald Trump, who has threatened "bad payers" that he will no longer defend them, as reported by AFP. The United States is urging the 32 NATO member states to allocate at least 5% of GDP to defense - a very substantial increase that many countries consider unattainable. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte presented a two-step offer - as a possible compromise - which maintains the 5% of GDP objective, dear to Donald Trump, but includes non-strictly military expenses. This idea was well received on Tuesday by US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker. The increase in military spending that the 32 NATO member states are negotiating ahead of a summit scheduled in The Hague - on June 24 and 25 - "will include all the necessary capacity objectives of NATO allies to deter and defend, but also things like mobility, infrastructure, cybersecurity," he assured in a press conference. "This goes far beyond missiles, tanks, and howitzers," he added.