Internal disturbances in recent years have been suppressed by the regime in Tehran by force. This time it could be the last.
National protests in 2017, 2018, again in 2019, and most dramatically in 2022 have been forcefully suppressed. Each time, the regime has survived relying on the same grim strategy: denying the legitimacy of the protesters, blaming foreign enemies, disrupting communications, and unleashing security services.
Today, Iranians are on the streets again. And, once again, the regime seems to respond as it always has - with brutal violence.
Brett McGurk, a global affairs analyst at CNN who held leadership positions in national security under Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden, explains if this time the final outcome will be different.
Women, life, freedom
In September 2022, protests erupted throughout Iran after Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurdish woman, was detained by the country's morality police for allegedly violating Iran's strict dress code by showing her hair. She died in custody. Mahsa's death triggered a nationwide revolt not only against the compulsory hijab laws but also against the Islamic Republic itself.
The United States and its allies publicly supported the protesters. The Biden administration took steps to expand access to internet services, including through satellite connections and virtual private networks. The U.S. Congress passed the Mahsa Amini Human Rights and Accountability Act. New sanctions targeted Iranian officials and institutions involved in the repression.
None of this was enough. According to a subsequent United Nations inquiry, Iranian security forces killed over 500 people and detained around 20,000 during the crackdown. The protests were ultimately suffocated by months of violence, fear, and exhaustion.
What's different now
This year's protests would have started in the Grand Bazaar of Iran and around it, the heart of Iran's commercial class. That matters. And the disturbances that led to the 1979 revolution in Iran began there.
Iranian merchants are not revolutionaries, preferring the stability of the uncertain order of rapid change. But Iran's poor economic governance, with 50% inflation, along with a crisis in basic services, has generated economic discontent, along with long-standing political and moral demands for regime change.
The protests sparked in Tehran quickly spread throughout the country, now active in all 31 provinces of Iran.
Supreme Leader Khamenei responded on the 13th day of unrest with familiar rhetoric, dismissing protesters as foreign mercenaries and enemies of the state.
The language signals a possible crackdown, as happened in 2022. By the past weekend, the country was in a communications blackout and reports of an increase in casualties have emerged once again.
At first glance, the stage seems set for a bleak replay: protests, repression, survival of the system. However, three factors make this moment different. It may not lead to an immediate collapse, but it will certainly shape the days and weeks ahead in Iran, as CNN's analysis shows.
1. The Islamic Republic is weaker than ever
The leadership of Iran made a fateful decision after October 7, 2023, when it chose to support and then join a regional war against Israel.
Khamenei is the only world leader who openly praised the Hamas massacres in Israel that day and soon authorized Iran's representatives in the Middle East to support Hamas's maximalist demands and then to attack Israel - as well as the Americans.
This regional dimension of the crisis does not overlook the horrors in Gaza following the war triggered by Hamas. But today's situation cannot be understood without it.
In a moment of horror, Iran chose to join the chaos. It did nothing to support negotiations and end the crisis - and instead chose to escalate it. Eight months after the start of the Gaza crisis, Khamenei said Israel was in a "dead end" and "completely misjudged the capabilities of the resistance front led by Iran."
He was wrong about that. Until Joe Biden left office, Iran's defense systems had been shattered. President Trump tried to reach a nuclear deal with Iran, but when those talks stalled and the war in Gaza resumed in March, the United States joined Israel in a military campaign that significantly degraded Iran's leadership and war-fighting capabilities.
The combined U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear sites shattered Tehran's sense of strength and deterrence and left it vulnerable to further attacks. This was not Tehran's goal when Khamenei chose to join Hamas in a broader war, instead of pressing Hamas to release the hostages and end the war. It was a choice Khamenei had to make, but he chose wrongly.
2. Iran is facing a succession crisis
Khamenei is 86 years old and in his fourth decade in power. During the June war, he was absent from public view. In a system built around the myth of an all-present supreme leader with purported religious authority to rule over more than 90 million Iranians, this absence had major effects.
With the loss of many of Khamenei's top lieutenants during last summer's war, Iran's decision-making apparatus is now being tested - as factional rivalries vie for positions in anticipation of Khamenei's exit from the stage.
Even without the current disturbances, Iran is on the brink of systemic change. One potential outcome is its evolution from a clerical-led Islamic theocracy to an intransigent nationalist state led by its security structures.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij militias within the country have extensive experience in suppressing popular demands through mass violence. There have been no signs yet that these structures are fracturing due to defections. But the impending succession crisis, together with a new sense of vulnerability and increasingly pronounced popular unrest, combine to create unique conditions for revolutionary change. This yields some parallels with the uprising that engulfed Iran 47 years ago and led to the Islamic Republic.
3. There is now a credible external threat
Trump has warned that the United States will carry out military strikes if Iran responds to protests with violence. In the past, Iranian leaders might have dismissed such threats as bluster, but after the U.S. bombed its nuclear facilities last summer, they can no longer do so. Many of these Iranian leaders have been killed, and their replacements will think about their own survival.
Targets exist. The Israeli attacks in June would have targeted the Basij militia - one of the main tools of internal repression. The U.S. could also choose to target the leaders responsible for the massacres. However, unlike the American attacks in June on Iran's nuclear facilities, which had been repeated for many years, such operations would be more dynamic and uncertain.
Beyond military actions, Trump could tighten the enforcement of sanctions against Iran, which currently exports nearly two million barrels per day, despite a U.S. policy announced last year to "reduce Iran's oil exports to zero." This should be done regardless of the situation.
Trump announces that any country doing business with Iran will be subject to a 25% tariff
Trump can also work with top American technology companies to support measures that would allow Iranians to overcome the communications blackout during the regime, while encouraging allies to join U.S. sanctions against Iran's repressive structures.
The 3 forces at play now
At this moment, three forces converge in Iran and Washington:
- Protesters. The courage of Iranians risking their lives to overturn a system that oppresses them and exports terrorism abroad should be supported in every possible way, the expert says. Despite early reports of brutal repression, the protests have not stopped and are likely to continue, albeit in smaller numbers.
- Repressive state. The coercive apparatus of the Islamic Republic is preparing with the only strategy it knows - suppressing its own people with mass violence, snipers on rooftops, Basij militias on the streets with live ammunition, raids, and mass executions.
- The U.S. Threat. CNN reported that Trump will be briefed on military options early this week. Previously, he wrote that the "U.S. is ready to help" and detailed that this means "hitting them very, very hard" if Iran were to start "killing people as they have done in the past."
Currently, considering the spread of protests and the Iranian regime's actions to violently suppress them, the moment of Trump's decision - if and how - will likely come soon. Regardless of the choice made, the goal should be maximum support for the Iranian people and their desire for systemic change.
Is a Diplomatic Solution Possible?
Late Sunday night, Trump stated that Iran has attempted to initiate discussions.
The first issue that should be addressed promptly is the mass killing of their own people. If Iran is not willing to discuss this, which is unlikely, then there isn't much to talk about.
Iran's ambiguous talks about a nuclear program now buried underground would be insincere and an attempt to buy time and relieve mounting pressure. America should not be fooled by this, concludes Brett McGurk.
T.D.